With the holidays in the rearview mirror, it's time to count a new set of shopping days. Thursday marks seven weeks until the Feb. 21 NBA trade deadline, and the most interesting name potentially on the market is Sacramento center DeMarcus Cousins. In his Weekend Dime, our Marc Stein reported that the Kings organization remains divided on the Cousins question, with president Geoff Petrie favoring a trade, while ownership prefers to hang on to the talented but troubled big man despite a recent confrontation with coach Keith Smart.
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On Sunday, Kentucky Sports Radio offered a list of potential destinations. Reportedly, Cousins was told that Boston, Charlotte, Dallas and Orlando are the most likely trade partners, with Detroit, Houston and Washington less likely. To evaluate these possibilities, I turned to the long-term projections generated by my SCHOENE Projection System based on similar players at the same age. After coming up with a reasonable trade scenario for each team, I ranked the potential offers based on the expected Wins Above Replacement Player they could offer the Kings over the remainder of this season and the following three.
Pistons
N/A
Along with the Celtics, the Pistons were one of two teams Stein's sources indicated are "highly interested" in dealing for Cousins, but it's hard to find a good fit with Detroit. Presumably, the Pistons aren't willing to move either of their promising young big men, Greg Monroe and rookie Andre Drummond. It's not even clear Detroit would include point guard Brandon Knight, and Knight isn't an ideal option for a Sacramento team that is flush with guards and needs a replacement for Cousins up front. So scratch them off the list.
Bobcats: Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Taylor
(4.6 WARP)
SCHOENE isn't particularly enamored of either second-year big man Biyombo or rookie wing Taylor, both of whom rate below replacement level so far this season for the lowly Bobcats. Since both players are quality defenders, they might offer Sacramento more value than the numbers indicate. Additionally, Charlotte could sweeten its offer by taking on the final two years of John Salmons' contract in exchange for the expiring pact of DeSagana Diop and throwing in one or both of the future first-round picks it has coming from Detroit and Portland. Nonetheless, any deal with the Bobcats is seriously lacking in star power, presuming that Charlotte is unwilling to deal either point guard Kemba Walker or No. 2 overall pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Wizards: Jordan Crawford and Kevin Seraphin
(14.1 WARP)
Given Stein's contention that Petrie is looking to speed up the rebuilding process by adding veterans, Nenê is an interesting option if the Wizards decide to reverse their own premature buildup a year ago. Barring that, any deal with Washington will be built around Seraphin, who was taken 12 picks after Cousins in 2010. After a promising sophomore campaign, Seraphin has quietly regressed badly this season. His minus-1.8 WARP ranks ahead of only Austin Rivers. Seraphin has shot an empty 45.1 percent from the field, struggled on the defensive glass, and the Wizards have been outscored by 15.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. As a result, Seraphin doesn't project to add any value to the Kings. Any upside to this deal comes from Crawford, who has shown development as a playmaker this season yet still might be expendable because of rookie Bradley Beal. Of course, Sacramento already has plenty of high-scoring, inefficient guards, so Crawford would have more appeal elsewhere.
Celtics: Avery Bradley, Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger (18.0 WARP)
The Celtics illustrate the fundamental problem with finding a new home for Cousins. The teams with strong, veteran locker rooms capable of nurturing his development don't tend to have very much young talent to offer. Boston is actually the contender best positioned to make an offer for Cousins, as this deal would offer three intriguing prospects without weakening the Celtics' current rotation. Bradley's defensive presence on the perimeter would be a welcome addition to the Kings, Sullinger is one of the most polished rookies in the league, and in time Melo could help replace Cousins' size in the paint. However, the track record of three-for-one trades in the NBA isn't very good for the teams getting multiple middle-of-the-road players. Making this deal would leave Sacramento with a deep group of role players in desperate need of a centerpiece, the hardest commodity to find -- and possibly the very kind of player the Kings are trading.
Magic: Maurice Harkless and Nikola Vucevic
(18.4 WARP)
Consider this offer an extension of the Dwight Howard trade, especially since the Magic could sweeten it with some of the same picks acquired in exchange for Howard. Both young players have improved their stock in Orlando. Harkless, who won't turn 20 until May, has started at times. He wouldn't help Sacramento for a while, but could eventually be the answer at small forward. Meanwhile, Vucevic has done a fine job in the middle for the Magic, including an incredible 29-rebound effort in Monday's loss to the Miami Heat that was one of the top rebounding performances in the NBA this decade. Vucevic is probably the best replacement for Cousins in the middle that the Kings could reasonably expect to get.
Rockets: Marcus Morris and Greg Smith
(24.0 WARP)
Even after dealing for James Harden, the Rockets could still put together a competitive offer for Cousins thanks to their frontcourt depth. Sacramento could probably take its pick of any two bigs on the Houston roster besides starting center Omer Asik. Statistically, the best duo would be Morris and Smith. In his second season, Morris has blossomed after moving to power forward, stretching the floor from the position by making nearly 40 percent of his 3-point attempts. The Kings could eventually give him another try on the wing if former college teammate Thomas Robinson emerges as a starter at the 4. The undrafted Smith, plucked by the Rockets from the D-League, is locked up for the minimum through 2013-14. He has impressed off the bench this season, using his strength and soft touch around the basket to make up for being undersized. Smith's 65.7 percent 2-point shooting ranks third among regular players, and he's also capable on the glass.
Mavs: Darren Collison, Jae Crowder and Brandan Wright
(35.2 WARP)
The framework of a possible deal with Dallas would include Wright as a replacement for Cousins, a choice between guards Collison and Rodrigue Beaubois and one of the Mavericks' rookie wings (Crowder or Jared Cunningham). On paper, this version comes out best of all trade options, though there's a significant catch: Either Beaubois or Collison would become a restricted free agent this summer, while Wright is unrestricted. So there's no guarantee Sacramento would get anyone besides Crowder for the long term, and both Collison and Wright are likely to command raises on the open market. This deal also isn't a particularly good match for the Kings' needs. Crowder, a favorite of statistical analysts in last June's draft, could help out at small forward if he improves his outside shooting, but Collison essentially duplicates what Sacramento already has at point guard, and Wright isn't the defensive anchor the Kings require in the middle.
No trade
(39.0 WARP)
The best option for Sacramento might still be no trade at all. Though Cousins has taken a step backward after his rapid progress last season, SCHOENE still sees him with major potential. The list of players most similar to Cousins includes underachievers like Antoine Walker and, yes, Derrick Coleman, but also Shawn Kemp, Zach Randolph and even Kevin Garnett. The fact is that players with Cousins' track record at such a young age -- he's actually two months younger than rookie Melo, who has spent the whole year developing in the D-League -- are hard to find. So other than the Mavericks offer, which comes with a major asterisk, the other likely deals would represent barely half the production the Kings could potentially get by keeping Cousins. His trade value has plummeted over the past two months, making this a poor time to trade. Sacramento bought low in drafting Cousins fifth overall and should look for an opportunity to sell high.
i was just thinking this what's that 4 times now ? imagine if we would of did that in the finals
