OU - 20
UT - 16
If I were a betting man I would tell everyone to stay away from this bet. OU's offense or UT's defense isn't consistent enough to make a sound bet. My prediction is that OU doesn't beat the spread(-13)..... Nope not happening.
This game is going to be CLOSE. UT will coach and play beyond themselves because their jobs and public reputations are on the line. As bad as UT's tackling has been in the past couple of seasons, ONE GAME can change that perception. UT is gonna use the TCU game plan, which contrary to popular belief, UT doesn't need a lockdown secondary to make OU's offense ineffective. All they need is to get consistent pressure and penetration to take away the run and short passing routes. Bell isn't going to beat them throwing the ball downfield because he doesn't want to risk INT's. Sound coverage play will get the job done. Blake Bell isn't a fast running QB so if UT can't stop him from scrambling for first downs then they don't deserve to win. Texas has a wild card this year named Swoopes, so if Texas is in a position to win and Case McCoy ain't getting it done then Swoopes is going in. If Texas doesn't turn the ball over this year and either one of the UT QB's are competent then they may be able to pull of the upset.
For OU to win.... The OL has to dominate UT's DL for OU's entire offense to have a chance for success. Bell isn't going to play pitch & catch for OU like years past. The 2 defensive injuries(Nelson and Phillips) are gonna hurt at a time when OU needs to play lights out defense like they did in the first have of the TCU game. If OU wants to win this game comfortably then the defense needs to score at least 14 points off TO's, otherwise, this game will be close all day long. The X factor will be Corey Nelson's replacement, Frank Alexander. When Corey Nelson went down in the TCU game, OU defense fell off too. If no one steps up at MLB then the OU defense may be doomed. If OU's offense is ineffective then OU's only hope of winning this game is for Case McCoy to throw UT out of this game with pick 6's early... and if UT was smart, they wouldn't allow him to throw it often.