US Sponsored “Color Revolution” Struggles in Hong Kong. UPDATE: US Target Xinjiang

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14 May 2021
US, Japan, France Hold First Joint Drills in Japanese Territory with Eye on China

Japan is looking to boost military cooperation with 'like-minded' countries
By Dave DeCamp


The US, France, and Japan on Tuesday began joint ground and naval military exercises, marking the first time the three countries are holding drills together in Japanese territory.



The week-long exercises come as the US is looking to boost military cooperation between its allies in the region to counter China. Tensions between Japan and China have been high due to a dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

The exercises started in the Nagasaki Prefecture at Camp Ainoura, where Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade is headquartered. The Japanese amphibious unit was established in 2018 and was created to focus on outlying islands that Japan claims, like the Senkakus, or Diayous as they are known in China.

Speaking to reporters, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishisaid Tokyo was looking to expand its military ties with “like-minded” countries beyond the US. He described France as “a like-minded country that shares with Japan the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Australia will also join a part of the exercises that will be held in the East China Sea. The US, Japan, Australia, and India form the informal grouping known as the Quad, which is seen as a possible foundation for a NATO-style military alliance in Asia. France joined the Quad for military exercises when it led naval drills in the Bay of Bengal.

Strengthening military ties in Asia is a crucial part of the Biden administration’s China policy. In his first address to Congress, President Biden said he told Chinese President Xi Jinping that the US “will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe.”

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18 May 2021

China Blocks US Bases in Central Asia
By M. K. Bhadrakumar


Ten months after the first meeting of the foreign ministers of China and the five Central Asian states, Beijing has followed through with a second session on May 11 at a gathering in Xi’an, China, hosted by Foreign Minister Wang Yi.


The venue is symbolic. The ancient city of Xi’an used to be the ‘terminus a quo’ of the Silk Road. And, perhaps, the timing too, as this is also the 25th anniversary of the ‘Shanghai Five’ process, where China, quietly but steadily, began building up its economic, military, and diplomatic relations with Central Asia and presented itself as viable partner.

The Xi’an meeting is a watershed event as it creates ‘institutional guarantee’ for the nascent ‘C+C5’ framework. The participants agreed on a memorandum of understanding to establish a regional cooperation mechanism, promote the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road and establish three research centres to carry out cooperation.

‘A journey of a thousand Chinese miles (li) starts beneath one’s feet,’ the ancient Chinese proverb says. Even as the Shanghai Five process blossomed into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, C+C5 too appears to be destined to scale heights.

The Shanghai Five consisted of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, also had a modest beginning in 1996 as it emerged from a series of border demarcation and demilitarisation talks which the four former Soviet republics held with China. The institutionalisation of the C+C5 also marks a turning point in regional security — as the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan gets under way amidst speculation that Pentagon is looking for basing facilities in Central Asian countries.

Interestingly, the shadows of the great game have appeared too. The Xi’an meeting comes within eighteen days of a similar meeting in ‘C5+1’ format with the participation of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (in virtual mode of course.) Inner Asia is famous for shamanic spirits and Buddhist gods. It is unclear whether Blinken stole a march or vice versa.

An editorial in China Daily, the government newspaper, on Thursday flagged the high importance attached by Beijing to the C+C5 diplomatic initiative. It noted that the C+C5 mechanism “outlines an action plan that provides a stronger institutional guarantee for their cooperation.”

The editorial continued,

“Transforming their shared will to pursue common development into concrete projects and actions, they have agreed to establish a C+C5 regional cooperation mechanism, promote the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road and establish three research centers to carry out cooperation in modern agriculture, archaeological and cultural heritage and traditional medicine.”

More importantly, the editorial said that the C+C5 meeting strengthened the “strategic mutual trust, and agreed to make concerted efforts to build a China and Central Asia community with a shared future… (and) work together to promote regional security and stability and safeguard international justice.”

It highlighted a joint statement issued after the discussions as regards “their joint efforts to promote peaceful reconciliation in Afghanistan, demonstrating that the six countries will play a bigger role as a whole… That they have agreed to establish a regular meeting mechanism of the C+C5 foreign ministers indicates they are well aware of the importance of regional unity and coordination.”

Beijing’s motivations appear to be two-fold: send “a clear signal that they (C+C5) stand together in opposing interference in their internal affairs, and any actions threatening their core development interests”; and, emphatically state “their common contention that Central Asia is neither a stage for any power to engineer a colour revolution nor a place where any power can attempt to sow seeds of discord”.

Foreign Minister Wang stressed that it is necessary for neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, “to coordinate their positions in a timely manner, speak with one voice, and fully support the Afghan domestic peace process to overcome difficulties and move forward.”

Equally, a commentary in the Global Times has elaborated on Beijing’s concerns that the US pull out “could leave chaotic situations and the region could become a breeding ground for “Three Evils” — terrorism, separatism and religious extremism.

The commentary cited expert opinion that aside Russia and China, the Central Asian countries will also be “reluctant to host US military deployment on their soil”, since increased US political and intelligence activities and involvement with local opposition parties, NGOs and media groups would only lead to colour revolution. “In general, US troops are not very welcome in the region.”

Besides, the Chinese experts are also worried that the hasty US pullout may stall the Afghan peace process and engender civil war conditions, while the US allowed the region to become a ‘breeding ground’ for the ‘Three Evils’ and poppy cultivation — “and now Washington wants to leave this mess to the regional countries.”

At the Xi’an meeting, Wang elaborated China’s position on the Afghan peace process as such. The 3 key elements are: the need for inclusive political arrangements to make sure all ethnic groups and parties could participate; drafting of a constitution that conforms to unique Afghan national conditions and development needs, instead of imitating western-style democracy; and, “moderate Muslim policy” as state iedology.

Beijing claims that its approach and Russia’s are complementary — “Russia caring more about security, and China has the economic capability.” Now, wouldn’t SCO have served the purpose? One reason could be that the SCO is no longer the same after the induction of India and Pakistan as members.

Conceivably, Russia, which is already focused on the upcoming summit with POTUS, remains chary of touching American raw nerves. That probably puts the onus on Beijing to do the heavy lifting. An exclusive ope-ed in the CCP organ People’s Daily today is titled U.S. can’t just get away from it all in Afghan issues. It concludes,

“At present, the US is the biggest exterior factor of the Afghan issues. The White House shall not duck its responsibilities and get away from it all. Its withdrawal must be implemented in an orderly and responsible manner, and aim at preventing further escalation of violence in the country and preventing terrorist forces from ramping up and creating trouble. It shall create a favourable exterior environment for the Intra-Afghan Negotiations, not the other way around.”

Indeed, Moscow would consider it injudicious to be so outspoken at this juncture, knowing how ultra-sensitive Biden would be. In fact, the US troops vacated the massive Kandahar airbase under cover of darkness in the night of May 11-12 without even informing Afghan officials.

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26 May 2021
Why the EU Sides Against China
By Manlio Dinucci


The art of war. The European Parliament froze on May 20 the ratification of the EU-China Investment Agreement, signed in December by the European Commission after seven years of negotiations


On May 20 the European Parliament froze the ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. The agreement was signed by the European Commission after seven years of negotiations last December. The resolution was approved by an overwhelming majority: 599 votes in favor, 30 against and 58 abstentions. It is formally motivated as a response to Chinese sanctions against members of the European Parliament. Beijing decided the sanctions after its officials were subjected to sanctions on the accusation, rejected by China, of violating human rights in particular the Uighurs’ rights. EU lawmakers argued that while Chinese sanctions are illegal because they violate international law, European sanctions are legal because they are based on the human rights defense sanctioned by the United Nations.

What is the real reason behind the “defense of human rights in China” screen? The strategy, launched and led by Washington, to recruit European countries in the coalition against Russia and China. The fundamental lever of this operation is the fact that 21 of 27 countries of the European Union are NATO members under US command. In the front row against China, as well as against Russia, there are the Eastern countries. They are NATO and EU members at the same time. They more linked to Washington than to Brussels, so they increase the US influence on EU foreign politics.


The EU politics basically follows the US policy, especially through NATO. However, not all US allies are on the same level: Germany and France negotiate under the table with the United States on the basis of their mutual convenience, Italy instead obeys and keeps silent to the detriment of its own interests. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg can thus declare at the end of the meeting with French President Macron on May 21: “We will uphold the international rules-based order against the authoritarian push-back from countries like Russia and China”.

NATO has until now overshadowed the “threat” of China by focusing its strategy against Russia, but is now placing China on the same level. This decision comes in the wake of what they are doing in Washington. Here the strategy against China is about to become law. The draft law S.1169 on Strategic Competition with China was presented to the United States Senate on April 15, on the bipartisan initiative of the Democrat Menendez and the Republican Risch. The motivation for this law leaves no doubt that it is an all-out confrontation:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is leveraging its political, diplomatic, economic, military, technological, and ideological power to become a strategic, near-peer, global competitor of the United States. The policies increasingly pursued by the PRC in these domains are contrary to the interests and values of the United States, its partners, and much of the rest of the world”.

On this basis, the US Senate Strategic Competition Act will establish political, economic, technological, media, military, and other measures against China, aimed at targeting and isolating this country. It is a real declaration of war, and not figuratively. Admiral Davidson, who heads the US Indo-Pacific Command, asked the Congress for $ 27 billion to build a curtain of missile bases and satellite systems around China, including a constellation of space-platform radars. Meanwhile, US military pressure on China is increasing: missile launching warships of the Seventh Fleet cross in the South China Sea, US Air Force strategic bombers have been deployed on the island of Guam in the West Pacific, while the US Navy Triton drones have been approached to China by transferring them from Guam to Japan.

In the footsteps of the United States, NATO is also extending its strategy to East Asia and the Pacific where – Stoltenberg announced – “We need to militarily strengthen together with close partners such as Australia and Japan“. The European Parliament has therefore not simply taken another step in the “sanctions war” against China. The EU Parliament took another step to bring Europe to war.

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17 June 2021
Biden’s China Policy Gets ASEAN Cold Shoulder

US leader's call to contain China isn't resonating with regional bloc or mutual defense treaty ally the Philippines
By Richard Javad Heydarian




US President Joseph Biden has been relatively successful in corralling Western allies against China, with the recently concluded G7 Summit culminating in a series of global initiatives to counter Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, vaccine diplomacy and rising maritime assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific.

The same, however, cannot be said about Southeast Asia, where Biden’s China policy has so far garnered at best lukewarm support.

During the latest round of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defense Ministers’ Meeting, virtually hosted by Brunei, regional defense chiefs called for “self-restraint” and the conclusion of a Code of Conduct (COC) among competing claimant states in the South China Sea.

But despite China’s rapidly expanding military and paramilitary presence across the disputed waters, the regional body once again demurred from directly mentioning Beijing’s recent aggressive actions that have raised diplomatic hackles in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Meanwhile, during the ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers Meetinglast week, Southeast Asian diplomats were quick to hail the “ASEAN-China partnership” and “very effective” cooperation between both sides.

America’s greatest source of frustration, however, is likely its regional treaty allies, most especially the Philippines.

After almost two weeks of diplomatic dilly-dallying, Manila announced that it has suspended the abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) anew, shutting down earlier hopes of the crucial defense deal’s full renewal following months of tough bilateral negotiations.

The VFA provides the legal framework for large-scale joint exercises and America’s military presence in the Philippines on a rotational basis.

The pact’s continuation is seen as pivotal to America’s future response to China’s militarization of the South China Sea, leveraging the Philippines’ jutting strategic position in the waterway. The US was previously involved in building up a base on the island of Palawan.

US-Philippines-Joint-Exercises-Military-2019.jpg


Philippine and US Marines during a surface-to-air missile simulation as part of exercise KAMANDAG on October 10, 2019. Photo: Lance Cpl. Brienna Tuck / US Marine Corps

The lingering uncertainty over Philippine-US defense cooperation has thrown a spanner in Washington’s works, as the Biden administration struggles to fully optimize the century-old alliance against China’s maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea, seen by many analysts as a pivotal theater in the superpowers’ intensifying rivalry.

Following an 11th hour multi-stakeholders meeting this week, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin announced a further six months suspension of the scheduled abrogation of the VFA, which would have otherwise expired by August.

“The president conveyed to us his decision to extend the suspension of the abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement by another six months while he studies and both sides further address his concerns regarding particular aspects of the agreement,” announced the chief Philippine diplomat.

Locsin clarified that the latest decision provides President Rodrigo Duterte, who initiated the pact’s abrogation amid human rights disagreements with Washington last year, an opportunity for further “studies” and “address[ing] his concerns regarding, particular aspects of the agreement.”

The decision to defer the VFA’s full restoration was largely anticlimactic. Weeks earlier, Philippine Ambassador to Washington, Jose Manuel Romualdez, had indicated without providing many details that the agreement was “improved” in order to become more “acceptable” and “mutually beneficial” to both countries.

“A lot of time has been spent by both countries to discuss some of the things that they wanted to improve in that agreement…. We’re very confident that it will pull through,” Romualdez said during a joint press conference with the US Embassy in Manila earlier this month.

“The VFA is very important for the MDT (Mutual Defense Treaty) to be operational and give it a little more teeth actually. We’ve had it for a number of years and we’re very hopeful, hopefully confident that the president will approve the continuance of the VFA,” the Philippine envoy added.

The Filipino diplomat emphasized the importance of the alliance with Washington granting up to US$690.5 million worth of military assistance over the past five years. He also highlighted Washington’s decision to place the Philippines among the first countries to receive American-made Covid-19 vaccines by the end of June.

For his part, the US embassy chargé d’affaires John Law hailed “very productive, very good conversations” between the two allies, and told reporters that “some very specific proposals related to how we can clarify and strengthen the implementation of the VFA” were already addressed during the negotiations.

Both the Pentagon and Philippine defense establishment still welcomed the suspension of the defense deal’s abrogation.

“The Department welcomes the government of the Philippines’ decision to again suspend termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

“We value the Philippines as an equal, sovereign partner in our bilateral alliance. Our partnership contributes not only to the security of our two nations, but also strengthens the rules-based order that benefits all nations in the Indo-Pacific,” he said.

Earlier, US Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kenneth Wilsbach admitted, how the absence of a VFA “restricts what I can do in the Philippines.”

Philippine Defense Secretary Defense Delfin Lorenzana, a former defense attache in Washington, expressed his department’s support since it gives the Filipino president more time to “further review the pros and cons of the VFA” to “arrive at an informed decision on the matter.”

“Our bilateral cooperation with the US is geared towards upholding our national interest and to the extent necessary to enhance the Philippines’ defense capability,” he added, making clear his preference for the restoration of the VFA under improved and mutually beneficial conditions.

This means the next deadline for renewal of the defense pact will be in December. The Filipino president is expected to meet Biden on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Brunei in November.

So far, neither side has provided details as to the specific areas of disagreement. But the Filipino president will likely leverage the VFA to extract further concessions, especially as he enters his twilight months in office with new elections due in mid-2022.

It’s unlikely that Washington will grant any major political concessions to the outgoing Filipino president, who has tried to win over its Southeast Asian ally by, among others, designating the Philippines as a priority for Covid-19 vaccine donations as well as granting up to $40 million in US foreign military financing for the next fiscal year.

By all indications, wooing the broader region will be even more difficult for Washington.

Last week, China hosted the latest rounds of bilateral meetings with ASEAN foreign ministers in person, in the southwestern Chinese city of Chongqing. In contrast, the Biden administration has yet to hold a single high-level meeting with its Southeast Asian counterparts.

During the ASEAN-China meeting, both sides largely downplayed their differences, including over the South China Sea disputes. Instead, they emphasized areas of common concern and cooperation

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi praised China’s large-scale vaccine provision to the region, including to her country and called for closer cooperation amid the still-raging pandemic.

“Beyond the issue of vaccines, the Asean-China partnership in building health resilience regionally is also important,” she said.

Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan was even more upbeat, praising “very effective” cooperation between the two sides. Deeply encouraged by the cordial exchanges, China’s Foreign Ministry hailed the meeting as a chance for both sides to “transform their contradictions into cooperation.”

During the ASEAN defense ministers meeting, however, the South China Sea disputes took center stage.

While calling for “self-restraint in the conduct of activities” and urging claimant states to “avoid actions that could complicate or escalate the situation,” ASEAN once again demurred from directly criticizing or even naming China.

Adopting a broadly diplomatic language no doubt approved by Beijing, Southeast Asian defense chiefs instead generically emphasized the importance of “the maintenance and promotion of peace, security, stability, safety and freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea.”
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Biden’s China policy gets ASEAN cold shoulder
 
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