After game 3 everyone in the media overreacted. Predictable. But let's break this series down. Game one the Spurs get a win they probably shouldn't have gotten. The Heat are leading almost the entire game. Game 2 and 4 they get outclassed. Game 3 was just a bizarre outlier performance where the Heat essentially crawled into a fetal position and died. They embarrassed themselves. They didn't even try. The Spurs hit a Finals record 16 3-pointers. That's not repeatable. That game skewed what's going on here.
When you look at the series in its totality, the fact that it's 2-2 is masking the competitive reality. The Spurs had 14 more free throws, shot 50% from 3 on 16 attempts and got good performances from Duncan and Parker, and got beat up. In game 2 the Spurs shot the same number of free throws as the Heat and hit the same number of 3 pointers as the Heat on the same percentage and got blown out. In game 1 the Spurs had one more FT attempt then the Heat and made 1 fewer 3-pt attempt then we did and had good games from Parker and Duncan, they won by 4 after trailing for most of the game. In other words, the Spurs, with the exception of game 1 have had 3 great performances shooting the 3-ball and at no point during the series has Miami attempted more FTs then the Spurs, in fact the Spurs have had 24 more attempts than the Heat! Yet, they're a 7-minute stretch during the end of game 1 from being down 3-1 in this series.
The Big 3 hadn't played well until tonight. No one else in the national media is going to say it, because the series is tied 2-2, but this might be the most misleading 2-2 I can remember in a Finals for a long time, the Heat are the better team, by far, and if the Heat bring the kind of intensity they did tonight or in game 2 the Spurs simply can't compete with them. The 3 and a glaring FT disparity is keeping the Spurs in this, but they've shot 50% from 3 in 3 straight contests. They're going to need to maintain both the FT disparity and a 50% 3-pt percentage probably for 3 more games to have ANY chance to win this thing. The Spurs must, from pure competitive necessity, must continue to benefit from something that statistically probably can't happen. They're due for a game where they shoot 30% from 3.
^^^ dude makes a great point