1. Florida State Seminoles
Many years I go outside the box when picking a national champion instead of picking the preseason favorite; that won't be the case this year. Last year Florida State was my
No. 1 surprise team and just like the article states, they became yet another non-preseason AP top 10 team that went on to win the national title.
This year the Seminoles have the most talented team in the country, with seven of their eight positional units ranking in my top 10 and the other position (running back) ranking No. 12 in the country. The star, of course, is QB
Jameis Winston, who will attempt to become just the second repeat Heisman winner. Running back
Karlos Williams will now be the featured back after averaging 8.0 yards per carry last year and returning wide receiver
Rashad Greene has led the Seminoles in receiving in each of the last three years. The offensive line returns 114 career starts and is one of the best in the country.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Seminoles lose five of their top six tacklers but return six starters. The defensive line is led by DE
Mario Edwards Jr., who is a preseason All-American and will look to double his 9.5 tackles for loss from a year ago. While the linebacking corps has some questions, the secondary is the strength of the unit as it returns three starters, including All-American candidates
P.J. Williams,
Ronald Darby and
Jalen Ramsey.
The schedule sets up nicely as the Seminoles get a very inexperienced Oklahoma State team in the opener. They get Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida all at home, which are arguably their three toughest foes. Last year they won their games by an average of 52-12 and could very well be a double-digit favorite in every game this year. While they have the large target of being the defending champs, they clearly have the talent and schedule to repeat and get my call to do so in the first year of the College Football Playoff.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
The only two times Alabama didn't win the BCS title in the past five years were the two times it entered the season No. 1 in the AP poll. That likely won't be the case this year, as the Seminoles
should open the season No. 1.
The Crimson Tide have won three national titles under head Nick Saban and two of them have come with first-year starting quarterbacks (Greg McElroy in 2009, A.J. McCarron in 2011). This year's projected starting quarterback
Jacob Coker was in a legitimate battle with Winston for Florida State's starting job last year. This year he gets the benefit of working with my No. 1 set of running backs in the country (led by TJ Yeldon and
Derrick Henry), my No. 2 set of receivers (led by preseason first-team All-American
Amari Cooper) and my No. 8 overall offensive line. I feel Coker will do just fine playing in new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin's system.
The defense returns just five starters but I rank their defensive line, led by
A'Shawn Robinson, eighth in the country. Despite the huge loss of C.J. Mosley,
Trey DePriest is back to lead a linebacking corps that I rate No. 4 in the country. The defensive backs are always a point of emphasis under Saban and also rank No. 4 in the nation.
As far as the schedule goes, the path is not as clear-cut as the Seminoles', with road games at LSU and Ole Miss (both of which rank in my preseason top 20). The Crimson Tide do get Auburn at home on Nov. 29 and will be playing with revenge, but then would have the SEC Championship game the following week. Still, there is no better coach in the country than Saban and he is in his preferred spot this year with the talent to win it all.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes enter this year on a two-game losing streak, but I don't think Urban Meyer suddenly has forgotten how to coach. Prior to those two losses, he had inherited a 6-7 team and guided them to a school-record 24 consecutive wins. He has yet to lose a regular-season game at Ohio State.
This year the Buckeyes return 12 starters, including Heisman candidate QB
Braxton Miller. The biggest question mark on the team might be the offensive line, but just two years ago offensive line coach Ed Warinner took a unit that lost three multiple-year starters (including a first-team All-American) and they actually improved their rushing yards per game, yards per carry and sacks allowed.
On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes return seven starters on what figures to be a much-improved defense. They have my No. 1 defensive line in the country led by All-Americans
Michael Bennett and
Joey Bosa.
The schedule sets up nicely as they avoid the top four teams out of the Big Ten West division in Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin. If Miller stays healthy, they have a great shot at running the table with their toughest test being a road trip to Michigan State on Nov. 8.
4. Oklahoma Sooners
No team in the country outside of Florida State comes into the season with more momentum than the Sooners. While a lot of times analysts overreact to bowl performances, their 45-31 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama was that impressive. They have 14 returning starters and rank in my top positional units in all eight categories (four positions rank in the top 12 nationally). Overall, they have my No. 12 offense, No. 8 defense and No. 9 special teams and a great shot at making the playoffs.
Quarterback
Trevor Knight looks to pick up where he left off with that superb bowl performance, and he will have to considering the Sooners return only five starters on offense. The defense should be the best in Norman since 2009, as it returns nine starters led by defensive end
Charles Tapper, linebacker
Eric Striker and cornerback
Zack Sanchez.
The Sooners also have the path of least resistance among the playoff contenders. They face my No. 49-rated schedule and are 57-4 at home the past 10 years. In their five true road games they take on just one team that had a winning record last year (although TCU will be tough). They also have the advantage of not having to play a conference championship game and get the all-important game against Baylor at home on Nov. 8.
5. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins actually come up No. 3 in my Power Poll, which does not take into consideration the schedule they face. Their 17 returning starters are the most of any of the main title contenders and they return their top four rushers, five of their top six receivers and 10 of their top 14 tacklers. They also have one of the most veteran and talented quarterbacks in the country in
Brett Hundley.
I actually have the Bruins favored in all 12 of their games and they get key games against Oregon, Stanford and USC all at home. However, there are six games where I have them as a touchdown-or-less favorite so there is a chance they could drop a game or two. On top of that they would have to play either Oregon or Stanford a second time in the Pac-12 title game.
Overall, they have my No. 5-rated offense, No. 12 defense and No. 4 special teams. With head coach Jim Mora now in his third year, they could find themselves in the playoff.
