I'll say he should win, he's the best player on the best team in the West and he's done it without BI for half the season
Basketball Reference MVP tracker (based solely on stats/wins as compared to historical winners) has him in 7th place right now.
Problem is that he's 16th in the NBA in scoring and doesn't stick out in any other category. His team has the 4th best record in the NBA, with Jokic and the Nuggets just half a game behind.
Giannis and Tatum have better stats and better defense/intangibles on teams with better records, Jokic has better stats and better defense/intangibles on a team with basically the same record, and Luka has ridiculous stats. those four are going to dominate the MVP conversation with Zion maybe getting in the conversation for 5th unless something significant changes.
I think Tatum is most likely to win if everything continues as is, since Celtics might get the best record and Giannis/Jokic have voter fatigue. Luka will have a shot if the Mavs can win close to 50 games and none of the other frontrunners sticks out for some reason.