2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[Frump]

My advice is to actually listen to Democrats close to the campaign (and/or with previous campaign experience). They aren't pulling a rope-a-dope. They are telling us publicly that despite the changed landscape, we still have an uphill battle, and that momentum in Democratic circles != being (comfortably?) ahead. We need to get more independent/undecided/unlikely voters to turn out to win in key states.

There have been numerous quotes in this thread but each time they were written off as not knowing what they are talking about because they were on Clinton's campaign or just trying to run the score up, etc. That is why your disdain/distrust for every Nate Silver tweet is so ironic.

Spoiler

And here's a clear example that Nate did include the Dems +6 poll in his model contrary to what you insinuated:

Or they aren’t trying to repeat 2016 and don’t want to get complacent in a close race. I’m not saying they are up by a ton. In todays day and age every election is gonna be somewhat close

Silver isn’t infallable if you want to believe him over others fine but there is no evidence that he is better at it then everyone else

The actions of Trump and his campaign lately aren’t that of someone who thinks they are up imo

 

[Sghost597]

My advice is to actually listen to Democrats close to the campaign (and/or with previous campaign experience). They aren't pulling a rope-a-dope. They are telling us publicly that despite the changed landscape, we still have an uphill battle, and that momentum in Democratic circles != being (comfortably?) ahead. We need to get more independent/undecided/unlikely voters to turn out to win in key states.

There have been numerous quotes in this thread but each time they were written off as not knowing what they are talking about because they were on Clinton's campaign or just trying to run the score up, etc. That is why your disdain/distrust for every Nate Silver tweet is so ironic.

Spoiler

And here's a clear example that Nate did include the Dems +6 poll in his model contrary to what you insinuated:

No matter how vile Republicans get... The NeverDems would rather watch the country burn down in flames than vote Dems..

 

[Sghost597]

 

[Sghost597]

 

[Macallik86]

On a related note to my last post, I think a lot of the misguided perspectives on the odds of victory are because some of the shared content is based on who is popular as opposed to who is informed/credible. For example, I saw this tweet reposted by multiple people in this thread the other day:


Lots of engagement on the tweet but is it coming from a reputable source? Is the guy saying it informed on the topic? Does he have a background in politics? Polling? Running campaigns?

A quick search for him online & his Facebook:

When we are listening to an IT Recruiter for political analysis, it makes sense why we have some misguided perspectives on the race

 

[mastermind]

For example "Defund the Police" is one of the biggest acts of political suicide in the existence of liberal ideas.

It's always the extreme language of ideas that turn off voters when "Reform The Police" is much effective language and it would actually work.

Defund the police isn’t a liberal idea and hasn’t been implemented anywhere.

And the language of reform the police has been used for At least 50 years and all we’ve gotten is body cameras.


You brehs talk about misinformation, your post is basically that.

 

[Frump]

On a related note to my last post, I think a lot of the misguided perspectives on the odds of victory are because some of the shared content is based on who is popular as opposed to who is informed/credible. For example, I saw this tweet reposted by multiple people in this thread the other day:


Lots of engagement on the tweet but is it coming from a reputable source? Is the guy saying it informed on the topic? Does he have a background in politics? Polling? Running campaigns?

A quick search for him online & his Facebook:

Why are we reposting political hot takes from an IT Recruiter

It has nothing to do with him there are a lot of credible pollsters who think Kamala is up

If you think Silver is right and they are wrong fine but don’t act like people are crazy for believing anyone but Silver

 

[mastermind]

On a related note to my last post, I think a lot of the misguided perspectives on the odds of victory are because some of the shared content is based on who is popular as opposed to who is informed/credible. For example, I saw this tweet reposted by multiple people in this thread the other day:


Lots of engagement on the tweet but is it coming from a reputable source? Is the guy saying it informed on the topic? Does he have a background in politics? Polling? Running campaigns?

A quick search for him online & his Facebook:

When we are listening to an IT Recruiter for political analysis, it makes sense why we have some misguided perspectives on the race

When I say Blue MAGA, what your post details is what I mean. Too much hopium and not enough reality.

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

Damn good answer.

 

[Macallik86]

When I say Blue MAGA, what your post details is what I mean. Too much hopium
and not enough reality.

Thanks!

You're still a bad-faith sh!tty poster tho

There's a difference between me telling fellow Democrats to avoid cognitive dissonance and embrace the race (and data) as it is, versus you calling people cacs, saying they post too much in TLR so their opinion doesn't count, both-siderism bullsh!t, etc

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

For example "Defund the Police" is one of the biggest acts of political suicide in the existence of liberal ideas.

It's always the extreme language of ideas that turn off voters when "Reform The Police" is much effective language and it would actually work.

Breh, I've said this before. Back in 2022.

A lot of times, you lose people over the messaging. We all know that measures need to be taken with law enforcement but Republicans will pervert any and everything if not pitch perfect on the wording. Looking at it through that prism, simply saying Defund the Police is not smart. There should be something along the lines of reeducate the police or realign the police. Hell, BLM as a slogan could have been better by saying Black Lives Matter Too. That last word would have changed the dynamic of the whole argument. I have no problem with the movements as they are necessary but we need to get people to hear us too.

 

[mastermind]

Thanks!

You're still a bad-faith sh!tty poster tho

There's a difference between me telling fellow Democrats to avoid cognitive dissonance and embrace the race (and data) as it is, versus you calling people cacs, saying they post too much in TLR so their opinion doesn't count, both-siderism bullsh!t, etc

No problem.

And yes, that poster is a white boy who offers nothing but what he sees on cable news

And I have no idea what both siderism bullshyt I’ve shared, but if what I said upset you then I feel great.

 

[Piff Huxtable]

Defund the police isn’t a liberal idea and hasn’t been implemented anywhere.

And the language of reform the police has been used for At least 50 years and all we’ve gotten is body cameras.


You brehs talk about misinformation, your post is basically that.

"Defund the police" is just bad politics
it doesn't take a mastermind to see that

 

[mastermind]

"Defund the police" is just bad politics
it doesn't take a mastermind to see that

Ok

 

[Reality Check]

He probably needs to lay off the bath salts.