Disclaimer: Bleacher Report
Updated Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team
Updated Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team
Thanks to Stephen Curry's record-shattering exploits from beyond the three-point arc and Draymond Green's newfound affinity for triple-doubles, the Golden State Warriors are basically breaking FATS. The system can't handle how well this team grades out, since it can only compare it to the other top dogs throughout the annals of the NBA.
Take, for example, the Association-best effective field-goal percentageof 55.8. When accounting for era by comparing it to the league-average mark of 49.6, the Warriors emerge with an adjusted score of 112.5, indicating that they're 12.5 percent better than average.
Problematically, my databases show that no team in NBA history has ever posted an adjusted effective field-goal percentage better than the 2012-13 Miami Heat's 111.29. In fact, only the 2006-07 Phoenix Suns and 1984-85 Los Angeles Lakers join them on the right side of 111.
So when we're comparing the Warriors to historical teams in this category, they're just flat-out better than them, and FATS can't account for that. Oh, and effective field-goal percentage happens to be the portion of the Four Factors that correlates best with wins throughout NBA history, so that's kind of a big deal.
Barring major injuries (which they still might overcome), the Warriors have to be considered a virtual lock to hit 70 wins this year. From this point forward, they'd have to go "only" 38-10 in order to get there, and that winning percentage correlates to a 65-victory pace over a full season. Hell, they just need to play at a 68-win pace in order to match the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls for all-time supremacy.
But can you even see this team losing six more games throughout the season? That's a tough enough proposition, and it would still give Golden State the record with room to spare.
Final Projection: 74-8