2022 Midterms: What Have We Learned?

[wire28]

-Polling is still trash post 2016. How many more times are we gonna let these guys shout from the rooftops for months, be wrong, and slink away in the night only to do it again two years later?

-Biden is alright. Despite the talk on here the majority of the public is ok with him.

-Dems can’t take this for granted and need to continue to use this momentum in 2024 and beyond.

-FL and OH are officially Alabama status. Sorry for my brehs out there.

-We need to put a little more money in WI and NC. AZ and NV too.

-MI is a shining beacon in the Midwest as usual

-Trump vs Desantis will be PPV status.

 

[mitter]

-Polling is still trash post 2016. How many more times are we gonna let these guys shout from the rooftops for months, be wrong, and slink away in the night only to do it again two years later?

-Biden is alright. Despite the talk on here the majority of the public is ok with him.

-Dems can’t take this for granted and need to continue to use this momentum in 2024 and beyond.

-FL and OH are officially Alabama status. Sorry for my brehs out there.

-We need to put a little more money in WI and NC. AZ and NV too.

-MI is a shining beacon in the Midwest as usual

-Trump vs Desantis will be PPV status.

How was the polling trash? The overall outcome was well within the range of likely scenarios according to polling.

Can you point to any races where the polling was way off?

One thing which people need to understand: there is a margin of error in polls. News outlets that report point estimates are not doing their jobs properly. They should report confidence intervals.

 

[wire28]

How was the polling trash? The overall outcome was well within the range of likely scenarios according to polling.

Can you point to any races where the polling was way off?

One thing which people need to understand: there is a margin of error in polls. News outlets that report point estimates are not doing their jobs properly. They should report confidence intervals.

the people doing the polling and touting it on social media for clout need to point out the margin of error themselves.

but nobody cares about that. they care about the final proclamation which is safe to say was off, again

the media takes an L as well but i think they low key dont care and just want whatever will bring the most drama/viewers

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

What I’ve learned is @FAH1223 is a shyt poll poster

@mastermind is a bozo

 

[FAH1223]

What I’ve learned is @FAH1223 is a shyt poll poster

@mastermind is a bozo

I was wrong to be freaking out and happy I am wrong.

2010 and 2014 have scarred me. So excuse the freakouts.

It is absolutely clear now that the GOP FLOODED the zone with trash polls to drive a narrative to suppress the vote.

The non-partisan polling has been largely on point. But the Dems in some states were underestimated.

And the House is very interesting. Dems are going to lose the House popular vote but be extremely close to maintaining the majority or coming up a few seats short. This is unthinkable. This may balance a little more when OH and NC redraw their maps cause they can gerrymander more with new GOP majorities on their State Supreme Courts..

 

[wire28]

I was wrong to be freaking out and happy I am wrong.

2010 and 2014 have scarred me. So excuse the freakouts.

It is absolutely clear now that the GOP FLOODED the zone with trash polls to drive a narrative to suppress the vote.

thats all i wanted to hear from you

i'll get off your head now

Spoiler

Spoiler

for now

 

[mitter]

the people doing the polling and touting it on social media for clout need to point out the margin of error themselves.

but nobody cares about that. they care about the final proclamation which is safe to say was off, again

the media takes an L as well but i think they low key dont care and just want whatever will bring the most drama/viewers

It doesn't matter what people "care about"

Polls aren't fukking crystal balls. They provide some information with a certain level of uncertainty. The polls aren't "off" if the results were consistent with the information being provided by the polls. And the results WERE consistent with the polls.

The average person on the street is a retard who doesn't understand what a poll represents. That does not mean that the polls were "off."

 

[Schadenfreude]

Ohio is not a lost cause - you've just got to know where to spend your money because there's a ton of districts that have been Gerrymandered (i.e Jim Jordan's district, that's why he keeps getting reelected).

 

[jj23]

Abortion, rock star Obama and a coherent engagement and mobilisation policy for young voters should be enough to get democrats across the line in 2024 if the economy stays stable.

Keep abortion in the forefront of white women's minds and the will be less likely to fukk you ober in the election.

 

[Conan]

It doesn't matter what people "care about"

Polls aren't fukking crystal balls. They provide some information with a certain level of uncertainty. The polls aren't "off" if the results were consistent with the information being provided by the polls. And the results WERE consistent with the polls.

The average person on the street is a retard who doesn't understand what a poll represents. That does not mean that the polls were "off."

I think Nate Silver (or whoever it was) getting the results in 50 states all correct in 2008 gave people this false perspective of what polls are: a binary yes/no tool (wrong) rather than an understanding of where the probabilities lie (right).

And yes the average person is a retard.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[jj23]

That's actually good news.

 

[AquaCityBoy]

Polling methodology needs to either be completely overhauled or thrown in the bushes entirely.

 

[Sire366]

Lets be real.... (white) Cubans

 

[AquaCityBoy]

Also American voters may not have as much tunnel vision as previously thought.

For two years we heard Democrats were going to face a 'shellacking' due to inflation and gas. Even though those were global issues stemming from the pandemic and Russia invading Ukraine, voters would still punish Democrats because they're in power. They wouldn't want to hear about care about the global economy while these issues are affecting America, and Democrats rallying about democracy and abortion just wouldn't be enough to offset it.

Dems historically overperforming this midterm shows that American voters were not turning a blind eye to the global landscape and/or democracy and abortion rights were enough to keep them competitive.