2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[Loose]

I agree she should be in front of gen z

 

[the cac mamba]

Like the adversity Trump receives going on right wing podcasters wearing Trump shoes and maga hats?

no, the adversity he gets going to the National Association of Black Journalists or giving unscripted press conferences to reporters

i see i've touched a nerve on this subject. my apologies

 

[Frump]

I agree she should be in front of gen z

I do to but I don’t think it’s because they don’t think she can come off well in a interview

I think Dems get paranoid because they listen too much to the small online fickle and hall monitor/fun police part of the base who complain about everything and might criticize her for going on one of these pods who might be right leaning and complain that they’re misognystic or homophobic or whatever and say they won’t vote for her because of that

 

[AVXL]

WTF is he talkin about?

 

[Piff Perkins]

 

[Sghost597]

 

[Macallik86]

To those that don't know he was an Obama pollster senior advisor/communications director that used polling insights to craft better talking points for Obama) and a co-founder w/ Pod Save America (he typically is on Thursdays). He is kinda like Dems version of Frank Luntz w/o the sliminess.

What was ironic was that Doug Emhoff was on Pod Save America yesterday and they asked him about the disaffected men issue. He's a surrogate at best, but his answer (that men need to get used to being more supportive of women getting equality) was tone-deaf AF and I am to the left of Kamala. They need to speak better to males having such higher rates of suicide, depression, high school drop outs, etc compared to women and try to right that ship as well.

I don’t think going on these podcasts is gonna move the needle in the election he’s already preaching to the choir here

There is a huge overlap between the comedy podcast world the right wing pods and MMA all whom will vote for Trump anyway

I do think Dems should go on some of these pods not that would help in this election but for future ones so young Men of that generation don’t all go completely MAGA

Hopefully Dems do try to do that eventually and don’t listen to the fringe part of the base that thinks Dems being pro football with Walz this election is somehow a bad thing and an example of toxic masculinity

They are a huge swath of the population that vote inconsistently. I don't know how to even encroach that demo because they would approach a Democratic interview from a place of distrust and gotcha journalism that wouldn't be productive, but inroads need to be made somehow.

I still trust his polls (and everyone trusted them when they showed Dems ahead and gaining momentum) but he needs to STFU. Kamala going on some low-brow sh!t like Joe Rogan/Theo Vonn to make in-roads is a suicide mission

 

[FAH1223]

Damning

 

[Loose]

@FAH1223 why does nate have a convention bounce criteria in his model? Seems obvious this isn't a normal election cycle. Trump didn't receive one after his convention either did kamala, these are good polls for her I'm confused why his model is taking 2 points off because of " convention bounce "

 

[Frump]

Two good polls both from A+ polling for Kamala today and Nate still doesn’t give a single fukk. Trumps chances actually improved somehow

 

[Jx2]

Chris, as a voting citizen of your state, all of us and I literally mean all of us Dems/rethugs can’t wait for you to be gone next year. You’ve exposed yourself as an abject spineless piece of nepo baby shyt who despite all of your drum beating and gum flapping fell right back in line to sucking the fat man t*ts of your Orange Daddy. Go away fukkboi

 

[Macallik86]

@FAH1223 why does nate have a convention bounce criteria in his model? Seems obvious this isn't a normal election cycle. Trump didn't receive one after his convention either did kamala, these are good polls for her I'm confused why his model is taking 2 points off because of " convention bounce "

Not directed at me but he answered readers' questions and touched on this... He minimized convention bounces during the covid elections but tried to revert to what historically happens more in 2024 to avoid overfitting I'm guessing:

<insert previous paragraph about various adjustments made to the 2020 model due to Covid>

This year, by contrast, we’ve tried to stick to the model’s preexisting logic as much as possible, even though the way events have piled on top of one another — such as RFK Jr. dropping out the day after the DNC — is not ideal. One reason the model has moved so much on new Pennsylvania polling, for instance, is because since earlier polling occurred before what the model considers to be two “landmark events” — the convention and a candidate exiting the race — so the model looks at older polling as being really out of date. Might it be overdoing things a bit? Sure. But I don’t think there’s anything inherently wrong with how it’s handling these circumstances, either, and it’s also naturally self-correcting (e.g. if/when Kamala Harris gets some better Pennsylvania polls, her numbers will improve). The model has closely followed prediction markets throughout these periods, which seems like a good sign.

The convention bounce adjustment is one of those things that keeps me up at night, though. It can make the model's behavior counterintuitive, e.g., Harris gaining in the polling average while losing ground in the forecast. Given that convention bounces are smaller than they used to be, maybe we could treat them as a rounding error in future years, like by saying that Harris’s numbers were likely to be a little inflated for a few weeks in the narrative explanations we provide, but not making any specific adjustment for the convention in the model itself.

SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?

Plus, the mistakes I made in the “data journalism” era.

www.natesilver.net

 

[the cac mamba]

i wish i could say, for sure, that american voters arent stupid enough to fall for this nonsense

 

[Frump]

To those that don't know he was an Obama pollster senior advisor/communications director that used polling insights to craft better talking points for Obama) and a co-founder w/ Pod Save America (he typically is on Thursdays). He is kinda like Dems version of Frank Luntz w/o the sliminess.

What was ironic was that Doug Emhoff was on Pod Save America yesterday and they asked him about the disaffected men issue. He's a surrogate at best, but his answer (that men need to get used to being more supportive of women getting equality) was tone-deaf AF and I am to the left of Kamala. They need to speak better to males having such higher rates of suicide, depression, high school drop outs, etc compared to women and try to right that ship as well.

They are a huge swath of the population that vote inconsistently. I don't know how to even encroach that demo because they would approach a Democratic interview from a place of distrust and gotcha journalism that wouldn't be productive, but inroads need to be made somehow.

I still trust his polls (and everyone trusted them when they showed Dems ahead and gaining momentum) but he needs to STFU. Kamala going on some low-brow sh!t like Joe Rogan/Theo Vonn to make in-roads is a suicide mission

You think if the election was today Trump would have a 62 percent chance to win? Because that’s what he’s saying

He also bumped Trumps chances up today when Kamala had two good polls from A plus pollsters so this isn’t me being bias from a logic standpoint this isn’t making much sense how he adjusts odds day to day with his polling

It seems to me he has to fill content everyday so instead of saying “look alot of junk polls have come out recently there is no update it’s a 50/50 race” saying Kamala keeps slipping for God knows what reason gets more clicks/views from scared Dems


I agree with you on those pods. I think going on Lex Friedman would be ok

He doesn’t aeem hyper partisan and while he’ll ask tough questions it won’t be for a “gotcha” moment

 

[Loose]

How soon to Ana turns republican ? She out here tweeting about Venezuelan gangs?