2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread: Donald Trump wins & will return to the White House; GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House

[Sghost597]

I think he only believes in choice to get him or his buddies out of the possible consequences of their infidelities and whatever he was doing with his buddy Jeffery Epstein

 

[the cac mamba]

 

[Frump]

 

[Piff Perkins]

The benefit of complete control of a blue state

 

[the cac mamba]

 

[Macallik86]

[nate silver]fukk all that, what is the only credible pollster, rasmussen saying?[/nate sliver]

What he actually said yesterday:

Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.

The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.

Now, all of this could change quickly with one or two high-quality polls showing Harris ahead in the Keystone State. The model is relying more heavily than I’d prefer on the Emerson College poll as it’s the only fully post-DNC/RFK data point — although note, again, that the immediate pre-DNC polls hadn’t been great for Harris in Pennsylvania either.

And here are the FIVE most recent polls out of PA.

Notice above the influence column has Rasmussen ranked the worst in the model and so it has a lessened impact on the model too.

Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris

The Electoral College/popular vote gap is increasing in post-DNC data.

www.natesilver.net

I'm sure Kamala's strategists are on it. No need for a circle-jerk, beating up the messenger or burying our heads in the sand.

 

[Jx2]

Get caught in 4k breh

In his shoddy defense, he can always claim that “brain worm” said that and not himself it’s a good play

 

[Frump]

lol

 

[Macallik86]

Here is Pod Save America w/ their in-house pollster, also talking about PA (timestamp):


Cliff notes:

• PA is where Trump was shot and was swamped w/ local coverage of the shooting in a way potentially tougher to overcome
• Performing different than WI & MI (larger, harder to organize)
• Need to crush Philly & the burbs and then weather the rest of the MAGA onslaught

 

[FAH1223]

What he actually said yesterday:

And here are the FIVE most recent polls out of PA.

Notice above the influence column has Rasmussen ranked the worst in the model and so it has a lessened impact on the model too.

Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris

The Electoral College/popular vote gap is increasing in post-DNC data.

www.natesilver.net

I'm sure Kamala's strategists are on it. No need for a circle-jerk, beating up the messenger or burying our heads in the sand.

Fabrizio, InsiderAdvantage, Cygnal, and Rasmussen are all GOP pollsters.

 

[Macallik86]

Fabrizio, InsiderAdvantage, Cygnal, and Rasmussen are all GOP pollsters.

Look at their influence weightings. Their historical bias is why they are given lower influence on the model as a result. Basically, all of those polls combined have a smaller impact on the model than one Emerson Poll.

 

[Frump]

Look at their influence weightings. Their historical bias is why they are given lower influence on the model as a result. Basically, all of those polls combined have a smaller impact on the model than one Emerson Poll.

 

[Reality Check]

Now if only PA can get their act together and pass a law that allows for the counting of absentee ballots to start before election day.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[bnew]

I'm not voting for either.

I also live in a deep blue state, so my vote for president doesn't matter, my state's EC votes are going to Kamala.

Objectively, Kamala >> Trump but she's also mid. Can't go stand in line for 2 hours for some mid

Y'all be safe though

what blue state has a two hour wait line to vote?

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