Malls have been in trouble for a while now. Just google malls failing and a ton of stories pop up. Apparently, upscale malls are doing well. Middle class malls with traditional anchor stores like JC Penny, Sears, etc are struggling.
Sneakernomics: The American Mall Is Doomed
Sneakernomics: The American Mall Is Doomed
Matt Powell
Contributor
Sneakernomics: I write about the culture and business of sports
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
I estimate that more than two thirds of all sneaker sales in the US came from malls or from stores in the nexus of malls. With the American mall in decline and likely doomed, the changes to the sneaker business will be profound.
History of the American Mall
The “mallification” of America was the last major revolution in retail. Enabled by the network of interstate highways built in the 50’s, retail moved to the suburbs along with the Baby Boomers. Since the advent of the mall, we’ve had minor retail trends: outlets, “lifestyle centers”, and the rise of Walmart and of course the “Category Killer” big box formats.
Malls were built and people came, in droves. But now we find that America is overstored with nearly 50 square feet of retail for every man, woman and child. The next closest country in England with about 10 square feet per person.
So since the beginning of the Bush recession, we have seen malls die as a square footage rationalization has begun, with spending no longer sustaining the overstored situation.
The Internet accelerates the death of the Mall
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The Internet is the next major retail revolution.
As we noted
here, over the last few years, sneaker sales growth on the internet has vastly outpaced the sales growth in physical stores. According to my analysis of the data from SportsOneSource.com, Sales of sneakers in physical stores grew in the low singles in 2011, but were up by more than half in on the internet. In 2012, sneakers sold through brick and mortar doors again grew in the low singles while sales on the web increased by a third. In 2013, sneaker sales in physical stores grew in the low singles while eCommerce grew about 20%. Year to date, sneaker sales on the web grew in the low teens, while sales in brick and mortar retail again grew in the low singles. Clearly the internet is driving most of the growth in sport footwear.
And this growth is not incremental. Ecommerce will continue to cannibalize physical stores.
Mall anchors in decline
Sears, Best Buy and J. C. Penney, retailers aimed squarely at middle-class Americans, are in dire straits. Sears Holiday Comps were -8%; Best Buy -1%; JCP +2% but burning cash. All three have closed stores in recent years and will likely face even more closings.
No new enclosed malls have been built in the United States since 2006. Alix Partners: “The combined forces of margin pressures and the continued growth in ecommerce will form a perfect storm that forces retailers to prune their store counts meaningfully and thoughtfully.”
Green Street Advisors: “About 15% of U.S. malls will fail or be converted into non-retail space within the next 10 years.” That’s an increase from less than two years ago, when the firm predicted 10% of malls would fail or be converted.
Howard Davidowitz:” Within 15 to 20 years, as many as half of America’s shopping malls will fail.” He predicts that only upscale shopping centers with anchors like Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus will survive. “Middle-level stores in middle-level malls are going to be extinct because they don’t make sense, that’s why we haven’t built a major enclosed mall since 2006.”
Green Street Advisors: “Of the roughly 1,000 malls in the U.S., about 400 cater to upper-income shoppers. For those higher-end malls, business is improving. It’s the lower-end malls that are being hit by store closures.”
The health of America’s malls depends on the health of the retailers in them. And those retailers depend on the health and attitudes of the consumers in their shopping area. Neither of these conditions is in very good shape right now.