Why is it you believe the left has a problem with flat/regressive taxes? I was under the impression that it's because they unfairly hit lower-income people more than higher-income people due to the diminishing marginal value of money as it increases. So, someone making $40K being taxed at 15% would feel that much more than someone making $100K being taxed at 15%, making a flat tax, in effect, regressive. But that's obviously not the case with a flat corporate head tax, because the average income level of a corporation's employees is not the same as the income of the corporation itself. You can have very rich companies that disproportionately employ low-income employees, like Walmart and Amazon and Disney. These are the companies you're defending with claims that a flat employer-side head tax is unfairly regressive, and why we're seeing alleged leftists deploying the exact same trickle-down, right-wing economics of pro-corporate forces. I mean, your argument is literally premised on the loaded assumption that taxing employers is the same as taxing employees. What are we doing here?! Seattle leftists, like Kshama Sawant, battling Amazon have been pushing for a head tax and the pro-Amazon forces were using these same "flat tax is regressive!" arguments. I'm sorry, but the 2020 Democratic Primary battle between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders doesn't negate basic facts about economic politics.
A) The payroll tax concept works because it isn't gonna have to be so high, it's replacing private insurance costs and it can function in perpetuity without breaking down.
B) The problems with the head tax don't narrow only to the fact that regardless of your income, the costs are distributed entirely evenly. That is indeed a key bit, but you have to add the second key variable to get into the feedback loop that's so problematic. That's the Independent Contractor workaround. This might not immediately be a big problem, but every employer that sees value in switching or outsourcing to avoid the limits brings down the revenue that is needed to keep the program running. That means you have to increase the cost of the tax to keep up the revenue which incentivizes more employers to outsource..and back and forth...that's at the crux of the "unsustainable" part and why the tax sounds good early but requires a real transition plan to avoid it becoming regressive. To continually talk past that problem and imply that it's a right wing talking point is just oversimplifying the issue. Here's another example where the incentives align better.
Warren's wealth tax gets hit with examples of capital flight from other countries. This is undeniably true, but also oversimplified. That's because Warren adds in an exit tax, boosts IRS funding to have more effective auditing practices and plans to avoid loopholes and exemptions that helped tax avoidance in prior models. We see the pitfalls, but we see a number policy specific ideas to address the pitfalls. That's not there for the head tax and that's why the "how do we transition out of the head tax" question is such a focal point.
C) Comparing the two head taxes is a reach. We're talking about thousands of dollars in additional expense per employee vs hundreds and if I'm not mistaken, that Seattle Head tax actually did include a transition to a payroll tax but it went through a bunch of iterations so I don't remember exactly what they closed on.
I've advocated having M4A as your starting policy, I've never advocated for actually calling for a vote or introduction on week 1. But let's actually game this out. Bernie introduces his bill. No vote has been taken yet, but we've opened up space for public statements and tallying up who stands where on M4A. It immediately faces massive, overwhelming disapproval from Congress. I'm not sure who is whipping votes when Chuck Schumer and dikk Durbin are both publicly against this bill, but whatever. At this point, Bernie has to start making massive concessions, essentially gutting the core of what makes it full M4A. What incentive is there for the anti-M4A forces and squishes to give something up when M4A has just been proven to be very congressionally unpopular? What threat does Bernie have? This is my concern with this approach. It's walking loudly and carrying a small stick. You're believing your own bluff.
So let's start at a key aspect of any scenario where Bernie wins and that's the unavoidable implication that it'd mean the American people voted on a candidate whose number one focal point was M4A. That immediately puts pressure on other Democrats to at least move left from complete no-M4A positions. We can see the gradual impact Trump's win has had in further eroding the behavior of already garbage Republicans as an example. One minute you're PoS Lindsey Graham and the next you're PoS Trump worshipping Graham.
We also don't know what impact that could have Congressional leadership. I've mentioned before that the make-up of Congress will have a large impact on what we can consider realistic and not realistic. A continued blue wave could make passing measures a lot easier and having Leadership push back against a president elected by their own party constituents is a stretch. Leadership could very well change, especially if the American people give a Bernie Sanders a resounding victory in the face of leadership's opposition to his trademark proposals. This could happen with Warren too but she's been more open to compromise and her concession to a Public Option makes it unlikely that she'd rock the boat.
Lastly is the interim election. That's the big place to put pressure on Congressional members to support the bill. My favorite example of primary pressure on a candidate is Hakeem Jeffries. There were stories that Pelosi was really upset on occasions where Jeffries moved more toward Progressive stances (aka sided with the Squad and caused one of Nancy's attacks on them)...but those also followed with rumors that Justice Democrats had marked him for a primary. Bernie's approach of starting this fight out the gate means that if the Dems are dragging their feet, the interim election could see them facing progressive primary challengers that force their hands. This might also extend to Dems challenging Republicans.
These are obviously moving parts and impossible to put a clear conclusion on. But assuming the worst and conceding ahead of time is simply bad strategy. If Bernie is forced to fall back to a Public Option and Medicare expansion but with limits, you've acknowledged that he'll likely do that. But the key here is that he's not folding beforehand when so many variables aren't even decided.
You and I both want M4A, but it seems we disagree on how popular it currently is. I think pulling everyone's cards at this moment could undermine the negotiating position because M4A is a lot more popular in theory than it is in practice. That's where it should be kept for the time being. You lose your ace in the hole if actually test it.
Popular with who? We've seen polling tricks to make it sound worse than it is, but once constituents know that they can keep their physicians, they're good with it. The unpopularity is more out of representatives than constituents. We've seen similar scenarios play out before, specifically impeachment. A lot of Dems slowly came around after time off where they had to face angry constituents. Not only that but if you really want to undermine a negotiating position, spend your first two years establishing one healthcare reform and then immediately press a new healthcare reform to follow up. Even worse, let all of your opponents know the plan so that even if they have to concede the first reform, they can spend years poisoning the well on the second fight.
The M4A transition plan is an area of legitimate disagreement. I have no problem with you or Dixon thinking Bernie's approach is better. I'm not even totally convinced myself. But I disagree with Dixon that it's a 3 year transition to M4A. It's 3 years of expanding M4A coverage to millions more people, and then finishing off the rest in year 3. She's doing the same thing Bernie is doing in the first few steps of his M4A plan, but she's not waiting until the bill is passed to do so, like he's advocating. Which is what Ady Barkan has been saying. That's the trade-off. You can do the first steps of the M4A transition immediately, but you would have to take out the poison pill of the final step. Or you can keep the structural integrity of full M4A, but you have to impossibly get it passed through congress.
Everything you've just said applies to Bernie's plan except he's not spending the first two years with a focus on middleman legislation. Bernie has the same tools at his disposal, the same year one goal for expansion (age 50) and the same executive privilege to lower drug prices. Through the course of fighting for the rest, he could also fix parts of the ACA that Trump has tarnished as a stopgap. The only addition to this debate is that actual M4A legislation will not be on the table for discussion at all until year three. Before that, you've set up an unnecessary benchmark as a goal instead of something you can fall back on as a compromise tactic. You've set up a focal point on the Public Option instead of on the broader goal and by doing so, you've added a step to M4A that only
might be necessary. And we can address that need when we understand it to be a need.
And here's where the trust issue comes in. My concern is that everything Warren is talking about would be delayed heavily by obstruction and virtually no different from what a Public Option would face is that was set up to be the goal. Everyone knows that a reform is going to be what constituents want. Republicans and Dems who are beholden to lobbyists won't be so much focused on deading the legislation as extracting as many concessions as they can from it. With Warren already conceding to a middle ground, my concern is that other priorities will render this fight of less importance once she gets to her first benchmark. Then she can preach the waiting game, "just wait and the American people will come around..." My concern being that the people coming around will take a lot longer than expected and face a ton of a propaganda that got a two year head start.
And regardless I'm glad we've gone from a belief that Warren filled in crucial gaps to the idea that Warren is using a different strategy. Her funding mechanism vs Bernie's funding mechanism and Her transition vs Bernie's Transition are actual debatable parts but it was never about gaps in Bernie's plan. It's about strategic differences which lies at the crux of damn near ever critique yall get mad about until we drill down into the theory underlying the claims being made. The Native American crap is disingenuous. Distrust of Warren on corporate levels or as a shill are totally off base imo. But calling out
potential pitfalls or places where her vision does not suffice strategically is worth actually drilling down instead of dismissal and attack.