Timothy Bradley Jr.'s take: What Canelo Alvarez and Dmitry Bivol need to do to win
Super middleweight undisputed champion Canelo Alvarez moves up in weight to challenge light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol for his WBA world title on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (DAZN PPV, 9 p.m. ET).
This will be Alvarez's second fight at 175 pounds. In November 2019, Alvarez defeated Sergey Kovalev by 11th-round TKO to win the WBO belt. He later vacated that belt to continue his quest at 168-pounds.
Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) defeated Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant to unify all four major super middleweight titles, and hopes to do the same at light heavyweight.
Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) won the WBA interim belt in 2016, but was elevated to "regular" champion in 2017 after Badou Jack vacated the title. In 2019 Bivol was elevated to "super" champion and has made three defenses of that belt.
"There's a reason why Alvarez picked Bivol," two-division champion and current ESPN boxing analyst Timothy Bradley Jr. said. "It is the challenge because Bivol is a more capable champion to upset Alvarez and Canelo just wants to face the best and be great. He believes he is great."
Bradley breaks down the matchup and picks the winner.
The matchup
ESPN Stats & Information
This fight is going to have a lot of action based on the style of both men. You have a versatile aggressive counter puncher in Alvarez against a boxer puncher in Bivol.
Alvarez has the experience to understand how to deal with a counter puncher. Alvarez has fought a lot. He's seen styles like Bivol's with Gennadiy Golovkin, Sergey Kovalev, Erislandy Lara and even Daniel Jacobs -- boxer-type punchers. So the know-how for Alvarez is there. He knows how to fight opponents like that.
Alvarez has all the tools. He's stronger than ever. His concentration is rising inside the ring; his stamina is through the roof, and his focus and natural-tactical ability to combat Bivol is there. He understands what he has to do -- keep Bivol against the ropes. He knows he has to punish him to the body. He knows he has to land his big shot over the top, because Bivol is taller. And he knows he has to take Bivol's jab away.
There are various ways for Alvarez to take the jab away from him. He can use his legs at times -- I've seen him do that against Golovkin, where Alvarez will use his legs and make GGG pick up his feet and move. He can also do it by knocking the jab down and counter it over or counter down to the body. That will force Bivol to keep his hands at home instead of being able to shoot his jab.
Bivol is an undersized light heavyweight. He's 6-foot, and he's used to fighting bigger guys. As a small guy, he understands the risk of fighting in the light heavyweight division, and he knows how dangerous that is. At the same time, he has above-average boxing skills and great footwork, which is one of his best qualities. Bivol also has an educated jab -- and that is a powerful jab that can stop opponents on his tracks. He has quickness and athleticism, which helps him maneuver around bigger guys in the ring and has proven to be a clear advantage for him. But what happens when he faces a guy that's undersized like he is, that's just as athletic as he is, that's also aggressive, that knows how to get inside and is strong enough to endure his punches and take it to him? That's the question that I have about Bivol.
It's almost like the advantage that he usually has at the light heavyweight division is a disadvantage for him for this fight. We will see if the reach advantage can serve him right during the fight. It's only a two-inch reach advantage, not a huge difference, but the disparity is with his height. Alvarez has fought guys with bigger reach -- he fought Callum Smith that has a 78-inch reach. Alvarez was able to take the jab away from Smith, so you'd think he can do the same thing against Bivol.
But one thing that Bivol has an advantage over Smith is his quick feet, and that could make things a little hard for Alvarez. Bivol has good footwork and in-and-out movements. He can change the distance immediately with his footwork. Bivol can jab and get out as Alvarez tries to counter. And he stays close enough so he can counter if Alvarez launches or makes a mistake or misses with a shot. And that's the reason Bivol has a chance in this fight. Unlike most of the guys that fight Alvarez -- Alvarez is always able to make ground on them and kind of push them back and bully them -- Bivol has heavy hands. He's also a great counter puncher. He doesn't use a lot of the ring -- he can stay in the center, make Alvarez miss and then make him pay.
No KOs, no problem
Bivol has no knockouts in his last six fights, but I think that lack of KOs would serve Bivol well in this fight. He's used to fighting 12 rounds. He's going to have to be conditioned enough to be able to deal with Alvarez putting pressure on him physically and mentally for all 36 minutes. So Bivol's lack of KOs, or the fact that he's gone 12 rounds a lot, is definitely a benefit for Bivol going into this fight. Alvarez is going to push him in areas where he's weak, and the area that I believe Bivol is weak is inside the pocket. That's where I see a lot of vulnerability for Bivol. He doesn't like to be inside. If Alvarez is going to force him to fight inside the pocket, Bivol is going to have to be strong mentally to keep him outside for 12 rounds, and dominate from there instead of letting Alvarez get his way.
Bivol has to stay disciplined. That's it. Bivol doesn't have to go with the current. Bivol needs to be the current. He needs to dictate the tempo, not fight at the tempo Alvarez wants to fight and make Alvarez react to him instead of him reacting to what his opponent does.
Fighters get in there and react to Alvarez. Canelo plays that game of, 'yeah, you can hit me, go ahead, hit me, hit me, wear yourself out' and by the sixth, seventh round they're gassed out because they put so much pressure on Alvarez, physically and mentally. If you come in there and you say 'I'm gonna fight at my pace, I'm gonna dominate you with my business, I'm not gonna let you be comfortable' and force Alvarez back, Alvarez will be forced to respect you. Bivol has the ability to do that. He's the bigger man, he's been in this weight class for some time, and he has punching power and great counter-punching ability. But he can't let Alvarez just dictate and slow down the pace. That will ultimately result in Alvarez's excessive pressure and punishing body shots.
Super middleweight undisputed champion Canelo Alvarez moves up in weight to challenge light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol for his WBA world title on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (DAZN PPV, 9 p.m. ET).
This will be Alvarez's second fight at 175 pounds. In November 2019, Alvarez defeated Sergey Kovalev by 11th-round TKO to win the WBO belt. He later vacated that belt to continue his quest at 168-pounds.
Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) defeated Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant to unify all four major super middleweight titles, and hopes to do the same at light heavyweight.
Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) won the WBA interim belt in 2016, but was elevated to "regular" champion in 2017 after Badou Jack vacated the title. In 2019 Bivol was elevated to "super" champion and has made three defenses of that belt.
"There's a reason why Alvarez picked Bivol," two-division champion and current ESPN boxing analyst Timothy Bradley Jr. said. "It is the challenge because Bivol is a more capable champion to upset Alvarez and Canelo just wants to face the best and be great. He believes he is great."
Bradley breaks down the matchup and picks the winner.
The matchup
ESPN Stats & Information
This fight is going to have a lot of action based on the style of both men. You have a versatile aggressive counter puncher in Alvarez against a boxer puncher in Bivol.
Alvarez has the experience to understand how to deal with a counter puncher. Alvarez has fought a lot. He's seen styles like Bivol's with Gennadiy Golovkin, Sergey Kovalev, Erislandy Lara and even Daniel Jacobs -- boxer-type punchers. So the know-how for Alvarez is there. He knows how to fight opponents like that.
Alvarez has all the tools. He's stronger than ever. His concentration is rising inside the ring; his stamina is through the roof, and his focus and natural-tactical ability to combat Bivol is there. He understands what he has to do -- keep Bivol against the ropes. He knows he has to punish him to the body. He knows he has to land his big shot over the top, because Bivol is taller. And he knows he has to take Bivol's jab away.
There are various ways for Alvarez to take the jab away from him. He can use his legs at times -- I've seen him do that against Golovkin, where Alvarez will use his legs and make GGG pick up his feet and move. He can also do it by knocking the jab down and counter it over or counter down to the body. That will force Bivol to keep his hands at home instead of being able to shoot his jab.
Bivol is an undersized light heavyweight. He's 6-foot, and he's used to fighting bigger guys. As a small guy, he understands the risk of fighting in the light heavyweight division, and he knows how dangerous that is. At the same time, he has above-average boxing skills and great footwork, which is one of his best qualities. Bivol also has an educated jab -- and that is a powerful jab that can stop opponents on his tracks. He has quickness and athleticism, which helps him maneuver around bigger guys in the ring and has proven to be a clear advantage for him. But what happens when he faces a guy that's undersized like he is, that's just as athletic as he is, that's also aggressive, that knows how to get inside and is strong enough to endure his punches and take it to him? That's the question that I have about Bivol.
It's almost like the advantage that he usually has at the light heavyweight division is a disadvantage for him for this fight. We will see if the reach advantage can serve him right during the fight. It's only a two-inch reach advantage, not a huge difference, but the disparity is with his height. Alvarez has fought guys with bigger reach -- he fought Callum Smith that has a 78-inch reach. Alvarez was able to take the jab away from Smith, so you'd think he can do the same thing against Bivol.
But one thing that Bivol has an advantage over Smith is his quick feet, and that could make things a little hard for Alvarez. Bivol has good footwork and in-and-out movements. He can change the distance immediately with his footwork. Bivol can jab and get out as Alvarez tries to counter. And he stays close enough so he can counter if Alvarez launches or makes a mistake or misses with a shot. And that's the reason Bivol has a chance in this fight. Unlike most of the guys that fight Alvarez -- Alvarez is always able to make ground on them and kind of push them back and bully them -- Bivol has heavy hands. He's also a great counter puncher. He doesn't use a lot of the ring -- he can stay in the center, make Alvarez miss and then make him pay.
No KOs, no problem
Bivol has no knockouts in his last six fights, but I think that lack of KOs would serve Bivol well in this fight. He's used to fighting 12 rounds. He's going to have to be conditioned enough to be able to deal with Alvarez putting pressure on him physically and mentally for all 36 minutes. So Bivol's lack of KOs, or the fact that he's gone 12 rounds a lot, is definitely a benefit for Bivol going into this fight. Alvarez is going to push him in areas where he's weak, and the area that I believe Bivol is weak is inside the pocket. That's where I see a lot of vulnerability for Bivol. He doesn't like to be inside. If Alvarez is going to force him to fight inside the pocket, Bivol is going to have to be strong mentally to keep him outside for 12 rounds, and dominate from there instead of letting Alvarez get his way.
Bivol has to stay disciplined. That's it. Bivol doesn't have to go with the current. Bivol needs to be the current. He needs to dictate the tempo, not fight at the tempo Alvarez wants to fight and make Alvarez react to him instead of him reacting to what his opponent does.
Fighters get in there and react to Alvarez. Canelo plays that game of, 'yeah, you can hit me, go ahead, hit me, hit me, wear yourself out' and by the sixth, seventh round they're gassed out because they put so much pressure on Alvarez, physically and mentally. If you come in there and you say 'I'm gonna fight at my pace, I'm gonna dominate you with my business, I'm not gonna let you be comfortable' and force Alvarez back, Alvarez will be forced to respect you. Bivol has the ability to do that. He's the bigger man, he's been in this weight class for some time, and he has punching power and great counter-punching ability. But he can't let Alvarez just dictate and slow down the pace. That will ultimately result in Alvarez's excessive pressure and punishing body shots.
. This won't be as easy for him as people are saying.
