Internal Free Agent Decisions
Perhaps more so than in any other offseason in recent memory, the decisions relating to Houston’s own free agents will have far and away the largest impact on the Rockets’ offseason.
Chris Paul: When Paul chose to exercise his $24.6 million player option last summer in order to facilitate his move to the Rockets, he turned down the chance to make as much as four years, $149 million as a free agent (or possibly as much as five years, $201 million with the Clippers). There were likely several teams out there willing to give Paul such a contract. The Rockets and Paul may have had an “understanding” that he would be made whole the following summer. The question is, what would that mean? Is Houston going to offer Paul a max contract that would pay him $158 million over four years (or $205 million over five years)? Was the enticement of championship contention – not to mention no state income taxes – enough to get Paul to lower his long-term asking price? Another complicating factor here is that Paul is still the President of the National Basketball Players Association, so he may not want to set a “bad example” by give the Rockets any sort of discount. This one is going to be very interesting and could impact other moves the Rockets make over the next several years.
Clint Capela: Few players did more to improve their free agent stock than Capela this past season. At the start of the season, he was a promising young big who
might get a decent contract but would probably be a victim of an over-saturated free agent center market. But now, after a great regular season and an even better playoff run, Capela might just be the top free agent center on the market. As a restricted free agent, the Rockets will have the right to match any offer for Capela. Capela could command an offer sheet as large as four years, over $108 million. While that is a rather steep price to pay, Capela is an ideal center for the Rockets’ system on both ends, and there is no way to replace him with a comparable player if they do not match. While few teams will have the cap room available to offer Capela a huge deal, two teams to watch out for are the
Phoenix Suns and the
Dallas Mavericks. Here’s hoping the Suns and Mavs each select centers in the top 5 picks of the upcoming draft (which features several terrific center prospects like
DeAndre Ayton and
Mo Bamba), making it less prudent for them to sign yet another young center to a max (or near-max) long-term deal. Another option is for the Rockets and Capela to work out a long-term deal before July 1, thereby avoiding the risks of restricted free agency for both parties.
Trevor Ariza: Ariza is the glue that has held the Houston Rockets together for the past four seasons. He has been the quintessential “3-and-D” guy, typically guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player or mobile big. Every NBA team needs a player like Ariza. The Rockets will be tested this summer on the value they place on a soon-to-be 33-year-old small forward whose defensive skills have been slowly diminishing. Ariza also happens to be very close friends with both Harden and Paul, so there are relationship issues in play here as well. Ariza’s value on the open market is uncertain. Given his age and the scarcity of teams with the cap room to spend on role players (even really good ones), it is not clear whether Ariza could command much more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE elsewhere, though he might be able to get more (annually) on a shorter-term deal. Plus, as with Capela, the Rockets’ inability to adequately replace Ariza if he leaves may force the Rockets to overpay him.
Luc Mbah a Moute: Mbah a Moute was an absolute steal in free agency last summer for Houston, who landed him for the veteran’s minimum salary. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they only have Non-Bird rights to him, meaning that the most they can offer Luc (without using cap room or another salary cap exception) is 120% of the veteran’s minimum salary for next season. The estimated veteran’s minimum salary next season for a player with ten or more seasons of experience is about $2.37 million, so 120% of that would be about $2.85 million. But given his performance this past season (ill-timed shoulder injury aside), Luc might command well in excess of that in free agency. The Rockets might need to throw most or all of the Taxpayer MLE at Luc in order to keep him. Houston will be hoping to convince Mbah a Moute to take less to remain a valuable piece of a contender.
Gerald Green: Green was one of the feel-good stories of the entire 2017-18 NBA season. Mere days away from retiring after “sitting on a couch” for several weeks (I’m guessing he did other stuff, but they only seem to report about his couch-related activities), Green went quickly from emergency wing depth to rotation player and eventually to invaluable seventh man in the Western Conference Finals. A proud Houston native (as evidenced by his pre-game attire and his fantastic hairdos), Green was one of the fan favorites this season. As with Mbah a Moute, the Rockets only have Non-Bird rights to Green. However, given his issues with defensive consistency (something that has plagued him his entire career), it is unlikely that Green will have the same market that Mbah a Moute will in free agency. While the Rockets will likely try to bring Green back, they may balk at offering more than the veteran’s minimum. (On the subject of offering veteran’s minimum deals, Houston will be hesitant to offer two-year deals, since the league will pick up the amount above the two-year vet minimum salary – estimated at $1.5 million – on one-year deals only. That difference paid by the league is also excluded for salary cap and luxury tax purposes, so the relative value of a one-year deal is greatly magnified when facing an enormous tax bill.)
Joe Johnson: Johnson was added late in the regular season after being bought out of the last year of his prior contract. Expected to provide valuable bench scoring, Johnson was rather disappointing in his stint with the Rockets. “Iso Joe” was simply too slow to effectively run the switch-everything defense that propelled Houston to the Western Conference Finals. Just like with both Mbah a Moute and Green, the Rockets only have Non-Bird rights for Johnson. If he is brought back at all, it is unlikely he will be offered more than a one-year veteran’s minimum deal.
Tarik Black: Black had a disappointing season in Houston. There were flashes of the defensive fundamentals that had allowed him to stick in the NBA, but Black was far too foul-prone whenever he got extended minutes. Between his overall performance and Houston’s glut of backup centers on the roster, it is unlikely Black will be on the Rockets next season. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Rockets will not re-sign him. While Houston only has Non-Bird rights to Black, his decent-sized prior salary make him an intriguing sign-and-trade candidate if the Rockets need salary filler in trades. Black could be re-signed to a three-year deal (only the first year of which must be guaranteed) starting as high as $3.95 million. That could be the difference in accomplishing a major blockbuster trade.
Markel Brown: As noted above, it is unlikely that Brown will return on an NBA contract. He remains a possibility to return on a two-way contract, although it seems more likely that the Rockets will explore other options for that two-way roster spot.
Sergio Llull: You
had to know I’d drop a Llull reference at some point during this thing, didn’t you?! While not technically a free agent (since the Rockets hold his exclusive NBA rights), Llull – a 6-3 combo guard and the 2017 EuroLeague MVP – remains an intriguing internal option in the Rockets’ long-term roster building plans. Llull’s team (Real Madrid) just won yet another EuroLeague title recently, and he has nothing left to prove playing in the world’s second best basketball league. While it is highly doubtful Llull finally comes over to Houston this summer (there are neither the dollars nor playing time available on this particular roster to entice him to leave his personal paradise in Madrid, plus he’s fresh off an ACL tear that cost him nearly the entire 2017-18 season), he remains an option in 2019 or, more likely, 2020. In the alternative, Llull’s draft rights probably still have trade value – perhaps being worth about a high second rounder – and may need to be surrendered in one of the Rockets’ bigger moves this summer.
#Pursuit of Outside “Free Agents”
In his end-of-season press conference the other day,
Morey noted, “
We’re going to have the pick of the free agents out there, whether they be the high-end ones or whether they be the Luc Mbah a Moutes and Gerald Greens of this year.” When pressed to explain how adding a high-end free agent would be possible in light of his declaration that the Rockets hoped to bring back all their own key free agents, Morey played coy and jokingly referenced “new math” that would make it happen.
Well, let’s take a look at that new math.
With little (and most likely no) salary cap room available, and with any sign-and-trade of a free agent to Houston imposing a hard cap that would make it difficult to keep the team’s core together, it seems that the most plausible way of adding a high-end “free agent” is for the Rockets to acquire that player via trade before he ever even becomes a free agent.
The Rockets and Chris Paul shocked the NBA world on June 28, 2017, when Paul surprisingly picked up his player option –avoiding free agency altogether – and accepted a trade to Houston. This “opt-in-and-trade” avenue now seems much more obvious in hindsight. Let’s take a quick look at a couple of high-end players who can either hit unrestricted free agency this summer or pick up the player option on their existing contract:
LeBron James and
Paul George.
Bring In the King
The Rockets would do just about anything to acquire The World’s Greatest Basketball Player.
Even as he is playing in his eighth consecutive NBA Finals (and fourth consecutive Finals with the
Cleveland Cavaliers), there is a very real concern in Cleveland that LeBron will leave the Cavs (again) this summer. If he picks Houston as his preferred destination, Morey and the Rockets will move mountains to try to make it happen. The last time LeBron left Cleveland (in 2010, when he embarrassed himself and the entire City of Cleveland on an ill-advised televised special), the Cavs nevertheless agreed to sign-and-trade him to Miami in order to salvage
something from the loss of their star. The Rockets will be hoping the Cavs are similarly inclined this time around, especially after LeBron brought a championship to Cleveland during his latest stint with them. Interestingly, based on current cap projections, LeBron can actually make slightly
more in 2018-19 by opting into the final year of his deal with the Cavs (at $35.61 million) than the largest starting salary he could get in free agency ($35.35 million).
Any trade for LeBron will need to include Anderson or Gordon, possibly both. (For those trying to add up salaries, the Rockets will need to send out at least $26,548,568 if they consummate a trade prior to July 1, or at least $28,406,375 if they make a trade after July 1.) If Anderson is not included, then any trade will need to include Gordon, Tucker and a whole bunch of smaller salaries. If Anderson is included, he (along with potentially significant assets) may need to be sent to a third team. Gordon could possibly headline the package going to the Cavs.
Further complicating matters is that Cleveland recently traded for
George Hill and
Jordan Clarkson – two guards with large 2018-19 salaries – making Gordon less enticing as a player asset. The Cavs team salary is so high that they’ll be well over the salary cap even if LeBron walks for nothing; but they also will not want to pay a bunch of luxury tax for a LeBron-less team. The Rockets could possibly find yet another team to take on Gordon in exchange for (less expensive) assets that can be sent to Cleveland, but trades are much more likely to fall apart the more teams get added to the mix.
For those into pipedreams, there is a scenario in which the Rockets could trade Anderson, Nene and non-rotation players (possibly including a signed-and-traded Tarik Black) for LeBron, without having to give up
any of Houston’s key rotation pieces. But the amount of future draft assets it would take to pull off such a trade is nearly unfathomable. Without fathom.
Getting all the stars to align to bring LeBron to Houston will be an extremely difficult task, one that is not very likely (despite what the Vegas odds-makers may speculate). But that won’t stop the Rockets from trying like hell to make it happen.
A PG-13 Feature?
While not quite the caliber of superstar that LeBron is, George represents the ideal wing to play alongside Harden and Paul: a souped-up combination of Gordon’s offense and Ariza’s defense. He is also still only 28 years old.
An opt-in-and-trade for George would involve at least two fairly large obstacles. First, the option year on George’s current deal pays him only $20.7 million, a far cry from the $30.3 million starting salary he could command as a free agent. Would George make the same sacrifice that Paul made last season in order to play on a legit contender (rather than with his hometown
Los Angeles Lakers, who will certainly offer him the max)? Second, any trade for George would need to involve the cooperation of the
Oklahoma City Thunder. The last time the Thunder and Rockets made a big trade, the Thunder didn’t exactly come out of it smelling like roses. Will
Sam Presti and company be willing to trade one of their top two players to a Western Conference rival?
A trade for George would almost certainly start with Gordon. His salary is close enough to George’s that only a little filler (a couple of minimum guys) would be necessary to match salaries. If George is truly ready to bolt for the Lakers – which would leave OKC with nothing – perhaps the Thunder would view Gordon as an adequate consolation prize who can contribute to their ongoing quest to revive their Western Conference relevancy.
$46.7 million dollars at 38 for Chis Paul. I don't know, brehs.
