null
...
You trolling?
World Bank warns global economy may suffer 1970s-style stagflation
- Thread starter ADevilYouKhow
- Start date
You trolling?
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
I don’t think personal debt is that out of control rnThat would collapse the world economy. A full point.
I think they want to inflate the debt away (like in the 70's)
That is the only way out of the debt mountain they have built.
null
...
.
i'm including all debt. national. personal. institutional, why are you separating out "personal debt"?
the banking crisis almost took down the financial system 14 years ago and debt levels (and personal debt levels) were lower then and interest rates are heading back up.
what does your comment have to do with the govt "inflating the debt away"?
the system has been on life support since 2008 with debt still growing.
i don't think they have a solution other than a soft-reset of inflation.
or we could keep ambling along as we are ...
i'm including all debt. national. personal. institutional, why are you separating out "personal debt"?
the banking crisis almost took down the financial system 14 years ago and debt levels (and personal debt levels) were lower then and interest rates are heading back up.
what does your comment have to do with the govt "inflating the debt away"?
the system has been on life support since 2008 with debt still growing.
i don't think they have a solution other than a soft-reset of inflation.
or we could keep ambling along as we are ...
null
...
And the depth of this cycle would be a collapse.
If the FED pushes up rates like that then other central banks would have to follow the US up.
Markets don't like shocks. 1% has not been priced in. Moves like that would cause panic.
The world economy almost collapsed in 2008 and has been zombie supported by cheap money since then.
We were hours awsy from banks being shuttered in the UK in 2008.
And back then we still had room to drop rates and QE support into the economy.
Trade routes started to break down in 2021 with a still functioning economy.
Should the banking system fall apart trade would collapse overnight.
No more toilet paper again
"After the onset of the crisis, governments deployed massive bail-outs of financial institutions and other palliative monetary and fiscal policies to prevent a collapse of the global financial system"
2007–2008 financial crisis - Wikipedia
"If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it."
How The World Almost Came To An End At 2PM On September 18
LiveLeak has caught a scary moment of previously undisclosed insight by Paul Kanjorski where he reveals some facts that have not been captur...
zerohedge.blogspot.com
null
...
Let's start with your start. Who said anything about the markets?
The OP says the "economy". We are talking about the economy.
-
The rest of your post was rot but let's step through it.
You said "priced in" what other metric were you referring to?
I got a bit of time, what was rot about it?
null
...
example of priced in: long terms funds purchased on the money market for use for investment by your pension fund or perhaps to offer you a mortgage.
"not priced in" means that pension fund A's balance sheet falls apart because they will have lent money at projected rates that they can no longer fund.
example of priced in: BMW international money flows (realised amounts) are distorted due to inward flows of funds to high-IR USA.
example of priced in: UK rates would have to follow the USA's up. the majority of mortgage interest is variable in the UK and this move would put pressure on already streched budgets and the current "cost of living crisis"
example of priced in: USA raisimg interest rates to that degree will attract international investment funds to the USD thereby affetcting the ability of any country which does not follow the USA up (with all that that means for their local economy), to fund their current account deficit.
example of priced in: BMW can no longer fund their financial services in the USA because the cost of dollars (and local wages) have gone up. this means they can no longer finance car purchases and leases which is the way they move most of their cars in the USA.
in fact I could go on forever listing things (which have nothing to do with "20% falls on the stock market") but I have things to do.
so let me say this
the "stock market" that you thought my comment implied is the baby brother to the debt (bond) market. in addition include derivatives (ex stock), currency and commodities markets.
archerbaycapital.com
"priced in" means how participants in the entire global financial economy (not the stock market) project prices and rates going forward.
this means that projections in " insurance, finance, and other industries" by "Actuarial science" will no longer be valid thereby distorting " insurance, finance, and other industries".
"Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance, finance, and other industries and professions. More generally, actuaries apply rigorous mathematics to model matters of uncertainty."
en.wikipedia.org
The collapse in 2008 was caused by freezing in the debt (bonds/repo/lending) markets.
"The so-called credit crunch began after the subprime meltdown of late 2007. High-risk loans on banks' balance sheets became almost worthless, and as banks were forced to take large writedowns on these so-called "toxic assets," they became less likely to lend, unwilling to take on more risk.
For much of the year, financial institutions were in a quandary. They had difficulty acquiring loans and at the same time resisted issuing loans. The credit crunch made everything from financing payrolls to getting car, student and home loans difficult for businesses and borrowers."
"not priced in" means that pension fund A's balance sheet falls apart because they will have lent money at projected rates that they can no longer fund.
example of priced in: BMW international money flows (realised amounts) are distorted due to inward flows of funds to high-IR USA.
example of priced in: UK rates would have to follow the USA's up. the majority of mortgage interest is variable in the UK and this move would put pressure on already streched budgets and the current "cost of living crisis"
example of priced in: USA raisimg interest rates to that degree will attract international investment funds to the USD thereby affetcting the ability of any country which does not follow the USA up (with all that that means for their local economy), to fund their current account deficit.
example of priced in: BMW can no longer fund their financial services in the USA because the cost of dollars (and local wages) have gone up. this means they can no longer finance car purchases and leases which is the way they move most of their cars in the USA.
in fact I could go on forever listing things (which have nothing to do with "20% falls on the stock market") but I have things to do.
so let me say this
the "stock market" that you thought my comment implied is the baby brother to the debt (bond) market. in addition include derivatives (ex stock), currency and commodities markets.
The Bond Market is More Important than the Stock Market - Archer Bay Capital
The bond market is more important to the economy that the stock market. Find out why.
archerbaycapital.com
"priced in" means how participants in the entire global financial economy (not the stock market) project prices and rates going forward.
this means that projections in " insurance, finance, and other industries" by "Actuarial science" will no longer be valid thereby distorting " insurance, finance, and other industries".
"Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance, finance, and other industries and professions. More generally, actuaries apply rigorous mathematics to model matters of uncertainty."
Actuarial science - Wikipedia
The collapse in 2008 was caused by freezing in the debt (bonds/repo/lending) markets.
"The so-called credit crunch began after the subprime meltdown of late 2007. High-risk loans on banks' balance sheets became almost worthless, and as banks were forced to take large writedowns on these so-called "toxic assets," they became less likely to lend, unwilling to take on more risk.
For much of the year, financial institutions were in a quandary. They had difficulty acquiring loans and at the same time resisted issuing loans. The credit crunch made everything from financing payrolls to getting car, student and home loans difficult for businesses and borrowers."
what does that have to do with a "detached stock market" and "stock market falls of 20%"?
do you understand finance and economics?
*written while on the phone so ...
The fed is raising rates 50bps next week and likely 100 in the next 60 days.That would collapse the world economy. A full point
I think they want to inflate the debt away (like in the 70's)
That is the only way out of the debt mountain they have built.
null
...
Great so you don't understand economics.
Once again why did you limit what I said to the stock market?
You "have time" so answer that.
Or are you going to keep dodging it.
That was my first question to you .. what is the answer
null
...
ok cool.
so you think that the FED is going to raise IR's a full percent every quarter until inflation falls back withiin target?
OP said "In the case of America, they should be raising interest rates a full point every quarter till this thing is dead. Induce a serve recession and get rid of it!"
They will this quarter but no, not every quarter. Your point is understood