2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

I think Nap and those Jewish posters mad that Stacy abrams isn’t running for senate are being completely disingenuous.

She’s created two platforms one to fight voter suppression around the country and the other to help with the census. If you fail to realize how Important those things are to be able to win races from president to local offices then you’re blind. Nap acts as if their hasn’t been democratic candidates that have been able to raise their profile nationally over the past 3 years. Look at AOC she was a nobody 2 years ago now is one of the most popular politicians in the country.

Those platforms ain’t doing shyt

you motivate voters to vote by running for office.

Abrams is engaging in political entrepreneurship.

AOC got put on by the justice democrats not some ambiguous “voter suppression” group. Might as well tell me she’s baking cookies to help voter turnout out.

at least Eric Holder is doing work with his gerrymandering initiative

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

:ALERTRED:

Gillibrand is finished

 

[Tommy Fits]

Gillibrand dropped out

 

[NY's #1 Draft Pick]

Those platforms ain’t doing shyt

you motivate voters to vote by running for office.

Abrams is engaging in political entrepreneurship.

AOC got put on by the justice democrats not some ambiguous “voter suppression” group. Might as well tell me she’s baking cookies to help voter turnout out.

at least Eric Holder is doing work with his gerrymandering initiative

If you want to win sometimes you have to think outside the box. You know how much gerrymandering hurt us when it Came to winning house seats? I heard we could’ve won a whole lot more. You cool with letting African Americans and other minorities right to vote get suppressed? All that bullshyt Brian kemp pulled in ga . closing poll sites, purging voters etc. what the gop was doing to natives up in North Dakota.

I’m glad you brought up Andrew gillum too. He started a voter registration organization to get a million new voters registered in order to turn Florida blue. That’s another politician pushing for initiatives that would help the party as a whole.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

If you want to win sometimes you have to think outside the box. You know how much gerrymandering hurt us when it Came to winning house seats? I heard we could’ve won a whole lot more. You cool with letting African Americans and other minorities right to vote get suppressed? All that bullshyt Brian kemp pulled in ga . closing poll sites, purging voters etc. what the gop was doing to natives up in North Dakota.

I’m glad you brought up Andrew gillum too. He started a voter registration organization to get a million new voters registered in order to turn Florida blue. That’s another politician pushing for initiatives that would help the party as a whole.

Nothing she’s doing will fix voter suppression outside of actual voting to change policies.

just having an organization with no clear goals aid or measurable markers of success is just white noise to pretend to give the imagine of success

what’s she gonna do? It’s almost been a year. Where’s the court cases? Where’s the proposed laws?

I’ve heard more from her alleged organization than the actual work it’s doing.

Abrams is finished out here.

damn shame.

Some of the most famous politicians lost multiple times. These New Democrats are soft as fukk.

Beto is an even bigger embarrassment

 

[FAH1223]

Yang outlasting his own Senator

 

[Dave24]

Nothing she’s doing will fix voter suppression outside of actual voting to change policies.

just having an organization with no clear goals aid or measurable markers of success is just white noise to pretend to give the imagine of success

what’s she gonna do? It’s almost been a year. Where’s the court cases? Where’s the proposed laws?

I’ve heard more from her alleged organization than the actual work it’s doing.

Abrams is finished out here.

damn shame.

Some of the most famous politicians lost multiple times. These New Democrats are soft as fukk.

Beto is an even bigger embarrassment

How are they soft as fukk? And what famous politicians lost multiple times?

 

[GodinDaFlesh]

Yang outlasting his own Senator

It's because Yang is actually running for something and not just running to beat Trump. Dude is over performing given his lack of name recognition.

 

[storyteller]

The loses can be tracked with voters disdain for saving the American Auto Industry and the desire to repeal the ACA through 2010 elections. That's the same period that tracks with the major losses.


Actually Reagan is the only outlier on the list.
The list also shows the following gains from 2008 bush to 2008 Obama :

• +24 State leg. chambers
• +869 Ste Leg. Seats
• +79 House Seats
• +16 Senate Seats

Basically all the numbers you're criticizing Obama for losing were also his gains.

My bad; I was focused on Dems since we're looking at the blue voting patterns. But even if we include the Republicans, your handwashing of 1000 lost seats being common isn't supported by the data. The loss is only really comparable to Eisenhower and Nixon/Ford (and we know exactly why that one tanked). Look at the net losses as a ratio to the totals, all presidents lose some after they get in but the scope is much larger for those 3 compared to the other 5 with one of those 3 involving a resignation and pardon.

So to wrap this up for you:

Obama's handling of the ACA and the Auto Bailout cost him in his first midterms. But we can also see that voters overwhelmingly gave him control of government to implement it. We've seen a similar situation under Trump. Therefore, if Bernie or Warren don't capture the Senate and Maintain the house (especially with this Senate Election map) it's not a stretch to believe it's an indictment on their major policy propositions.

Yes, voters overwhelmingly gave him control of government to implement bold changes. Part of that would have included a public option. When that became dead on arrival, Medicaid expansion became optional (this one's not on him) and the roll out was botched; the reaction was disillusionment. We can see that in the volume of voters who continued to stay home from then on out. People expected bigger changes and that's what the initial explosion of votes reflects. However; there are variables that are concerning which could reduce the impact this time around. Most obviously would be the gutting of the Voting Rights Act, we've already seen voter suppression result in losses for Dems who likely would have won. On top of that, I'm a bit worried that enthusiasm from 2018 could take a hit with the lack of meaningful action from the House Leadership. Not mention Obama was absolutely a special orator. He's a great speaker and kills it campaigning in ways that go beyond policy.

All that said, lemme relink the Bitcofer interview for you because I'm not getting this from no where and it was obvious you didn't read it when you mentioned moderates winning the most seats before. This woman got 2018 seats flipping almost dead on well in advance of anyone else being close. Her model is more confident than I am and one of her main conclusions from the model is that progressive platforms outperformed centrist ones when you factor in certain variables that traditional models miss (and again, her model bodied all of the traditional models).

She predicted the "blue wave" perfectly. So what about 2020?

 

[SubZeroDegrees]

I think Nap and those Jewish posters mad that Stacy abrams isn’t running for senate are being completely disingenuous.

She’s created two platforms one to fight voter suppression around the country and the other to help with the census. If you fail to realize how Important those things are to be able to win races from president to local offices then you’re blind. Nap acts as if their hasn’t been democratic candidates that have been able to raise their profile nationally over the past 3 years. Look at AOC she was a nobody 2 years ago now is one of the most popular politicians in the country.

If you want to win sometimes you have to think outside the box. You know how much gerrymandering hurt us when it Came to winning house seats? I heard we could’ve won a whole lot more. You cool with letting African Americans and other minorities right to vote get suppressed? All that bullshyt Brian kemp pulled in ga . closing poll sites, purging voters etc. what the gop was doing to natives up in North Dakota.

I’m glad you brought up Andrew gillum too. He started a voter registration organization to get a million new voters registered in order to turn Florida blue. That’s another politician pushing for initiatives that would help the party as a whole.

You know the Georgia rethugs would pull the same shyt in a Senate statewide election. Stacey doing the right thing, end gerrymandering and voter suppression. Allow poorer people to vote and make your move in the election. She making chess moves.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[storyteller]

You know the Georgia rethugs would pull the same shyt in a Senate statewide election. Stacey doing the right thing, end gerrymandering and voter suppression. Allow poorer people to vote and make your move in the election. She making chess moves.

I really don’t think they could pull that off a second time with her. I really love what she’s doing but part of me feels like there’s gotta be other people that could run that operation. In my eyes she’d be a shoe-in to win and every seat counts.

 

[SubZeroDegrees]

I really don’t think they could pull that off a second time with her. I really love what she’s doing but part of me feels like there’s gotta be other people that could run that operation. In my eyes she’d be a shoe-in to win and every seat counts.

I don't trust them cause she's a threat. They would do anything to beat her.

 

[Pressure]

All that said, lemme relink the Bitcofer interview for you because I'm not getting this from no where and it was obvious you didn't read it when you mentioned moderates winning the most seats before. This woman got 2018 seats flipping almost dead on well in advance of anyone else being close. Her model is more confident than I am and one of her main conclusions from the model is that progressive platforms outperformed centrist ones when you factor in certain variables that traditional models miss (and again, her model bodied all of the traditional models).

She predicted the "blue wave" perfectly. So what about 2020?

Her model goes against your argument. You've asserted that it's postirve supportive voting behavior that elicits the blue wave.

Whereas her model is in agreement with the establishment model you oppose. That being voting against something, in the case of her arguments against Obama, against Clinton, and against Trump matters more.

These are her own words

What fueled these sharp increases is something called negative partisanship, which I explain in great detail in my original post. In the polarized era, Republicans and Democrats increasingly view each other as existential threats to the survival of the Republic, especially those that the PEW Center calls the “highly engaged.” As such, fear and hatred of the “other party” motivates voters more than appreciation of one’s own party. I argue that this has had a profound effect on voting behavior. During the Obama years, Republicans felt threatened by the Democratic Party’s control of the presidency and responded by increasing their turnout rates in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. The result was two banner cycles for the party where they not only picked up control of Congress but also gained about 1,000 additional state legislative seats and a dozen new state houses, even in blue states. Republican gains were helped by sluggish turnout by Democrats, who, having completed their “Yes, We Can” revolution, scaled back their electoral interest considerably in the midterms. Now the shoe is on the other foot, and Democrats are threatened. This threat response provides a useful framework to anticipate what will happen in the 2018 midterms and beyond.

Come on man. You know how I shine. :Bucketsumad:

 

[Pressure]

If you're going to come at me with arguments with primary source documents, I hope your primary source agrees with you. Don't post an article about it without actually reading it.