2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

Wild self

Wild self

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tru_m.a.c said:
Poor comparison not based on actual numbers.

Dems have been able to capture more than 50% of the vote statewide multiple times, multiple offices over the past decade. Only Sherrod Brown can win a statewide race in Ohio.


He doesn't need his base to grow. He needs to win WI, PA, and Michigan. He can literally lose every republican in NY and California and it wouldn't change the election.
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Its voter turnout. A lot of people who sat out in 2016 are pissed and will come in a record turnout in 2020. MI, WI, MN, and PA all voted out their GOP people in 2018 Midterms. And he is losing massive ground in the Midwest in a record pace. Voter turnout is everything, not to mention the Electoral College being turned down in more states.
 
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Wild self said:
Its voter turnout. A lot of people who sat out in 2016 are pissed and will come in a record turnout in 2020. MI, WI, MN, and PA all voted out their GOP people in 2018 Midterms. And he is losing massive ground in the Midwest in a record pace. Voter turnout is everything, not to mention the Electoral College being turned down in more states.
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I'm in agreement that it's all about turnout. We can get into how Dems depress voter turnout later.

You were asking about Trump expanding his base. It just drives me crazy because when people usually say this they're thinking that national popularity % or vote total = the president getting elected. We need to stress that the only states that matter for the presidential election are WI, MI, PA, and NC. Everything else is just noise.

Right now the better question is if the Dems had a presidential election today, would they be able to close that 77,000 gap in WI, PA, and MI, and the 160,000 gap in NC.
 
Wild self

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tru_m.a.c said:
I'm in agreement that it's all about turnout. We can get into how Dems depress voter turnout later.

You were asking about Trump expanding his base. It just drives me crazy because when people usually say this they're thinking that national popularity % or vote total = the president getting elected. We need to stress that the only states that matter for the presidential election are WI, MI, PA, and NC. Everything else is just noise.

Right now the better question is if the Dems had a presidential election today, would they be able to close that 77,000 gap in WI, PA, and MI, and the 160,000 gap in NC.
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I believe that the Midwest is a lock for Dems if they have a ton of rallies there focusing on the economy. Plus those states with Dem governors are gonna make sure voter suppression isnt gonna happen.

NC is another animal, though
 
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Wild self said:
I believe that the Midwest is a lock for Dems if they have a ton of rallies there focusing on the economy. Plus those states with Dem governors are gonna make sure voter suppression isnt gonna happen.

NC is another animal, though
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Democrat Roy Cooper beat Republican incumbent Pat McCrory in 2016 when Hillary lost to Trump. More democrats voted for Roy Cooper than Hillary. In the midterms the Dems broke the 50% threshold, but because of gerrymandering didn't win a majority in the senate.

Those two things alone should tell you everything you need to know about how trash the DNC's gameplan was.

I feel like we're waiting for Superman.

Edit: I truly do not feel the midwest is a lock like I did leading up to midterms because of the lack of innovation and fire I'm seeing at the state level.
 
intra vires

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:jbhmm:It kind of sounds like he's withholding tax returns to generate more news coverage for himself.
Maybe I'm being too cynical but it's almost like he's a politician or something.:patrice:


As my girl always says, "word choice matters".

I like how he says "you know what I missed?" instead of your typical political speak (e.g. I evolved, we often forget, etc.). It's an acknowledgment of fault regarding his messaging, which sometimes comes off as class reductionist. It seems he's taking his [legitimate] criticisms to heart. Good on him and his team.
 
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intra vires said:

:jbhmm:It kind of sounds like he's withholding tax returns to generate more news coverage for himself.
Maybe I'm being too cynical but it's almost like he's a politician or something.:patrice:


As my girl always says, "word choice matters".

I like how he says "you know what I missed?" instead of your typical political speak (e.g. I evolved, we often forget, etc.). It's an acknowledgment of fault regarding his messaging, which sometimes comes off as class reductionist. It seems he's taking his [legitimate] criticisms to heart. Good on him and his team.
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:sas2:
 
FAH1223

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∆y = f(∆x) said:





@wire28 @Return to Forever @ezrathegreat @Jello Biafra @humble forever @Darth Nubian @Dameon Farrow @General Bravo III @BigMoneyGrip @VR Tripper @Iceson Beckford [ @BaileyPark31 @Lucky_Lefty @johnedwarduado @Armchair Militant @panopticon @88m3
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In an interview Friday, Sanders campaign manager Faiz Shakir echoed that optimism.

“If you’re talking to anyone at the Democratic National Committee who’s there now, I’m sure they will tell you that their relationship with the Bernie Sanders campaign is great and that we are operating in good faith and we are talking to each other on an almost daily basis,” he said. “Anyone suggesting that there’s any kind of friction there is living in the past. They are living with some grudges that they are holding onto from a bygone time.”

 
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