2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[No1]

Monmouth are the GOAT pollsters too. A+ rating from 538.

When I look at that again it is interesting because it shows Sanders and Warren directly taking from Biden. His decline is directly tied to them.

 

[intra vires]

 

[dtownreppin214]

The only joy I take from this Ol boy spending like 100 million of his own money and no one gives a fukk.

I think he needs one more poll to qualify for the next debate. Of course he wants the rules change in his favor and I wouldn't be surprised if he's dangling his money to make it happen.

When I look at that again it is interesting because it shows Sanders and Warren directly taking from Biden. His decline is directly tied to them.

Biden is starting to lose black support. I'm surprised it's happening this early.

 

[No1]

I think he needs one more poll to qualify for the next debate. Of course he wants the rules change in his favor and I wouldn't be surprised if he's dangling his money to make it happen.


Biden is starting to lose black support. I'm surprised it's happening this early.

Voters of color is such a ridiculous all-encompassing term though. Sanders is ahead of Biden because he is second to him in black voters and is way ahead of everyone with the Latino vote.

 

[the next guy]

This is a qualifying poll for the debate

Bernie! I’m surprised he’s on top right now.

I think he needs one more poll to qualify for the next debate. Of course he wants the rules change in his favor and I wouldn't be surprised if he's dangling his money to make it happen.


Biden is starting to lose black support. I'm surprised it's happening this early.

Biden is going to cause a lot of problems in black families this fall.

 

[NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong]

Supposedly no more qualifying polls will be released by the 28th which is the deadline so its looking like the debate will be one night with all 10 candidates

 

[88m3]

When I look at that again it is interesting because it shows Sanders and Warren directly taking from Biden. His decline is directly tied to them.

fickle nature of American voters?

It's important to remember that Bernie was in the lead till Biden entered the race and now Bernie can barely keep ahead of Warren which is terrible

 

[storyteller]

3-Way Lead as Dem 2020 Picture Shifts | Monmouth University Polling Institute

The poll finds a virtual three-way tie among Sanders (20%), Warren (20%), and Biden (19%) in the presidential nomination preferences of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters across the country. Compared to Monmouth’s June poll, these results represent an increase in support for both Sanders (up from 14%) and Warren (up from 15%), and a significant drop for Biden (down from 32%).

Results for the rest of the field are fairly stable compared to two months ago. These candidates include California Sen. Kamala Harris at 8% support (identical to 8% in June), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 4% (2% in June), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4% (5% in June), entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 3% (2% in June), former cabinet secretary Julián Castro at 2% (<1% in June), former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 2% (3% in June), and author Marianne Williamson at 2% (1% in June). Support for the remaining 13 candidates included in the preference poll registered only 1% or less.

Biden has suffered an across the board decline in his support since June. He lost ground with white Democrats (from 32% to 18%) and voters of color (from 33% to 19%), among voters without a college degree (from 35% to 18%) and college graduates (from 28% to 20%), with both men (from 38% to 24%) and women (from 29% to 16%), and among voters under 50 years old (from 21% to 6%) as well as voters aged 50 and over (from 42% to 33%). Most of Biden’s lost support in these groups shifted almost equally toward Sanders and Warren.

“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile. Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden. But they are swinging more toward one of the left-leaning contenders with high name recognition rather than toward a lesser known candidate who might be more in line with them politically,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. He added, “It’s important to keep in mind this is just one snapshot from one poll. But it does raise warning signs of increased churning in the Democratic nomination contest now that voters are starting to pay closer attention.”

Biden lost support over the past two months among Democrats who call themselves moderate or conservative (from 40% to 22%) with the shift among these voters accruing to both Sanders (from 10% to 20%) and Warren (from 6% to 16%). Biden also lost support among liberals (from 24% to 15%), but this group’s backing has scattered to a variety of other candidates. Sanders has picked up a few points among liberal voters (from 17% to 21%) while Warren has held fairly steady (from 25% to 24%). Also, Harris has not budged with this group (from 10% to 11%) and Buttigieg has slipped slightly (from 8% to 5%). However, the aggregate support for four other candidates – namely Booker, Castro, Williamson and Yang – has gone up a total of 8 points among liberal Democrats (from 8% to 16% for the four combined).

The Monmouth poll also finds that Biden has lost his small edge in the early states where Democrats will cast ballots from February through Super Tuesday. His even larger lead in the later states has vanished as well. Biden (20%), Warren (20%), Sanders (16%), and Harris (12%) are all in the top tier among voters in the early states. Biden has slipped by 6 points since June and Warren has gained 5 points over the same time span. Early state support for Sanders and Harris has not changed much. In the later states, Biden’s support has plummeted from 38% in June to 17% now, while both Warren (from 16% to 20%) and Sanders (from 13% to 23%) have made gains.

Yall know Bernie's my top choice but I think the early state lead for Warren is bigger takeaway right now and personally, I'll be good with either of them coming away the winner. It's not quite 1a and 1b for me but close enough.

 

[No1]

3-Way Lead as Dem 2020 Picture Shifts | Monmouth University Polling Institute



Yall know Bernie's my top choice but I think the early state lead for Warren is bigger takeaway right now and personally, I'll be good with either of them coming away the winner. It's not quite 1a and 1b for me but close enough.

Warren definitely has early state momentum because her base is very white and educated and that benefits her heavily in those early states. But it is also another reason why people were so upset about her not running in 2016.

 

[Frank Lotion]

Finally. Get Joe the fukk up outta here

 

[the next guy]

 

[the next guy]

 

[No1]

fickle nature of American voters?

It's important to remember that Bernie was in the lead till Biden entered the race and now Bernie can barely keep ahead of Warren which is terrible

You’re trolling. Bernie was never ahead of Biden. That same poll shows Biden was ahead even before he declared. What happened was that Bernie lost some of his share as other candidates had bumps and he’s returning to his original share of the voters. Warren, on the other hand has had an astronomic rise. There is a clear top 3 right now.

 

[GodinDaFlesh]

3-Way Lead as Dem 2020 Picture Shifts | Monmouth University Polling Institute


Yall know Bernie's my top choice but I think the early state lead for Warren is bigger takeaway right now and personally, I'll be good with either of them coming away the winner. It's not quite 1a and 1b for me but close enough.

Just as I predicted, Biden's numbers are slowly going to drop as we get closer to the primaries. Dude is only running on name recognition from being Obama's VP. The Democratic party has moved farther to his left and it doesn't help that it seems he's lost a lot of his marbles.

 

[the next guy]

You’re trolling. Bernie was never ahead of Biden. That same poll shows Biden was ahead even before he declared. What happened was that Bernie lost some of his share as other candidates had bumps and he’s returning to his original share of the voters. Warren, on the other hand has had an astronomic rise. There is a clear top 3 right now.

Well Biden wasn't running so Bernie was the front runner in reality. Biden was votes being parked imo. But the Bernie-Biden shift is real offline. We'll see, but he was always going to get it if not Biden imo.