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I only read up to your first point. And you're so far off that the rest wasn't worth my royal attentionMicrosoft’s next gen strategy doesn’t look any different than their current strategy. Let me explain....
The current thinking now Is that a cheap 1080p Series X retailing at $299 will somehow win the console war for Microsoft due to price alone. First of all, there’s already on the market a cheap Xbox One S, yet it hasn’t outsold the more expensive Xbox One X nor has it done much to stop the PS4 juggernaut, so how will this be any different?
Clearly price isn’t the only deciding factor as we’ve seen from the cheap Switch Lite not outselling the more expensive Switch, nor did the 20gb 499 PS3 outsell the 599 60gb PS3. I can think of a lot of examples in tech where the more expensive product outsells it’s cheaper version. Value, and perception of it is just as, if not more important just price alone.
Another idea is that Gamepass will be a game changer next gen, especially if bundled with the cheap Series S but Gamepass is already a thing and has been for at least 3yrs, but somehow in November this 3yr product will suddenly become a hot service? Why? Are big third parties finally bringing their games on the service day one? Not likely.
Also this idea that we are in a recession and that gamers will become price conscious doesn’t hold weight. Video games have been booming in the last three months during big job losses and lockdowns and I can’t see that changing.
Apart from Xcloud which obviously will be a success but not in the near future, nothing about their next gen strategy is any different than the current one.
But the xbox one s isn't the cheap model. It's the mid tier model. The base model is the low end. The one s can do hdr and upscale 4k. But ultimately to Microsoft the one s is the base model standard. The xbox series s is an under spec'd base model. So it would be like a weaker xbox one that targeted 900p,60fps and would have no problems hitting it consistently. I'm sure a console like that would of had a place this gen. If that and the one x were the standards starting this gen I suspect things would have played out differently. You can disagree but we'll both find out in a few months