Heat unstoppable in the clutch
The Philadelphia 76ers were at home and beating the defending champs by three points with 3:57 left on the clock. The Philadelphia crowd was on its feet, and momentum was on the 76ers' side Wednesday. All they had to do was cling to that three-point lead for less than four minutes and they would snap the Miami Heat's historic 19-game win streak.
The 76ers lost by four.
Another close game, another victory for the Heat.
The win streak stands at 20 games, and six weeks have gone by since we've seen the number in their loss column change. But Wednesday's win over Philadelphia underscores a hallmark of the Heat's remarkable run and their 2012-13 season as a whole:
They have been almost unbeatable in the clutch.
Twelve games have gone into clutch time during the streak, and the Heat have won them all. By clutch time, I'm going by NBA.com's standard: the game's final five minutes and the score is within five points. Every single one of those 12 close games have gone the Heat's way, including Wednesday.
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The Heat, like any team on a long string of wins, have needed a little luck here and there, but when you look deeper into the numbers, you begin to realize that something more substantial is happening with this team. To illustrate, here is the score in 44 minutes of clutch time during the streak, according to NBA.com's stats tool:
Heat 134, Opponents 71.
That's in 44 minutes, not even a full game's worth of time. Think about that. It's one thing to score 134 points -- which is a staggering total in itself -- but the Heat have dominated on the defensive side of the ball as well. If we translate these numbers to a full 48-minute game, we're looking at a win margin of nearly 70 points (68.7 points to be exact). In other words, they would be accused of running up the score.
This isn't just a 20-game fluke either. Sure, a deficit that large inevitably will be boosted by some occasional sprinkles of good fortune, but the Heat have been juggernauts in the clutch all season. Even before the current 20-game win streak, the Heat were 15-6 in games that went into clutch time, a .714 win percentage that would lead the league. (The Spurs are currently in second at .710.) As stunning as it sounds, the Heat have won 27 of the 33 tight games that have gone into clutch time overall.
Have we ever seen clutch dominance like this before? Yes, but it's rare. After adjusting for pace, the Heat have outscored opponents by 32.9 points per 100 possessions in 155 minutes of clutch time. According to NBA.com's database that goes back to 1996-97, that massive point differential ranks second. The most dominant team in clutch time of the past 17 seasons? The 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (plus-39.9). Yup, LeBron James has led the two most dominant clutch teams on record. So much for the notion he can't close games.
Ray Allen
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty ImagesRay Allen and Shane Battier are used with the Big Three specifically for clutch situations.
But why, exactly, have the Heat been so good in crunch time?
Here's the reason the clutch dominance doesn't scream fluke: The Heat are a different team when the game is on the line.
If you've watched the Heat closely this season, you've noticed that Erik Spoelstra has saved his best for last. He tends to go unconventional by surrounding James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh with two shooters: Ray Allen and Shane Battier. Yes, that's the Big Three with Miami's marquee free-agent signing of the past two offseasons.
And that lineup has been gangbusters this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per 100 possessions. But if we look closer, we'll find that Spoelstra saves that lineup almost exclusively for critical moments. Of the 114 minutes that lineup has seen the court, 90 of them have come in the fourth quarter or overtime.
It's basically the basketball equivalent of a closer in baseball. As you might have guessed, it's the Heat's most-used clutch time lineup, outscoring opponents by 45 points in 50 minutes (a terrifying 39.3 points per 100 possessions). By contrast, the Heat's starting lineup with Udonis Haslem and Mario Chalmers hasn't even played a clutch time minute this season.
This is why the Heat might be even better than their 49-14 record suggests. Spoelstra has kept his best lineups on the backburner until he absolutely needs them. Come playoff-time when the stakes are high throughout the game, Spoelstra will likely bust out those devastating closing lineups earlier and more often. And the league, evidently, hasn't found an answer for them yet.
Can the streak continue?
Wins Percentage
To 22*: 45.8
To 23: 27.9
To 33**: 1.2
To 34: 1.0
Win out: 0.4
*Ties modern day record set by 2007-08 Rockets
**Ties all-time record set by 1971-72 Lakers
The Heat will need a healthy dose of clutch magic if they want to keep their streak alive. As of now, there's a 45.8 percent chance -- essentially a coin flip -- that they'll beat the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night and the Toronto Raptors on Sunday night (both road games), according to a win probability metric outlined here. Two more wins would tie the Houston Rockets record of 22 games set in 2007-08, the longest single-season win streak since the NBA/ABA merger.
To break the Rockets' streak? The Heat would have to beat the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on the second night of a back-to-back Monday. The percent chance that happens is just 27.9 percent, or roughly the equivalent of Wade making his next 3-pointer. Not great odds to say the least.
The all-time record of 33 straight wins should be safe as well, despite what some from that 1971-72 Lakers team might say. There's just a 1.2 percent chance that the Heat will build a 13-game win streak on top of what they've already done. But at this point, we wouldn't put anything past them.
bugs was such a cheatin sunnuvabytch...
@homie's face
these nikkas do not give one fukk and i love it 
