2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[Outlaw]

These polls are way too close we just have to hope Trump doesn't overperform like 2016/2020 I guess

How does the gender gap not give you assurance?

Trump’s gambit was men and they aren’t showing up

 

[GhostoftheMan]

Oprah platformed Dr. Oz and Dr. Phil



She keeps getting fooled by these scammers

I mean coming from "let's put the kkk on tv and have black people debate them" actually follows really well in just chasing the dollar

 

[Squirrel from Meteor Man]

Good Morning


why is this country so stupid

It’s always important to remember that the white people who “founded” this country were white people who were too stupid, too poor, too sick, or too criminal to make it in Europe. These are their bloodlines.

 

[acri1]

How does the gender gap not give you assurance?

Trump’s gambit was men and they aren’t showing up

Republicans have been encouraging their voters to vote early this round. Not to mention 2020 was an extremely weird year and lockdowns were going on.

So I'd be cautious about taking much of anything from early voting patterns. You have to make a lot of assumptions about who's voting and 2020 isn't a good baseline. If the gender gap still holds up on election day that would be different.

 

[Outlaw]

Republicans have been encouraging their voters to vote early this round. Not to mention 2020 was an extremely weird year and lockdowns were going on.

So I'd be cautious about taking much of anything from early voting patterns. You have to make a lot of assumptions about who's voting and 2020 isn't a good baseline. If the gender gap still holds up on election day that would be different.

If more republicans are voting early wouldn’t that create a more balanced Election Day?

 

[Piff Huxtable]

If more republicans are voting early wouldn’t that create a more balanced Election Day?

Yes

 

[Loose]

Election interference!

 

[Trips]

the fact that these people still think people are stupid and that they can pivot away

Morgan Freeman voice: it turns out that most people are that stupid and will go with the pivot.

 

[Sghost597]

 

[Trips]

Oh look at that Nate flips again.

 

[Jx2]

Honestly, it’s fukk Nate Silver.. he’s a poll grifter ()

Let’s move on from this clown

 

[Poetical Poltergeist]

 

[JBoy]

I mean, i think you're oversimplifying the move to the center right.

Yes, Dems have moved to the center right on issues like immigration.

But Kamala is also campaigning on fighting price gouging by companies, lowering prescription drug prices, an increased child tax credit, homecare benefits for Medicare, etc.

Let's not let our narratives get in the way of the facts, some of you talk like she's running on a Joe Manchin platform.

I think many on the left of the spectrum just refuse to admit that Americans area a right wing leaning populace overall and a lot of Conservative types actually vote for Dems and there are a ton more of those types than dyed in the wool Progressives in the dem camp, our country has started to become culturally more liberal overall and I think that causes many to overestimate this into a more outwardly left wing Democratic party that is just "oppressing" the progressive wing when really many of the party's base is still fairly boring centrists with a often Conservative streak and this is who has to be catered to.

 

[Wepa Man]

Last Night Rally

 

[Piff Perkins]

How do you reconcile the high quality polling showing her tied nationally or trailing, i remind you hillary and biden won the popular vote by over two points, polls are showing she is at best tied or slightly ahead by less than a point which is a troubling case for harris, the early voting pattern in NV is another indicator , jon ralston the guy who called the presidential race in 2020, the senate elections in 2022 and is a reliable figure says she is in trouble, the earling voting electorate in georgia shows a far more white electorate than prior, that isnt a strong indication harris is going to win, right now is possible the election is called quite early for trump on election day.

If the polls were being weighed like 2020, Harris would be up similarly in national polls. The problem is twofold. On one hand the serious, high quality pollsters are constantly over sampling unlikely or unreliable voters in order to get odd results that favor ties. On the other hand, just like in 2022 we're seeing bullshyt polls from republican firms that show ties or slight Trump leads. The aggregates like RCP throw it all in the same pool and here we are.

NV is full of older voters and anyone who has paid attention to elections knows old people vote first, younger people vote later or at the last minute. Given the huge gains democrats made in NV this past weekend, especially from Clark, it's clear what's going on. If they election was this Tuesday then sure I'd agree with Ralston. But it's not.

The Georgia numbers look good for Harris. The black numbers out of Atlanta look amazing and if you think the huge spike of young white women voting in Fulton County is good news for Trump/republicans, I have a bridge in Alaska to sell you.

The early voting numbers in MI and PA look really good for Harris as well. I haven't seen anything that gives me pause or concern yet.