Koch brothers are spending a lot of money on down ballot races to get people out and to keep people like Rubio in. They are why Feingold lost his 9 point leading in Wisconsin for example. HRC's lead is also down in Michigan, etc. This basically means some white people are coming back to Trump. They've proven effective at spending money to get people out to vote before, I don't see why this will be different. Also, I think these surges in early voting only matter if there's a large turnout on election day, I don't know if young people vote at 2012 level and it's looking like black people won't (obviously). Then you add in Jill Stein taking 1% of the vote and it may be tight. On the flip side, if Dem turnout is high then the map will look like
@bsmooth 's map.
Basically, I see it as either a close Clinton win or a straight up Clinton blow out. I don't see any path for Trump. He could very well find a way to lose Iowa, Ohio and if black people vote straight ticket then MO will be closer than predicted as well.