He noted that Republicans have full authority to redraw 187 congressional districts in the next year, while Democrats have control of just 75. Democrats, additionally, have been more likely to cede control over redistricting to nonpartisan commissions, as is the case in the Democratic strongholds of Virginia, New York and Colorado. In Oregon, meanwhile, Democrats
have struck a deal with Republicans to relinquish exclusive authority to redistrict, which could cost the party a seat in next year’s election, Wasserman added.
“Republicans’ biggest redistricting weapons are Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina — and they could conceivably pick up all five seats they need for the majority from those four alone,”
he wrote. “Meanwhile, Democrats’ most prized states are Illinois and Maryland. The biggest wild cards? New York and Ohio, where lopsided state legislatures could conceivably ignore new reforms and impose deeply partisan gerrymanders.”
New York could be where Democrats decide to abandon a principled stand against gerrymandering and use their supermajorities to overrule the independent redistricting commission to create a map that nets Democrats four more seats.
Redistricting alone could give Republicans control of the House in 2022, experts say