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Bernie Sanders’s Loyal Voters Could Keep Him in Race for Months
Eliza Collins | Photographs by Natalie Keyssar for The Wall Street Journal
7-9 minutes
Bernie Sanders’s most adamant backers expect that he will be the Democratic nominee for president, but if it ends up looking like someone else may take that title, they want Mr. Sanders to put up a fight.
Mr. Sanders’s campaign has made it clear that to win the nomination, he would have to pull off an ambitious expansion of the electorate. His campaign says it is banking on turning out a coalition of
young, working-class and minority voters.
But polls show the Vermont independent’s base is more loyal than that of any other 2020 Democrat, and in interviews over the last four months, Mr. Sanders’s supporters told The Wall Street Journal that they wouldn’t support any other candidate as long as he is running. Those backers—and his massive fundraising—mean that, unlike many of his rivals, Mr. Sanders might not need a marquee win in an early state to stay in the presidential race for months.
Some of Mr. Sanders’s supporters say he should keep running until July, even if that means Democrats will face a contested convention in Milwaukee.
“I just think that Bernie really is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate and that 2020 is too important to risk,” said Cory Ray, 25, a labor organizer from Bloomington, Ind.
According to a
Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from October, Mr. Sanders’s supporters are the most sure that they will vote for their favored candidate. Some 57% of his backers say they will definitely stick with him. By comparison, half of former Vice President Joe Biden’s supporters and one-third of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s supporters say they will stick with their current top choice.
Both Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren had more support nationwide from Democratic primary voters than Mr. Sanders in the October poll. Polling averages from early-voting states currently don’t show the Vermont senator leading, according to
RealClearPolitics data.
Still, Mr. Sanders could collect delegates out of primaries and caucuses even if he doesn’t win them outright. That is because to qualify for delegates, a candidate needs to cross a 15% threshold at the congressional and/or statewide level. Mr. Sanders hits or exceeds that in the majority of early state polls.
Add to that his fundraising prowess—Mr. Sanders had
nearly $34 million on hand at the end of September, more than any other candidate—and a slight uptick in polling after his heart attack this fall, and all signs indicate that the lawmaker will be in the race for some time.
Mr. Sanders’s campaign says his ability to consistently pick up delegates in each state will allow him to win the nomination.
“We anticipate accumulating enough delegates to win on the first round of the convention,” said Jeff Weaver, a top adviser to Mr. Sanders who ran his campaign in 2016. “Through the generosity of our grass-roots donors, we will have the resources to compete in every state and make the threshold in every state.”
If Mr. Sanders doesn’t earn enough delegates to win the nomination, he could keep anyone else from crossing the threshold. If no candidate is able to get a majority of eligible delegates, the Democratic convention could go to subsequent ballots. Superdelegates—party leaders who aren’t pledged to support a particular candidate—can vote in later rounds.
“If he can consistently hit 15% on ‘Super Tuesday,’ then that raises the odds of a contested convention considerably,” said David Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Super Tuesday” takes place March 3, when 14 states will hold nominating contests.
Bernie Sanders has said he would vote for the Democratic nominee in a general election if it isn’t him.
Contested conventions are rare—the last time the Democratic convention went past the first ballot was in 1952. But experts say a deadlocked convention is more likely after changes made by the Democratic Party. At the urging of Mr. Sanders and his supporters, the party said it would prevent superdelegates from voting in the first round at the convention in 2020 if their votes would sway the result.
The overhaul came after Mr. Sanders’s 2016 race against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She won enough support, including from superdelegates, to secure the nomination in June 2016. In July,
Mr. Sanders endorsed her shortly before the convention.
Most of Mr. Sanders’s core supporters point out that many of the policies he championed in 2016, such as Medicare for All, have been adopted in some variation by other candidates running in 2020.
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“He’s the only legitimate person, all the others are full of s---,” said Milton J. Espinoza, 72, a pharmacist from Queens, N.Y.
If Mr. Sanders isn’t the nominee, “I will go out in the streets, and I will protest, I will quit my job. And I will say something until he’s the nominee,” said Tracey Taeger, 30, a grocery-store employee from Clinton Township, Mich.
“There’s no future because the planet is going to, you know,
become really uninhabitable,” she said, referring to Mr. Sanders’s $16.3 trillion
plan to combat climate change.
Despite their openness to a fight in Milwaukee, none of the voters the Journal spoke to at campaign events around the country was willing to vote for President Trump in a general election if Mr. Sanders wasn’t the nominee. A handful, including Mr. Espinoza and Ms. Taeger, said they might stay home or vote for a third-party candidate, but most said they would back the Democrats’ pick.
Mr. Sanders has said he would vote for the Democratic nominee in a general election if it isn’t him.
Alexis Huscko, a 26-year-old stay-at-home parent from Muscatine, Iowa, has been to several rallies with her family. She said her 2-year-old daughter sometimes breaks into a frequent rally chant: “Hey, hey, ho, ho corporate greed has got to go.”
Ms. Huscko said she voted for Green Party candidate Jill Stein in 2016 after Mr. Sanders lost the nomination. But she said she wouldn’t vote for a third-party candidate again.
“We absolutely have to get Donald Trump out of there,” Ms. Huscko said.
—Aaron Zitner, Ken Thomas, Julie Bykowicz and John McCormick contributed to this article.
Write to Eliza Collins at
eliza.collins@wsj.com.
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