What to know about the Heat streak
This could be a while.
With a resounding win over the Indiana Pacers on Sunday, the Heat have now won 18 games in a row, which is the third-longest streak since the NBA/ABA merger. And win No. 19 might be just around the corner. On Tuesday night, the Heat will host the Atlanta Hawks, a team that has lost five of its past six games. If Sunday's romp over a more formidable Pacers squad was any indication, the Heat are likely to go streaking at least once more.
How long will this streak go? Is it the most impressive 18-gamer ever? Who's the MVP of the streak? Let's tackle those questions and more ahead of Tuesday's showdown.
What are the odds?
Houston, you might have a problem. On Thursday, we took a look at the odds that the Heat plow through their remaining schedule and topple the Houston Rockets' modern era record of 22 consecutive wins set in 2007-08. Using a win probability formula that takes into account team and opponent strength as well as the location of the game, the Heat still aren't likely to top Houston's run.
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Why? Because as good as the Heat look now, winning one game in the NBA is hard enough as it is, much less four in a row. Just to match the record, they'd have to beat the Hawks on Tuesday, the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday (back-to-back), the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday and the Toronto Raptors on Sunday -- the latter three are all on the road.
That's why the odds are still fairly low that the Heat continue this march to 22 wins. Right now, there's a one-in-four chance, or 26.3 percent odds, that they prevail in their next four games. Those odds plummet to a one-in-six chance, or 15.9 percent odds, that they break the record of 22 consecutive wins, which would require them to beat the Boston Celtics in TD Garden on Monday, March 18. Feel free to circle that date on the calendar, but make sure it's in pencil.
Is this the most impressive 18-gamer ever?
Pacers, don't feel bad about Sunday; the Heat have victimized good teams throughout the streak. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers all have fallen prey to the Heat attack over the past month.
What makes this streak particularly unlikely is that this isn't a team just taking advantage of a cake schedule. In fact, looking at the self-contained streaks in NBA history that have reached at least 18 games (we're not including the streaks that wrap into the next season in order to compare apples to apples), the Heat have had the toughest strength of schedule since the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks.
Of the nine self-contained win streaks in NBA history, the Heat have the third-toughest strength of schedule. Here's the breakdown, including wins against 50-win teams (or the equivalent win percentage for this season).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
Win streak Team Season W-L SOS 50+W
18 Miami Heat 2012-13 47-14 .480 5
19 Boston Celtics 2008-09 62-20 .468 2
22 Houston Rockets 2007-08 55-27 .477 5
19 Los Angeles Lakers 1999-00 67-15 .469 5
18 Chicago Bulls 1995-96 72-10 .476 3
18 Boston Celtics 1981-82 63-19 .471 2
33 Los Angeles Lakers 1971-72 69-13 .475 8
20 Milwaukee Bucks 1970-71 66-16 .502 1
18 New York Knicks 1969-70 60-22 .495 3
The average win percentage of a Heat opponent during this current streak is .480, which is stronger than the previous six streaks before it. That Bucks team led by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Oscar Robertson had a strength of schedule at .502 over its 20 consecutive wins, making it the toughest long win streak on record. And Miami's strength of schedule only gets tougher on Tuesday night against the Hawks.
Who's the MVP of the streak?
LeBron James, right? Not so fast. While the favorite for the full-season MVP has averaged 27.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 7.4 assists while shooting 60.2 percent from the floor during the streak, that's roughly what his averages have been this season, with exception to an uptick in shooting efficiency.
If you're looking for the guy who has made the difference, you might look at Dwyane Wade, who has taken his game to a whole new level. He has shot 10-for-15 (66.7 percent) in clutch situations (game within five points in final five minutes) over this streak, which is a team best. Additionally, he has posted a 28.7 PER over the past 18 games, a full six points higher than his 22.7 rating before the streak started back on Feb. 3. Wade has a case.
But then you look at this
According to NBA.com/Stats, in 38 minutes of clutch time (game within five points in the final five minutes) during the 18-game win streak, here are James' numbers: 38 points, 14 assists and 14 rebounds on 52.4 percent shooting. All in 38 minutes. That's good for a 48.3 PER in the tiny sample size. OK, maybe LeBron James is the MVP of the Heat's streak after all.
Will the Heat be the most dominant East team ever?
A lot has changed since the Heat started this streak Feb. 3. Believe it or not, the Heat were actually tied with the New York Knicks for the East's No. 1 seed when the streak began. Now? The Heat have a nine-game lead in the standings. Yes, much has changed. This has us wondering: Have we ever seen dominance in the standings quite like this?
The team that immediately comes to mind is the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls juggernaut that went 72-10 during the regular season. That team enjoyed a 12-game lead on the next best team in the East, the Orlando Magic, who actually won an impressive 60 games that season. The 1996 Bulls are not alone. There's also the 2005-06 Detroit Pistons squad that finished 64-18 and 12 games ahead of the second-seeded Miami Heat. We all know how that turned out; the Heat won the Eastern Conference finals over Detroit in six games and rallied for a title, despite getting lapped in the regular season by the Pistons.
All told, the 1996 Bulls and 2006 Pistons are the only East teams to have earned a larger cushion in the standings than this current Heat team. While the 72-win record may be safe with Michael Jordan & Co., the Heat are certainly within striking distance for the biggest lead ever in the East. Nagging knee injuries to Carmelo Anthony and Danny Granger could help Miami's cause.
Who are the Heat's toughest remaining opponents?
You might think that Miami's opponent Tuesday, the Atlanta Hawks, represents the tallest hurdle between now and the potential 22-game clincher Sunday against the Raptors. After all, the Hawks are 34-28 this season. But that's ignoring one key factor: The Heat will be playing in front of their home crowd Tuesday. The next five games after Tuesday will all be on the road.
Looking at win probability, Tuesday's game actually shapes up to be the easiest matchup until they return to Miami against the lowly Detroit Pistons next Friday. If we rank the next six games in order of least likely wins to most likely wins, the Heat's upcoming slate looks like this: at Boston on Monday (60.2 percent), at Milwaukee on Friday (64.7 percent), at Toronto on Sunday (66 percent), at Cleveland next Wednesday (73.2 percent), at Philadelphia on Wednesday (73.3 percent) and home against the Hawks on Tuesday (84.2 percent).
Now, those percentages don't take into account the Heat's rest, so you can probably knock the Heat's chances down a peg for the Boston and Philadelphia games, both of which will be the second game of a back-to-back. But the longest odds on the remaining schedule? That would be the March 31 game in San Antonio; Miami has only a 29.9 percent chance at winning that game, according to this handy metric. They have to win their next 11 games just to get to that point, four of which are against winning teams.
But if you're looking for the most likely scenario from a probability standpoint, the Heat should win their next two games before falling to the Bucks in Milwaukee on Friday. Remember, the new-look Bucks already have beaten the Heat once this season and are 6-2 with J.J. Redikk in uniform. But just ask the Pacers how momentum and previous record matters these days against the Heat.
