Well the polls are finally over...make your official electoral college prediction

[Dusty Bake Activate]

The election definitely will be closer than I initially thought. But I got Hillary 308-230.

I have Hillary getting FL, NH, NV, and PA.

And I have Trump getting OH and NC.

See who I think wins the 2016 President Races

 

[Dameon Farrow]

I'm close to your prediction. Recent articles and polls are showing Florida for Clinton but......I'm not a fan of polls. Demographics could swing it her way I believe. But I have a feeling Trump still has a chance at FL. Can't see Trump taking NC. Like I said, me and you come very close. Probably have most of the same states laid out.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

I'm close to your prediction. Recent articles and polls are showing Florida for Clinton but......I'm not a fan of polls. Demographics could swing it her way I believe. But I have a feeling Trump still has a chance at FL. Can't see Trump taking NC. Like I said, me and you come very close. Probably have most of the same states laid out.

My reasoning behind giving Hill FL and Trump NC...

The hispanic vote is higher in raw number and as a percentage of electorate than in 2012 when Obama barely won. And their early voting turnout is showing an increase. And they favor Hill more than they did Obama in 2012. At the same time the white vote is down by an equal percentage of the electorate as the hispanic vote is up. There's a significant amount of new Puerto Rican voters in central FL and Puerto Ricans are the most pro-Hillary of latin America nationalities. Also Puerto Ricans are already citizens so they get here already ready to vote, unlike Mexicans, Cubans, etc. And I think Trump will get less of the Cuban vote than any previous Republican. 2nd and 3rd generation Cubans are starting to swing to the democratic side and Trump's business dealings with Castro will have a negative effect. Black turnout looks a little down, but I think the increase in hispanic voters will more than negate that loss. And there is reason to believe that polls may be under representing hispanics due to the language gap in phone polling. Romney was leading in 13 out of 20 FL polls in October and November 2012 and he lost.

As far as NC, I think black turnout will be down from 2012 and Obama couldn't even win in it 2012 with higher black turnout. I also think the crooked GOP establishment in that state is pulling some black voter suppression fukkery on top of the lower black voluntary turnout.

I don't know though. We'll have to see in 2 days.

 

[Saiyajin]

I agree with you on everything but I'm optimistic that NC will also go to her. I feel the negative press surrounding the GOP's blatant vote suppression in NC will lead to some backlash especially with the Judge referring to it as Jim Crow-esqe. Doesn't really matter except

The larger of a victory by Hillary the larger the GOP will shift try to left in 4 years

 

[Dameon Farrow]

My reasoning behind giving Hill FL and Trump NC...

The hispanic vote is higher in raw number and as a percentage of electorate than in 2012 when Obama barely won. And their early voting turnout is showing an increase. And they favor Hill more than they did Obama in 2012. At the same time the white vote is down by an equal percentage of the electorate as the hispanic vote is up. There's a significant amount of new Puerto Rican voters in central FL and Puerto Ricans are the most pro-Hillary of latin America nationalities. Also Puerto Ricans are already citizens so they get here already ready to vote, unlike Mexicans, Cubans, etc. And I think Trump will get less of the Cuban vote than any previous Republican. 2nd and 3rd generation Cubans are starting to swing to the democratic side and Trump's business dealings with Castro will have a negative effect. Black turnout looks a little down, but I think the increase in hispanic voters will more than negate that loss. And there is reason to believe that polls may be under representing hispanics due to the language gap in phone polling. Romney was leading in 13 out of 20 FL polls in October and November 2012 and he lost.

As far as NC, I think black turnout will be down from 2012 and Obama couldn't even win in it 2012 with higher black turnout. I also think the crooked GOP establishment in that state is pulling some black voter suppression fukkery on top of the lower black voluntary turnout.

I don't know though. We'll have to see in 2 days.

I'm ready. Let's do this.

 

[Paper Boi]

i just feel bad for all my friends who live in those states that are gonna go trump. like i don't taunt them enough for not joining me back in the homestate.


i refuse to make a prediction on this as someone who majored in polisci. idk how much of trump's base will actually vote and how many people are low key gonna vote for him and won't admit it in polls. that's why nate silver out here hedging his bets too.



i hope it goes exactly how the math says it should, but i can't make a prediction with any kind of confidence.

 

[Dameon Farrow]

I agree with you on everything but I'm optimistic that NC will also go to her. I feel the negative press surrounding the GOP's blatant vote suppression in NC will lead to some backlash especially with the Judge referring to it as Jim Crow-esqe. Doesn't really matter except

The larger of a victory by Hillary the larger the GOP will shift try to left in 4 years

Man to get NC and FL.It could happen.

 

[Saiyajin]

i just feel bad for all my friends who live in those states that are gonna go trump. like i don't taunt them enough for not joining me back in the homestate.


i refuse to make a prediction on this as someone who majored in polisci. idk how much of trump's base will actually vote and how many people are low key gonna vote for him and won't admit it in polls. that's why nate silver out here hedging his bets too.



i hope it goes exactly how the math says it should, but i can't make a prediction with any kind of confidence.

the way i see it any state that goes red this election is not worth visiting until they pledge to increase the funding for their education significantly

voting for a man saying climate change is a CHINESE hoax

 

[Paper Boi]

the way i see it any state that goes red this election is not worth visiting until they pledge to increase the funding for their education significantly

voting for a man saying climate change is a CHINESE hoax

no doubt, but then again as a californian i think many red states aren't worth visiting period.

 

[StatUS]

At 8 PM ET Florida, Maine, and New Hampshire close. If Trump can take Florida and grab New Hampshire and a point in Maine it's gonna be a nail biter for some people until 10 PM ET when Nevada closes.

But if Hillary takes North Carolina before 8 it's a wrap, Trump would have no path.

 

[Misanthrope]

I'm predicting 307-225-6, the same as Mephistopheles's map, but with McMullin winning Utah and Trump winning northern Maine.

I wonder where I can put a bet on McMuffin winning Utah...

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

delete

 

[the cac mamba]

trump has the most hidden voters of all time, this i guarantee

openly saying you're a trump supporter, if you're white, has the connotation of being a racist. the other thing is that i see a fair amount of men in this country getting cold feet about voting for a woman

those arent my opinions, i mean there are enough racist trump supporters to make that a fair guess, and sexism is still a real thing. personally i would vote for a woman president, but not this one

all in all, hillary wins this thing but its not as far as people think. i see it coming close

 

[hashmander]

 

[Dameon Farrow]

the way i see it any state that goes red this election is not worth visiting until they pledge to increase the funding for their education significantly

Man you hit me straight to the bone with that one. Jindal and these Republicans have done a number on education here in Louisiana. They love to cut that shyt. There's hope with Bel Edwards though. I voted him in and I stand with him.