Overview
They did it. And now the rest of the league is scared.
More than the fact that the Heat won a championship with their three-man core of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh was how they won it. Over the course of three weeks at the end of the playoffs, Miami figured out a lot of the things it had been tripping over for most of the past two years.
Better late than never, right? In particular, the Heat finally figured out the benefits of spacing the floor and allowing James and Wade to have more room to do their thing. Meanwhile, James and Wade figured out that more quick-hitting plays were better than the your-turn, my-turn isos that had plagued them for much of their first two seasons together.
Organizationally, Miami had been committed to a more traditional mindset of playing with two conventional big men, committing to a five-year deal to Joel Anthony and bringing in assorted other veteran deadwood to serve as its rotating center committee. It's instructive to note that these guys hardy played in the postseason after Bosh returned in Game 6 of the Boston series -- Anthony, for instance, played six minutes in the final seven playoff games. From that point forward, using Bosh as a center and Shane Battier as the starting power forward, the Heat were nigh unbeatable.
HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Heat's roster. Player Profiles Insider
Such was the irony of the NBA Finals: The Heat made the young, up-and-coming Thunder look like the dinosaurs, spacing the floor and taking advantage of Oklahoma City's commitment to playing with two traditional big men.
Of course, all of this is much easier when you have the best player in the league at your disposal. And with James having shaken off that giant monkey on his back, things seemingly will only get easier from here.
Yet the Bosh injury also pointed out the frailty of Miami's pursuit. This team still has precious little depth or talent aside from its top three players, and losing just one of them puts this team at a severe disadvantage. Given the injury histories of Bosh and Wade in particular, that's enough to give anyone pause before launching into dynasty talk.
Finances are another concern. Miami already has $87 million committed in 2013-14 salary, the first season the more draconian luxury tax kicks in, and despite what some may think this is not a particularly great market revenue-wise. It's quite possible the Heat will have to shed talent next summer -- amnestying Mike Miller, cutting the non-guaranteed Mario Chalmers, letting Ray Allen walk, etc. -- in order to keep their financial house in order.
But for now, they're back, and looking better than ever.
2011-12 Recap
Wade, James, BoshJoe Murphy/NBAE/Getty ImagesAfter clearing a few hurdles, Miami's season ended with its first championship of the Big Three era.
It's easy to forget now, but Miami's march to the title wasn't exactly preordained. Does the phrase "good job, good effort" ring a bell? The Heat finished just 46-20, five games behind top-seeded Chicago, had to win a road elimination game in Boston, and trailed each of their final three playoff opponents before rallying.
As noted above, Miami's commitment to playing with a traditional center was a big part of the Heat's regular-season strategy before they chucked it late in the playoffs. Anthony and assorted castoffs such as Dexter Pittman, Juwan Howard, Eddy Curry and Ronny Turiaf combined to play over 2,000 minutes -- more minutes than Bosh -- and Pittman even started a playoff game. This strategy proved counteractive on two levels, both producing a suboptimal lineup and committing several roster spots that could have been used on developing younger players.
HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS
W-L: 46-20 (Pythagorean W-L: 49-17)
Offensive Efficiency: 104.3 (6th)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.1 (4th)
Pace Factor: 93.7 (14th)
Highest PER: LeBron James (30.80)
It helps when you have LeBron and Wade, though. And for all its talent, Miami also worked very hard at the defensive end. The Heat finished fourth in defensive efficiency and, unlike some teams, their stars were a huge factor in their success. Their one weakness was defending the 3-point line, which gave them particular trouble early in the season before some adjustments cooled off the opposition. Heat opponents shot 36.3 percent on 3s and took a quarter of their shots from that distance; Miami was 26th in opponent percentage and 27th in opponent frequency.
The tradeoff was that the Heat were third in forcing turnovers, with miscues on 17.6 percent of opponent possessions. This had a nice secondary effect, as turnovers generally led to highlight-reel dunks because of Wade and James' dominance in transition.
Offensively, though it's hard to believe after what happened in the Finals, the Heat were one of the league's least-frequent 3-point shooters. Wade all but abandoned the shot and James didn't take it a lot either, plus the Heat gave a lot of regular-season minutes to role players who couldn't shoot. Only 19.8 percent of their shots were 3s, ranking Miami 22nd in the league.
The Heat were the league's fourth-best team at shooting inside the arc, helped by all the layups from James and Wade, but were plagued by turnovers. Miami had the league's ninth-worst turnover rate, giving it away on 16.1 percent of its trips, and that's far too high for a team with star players who can create their shot so easily.
Again, all of this improved in the postseason, especially after Bosh returned and the Heat opened up the floor. Miami was a close third behind the Spurs and Thunder in both playoff offensive efficiency and playoff true shooting percentage; no other Eastern team was in the top eight in efficiency. More than a quarter of the Heat's playoff attempts were 3s, and their turnover rate dropped to near the league average.
Offseason Moves
Pat Riley, Ray Allen, Erik SpoelstraAP Photo/Lynne SladkyDuring the offseason, Pat Riley and the Heat snatched up Ray Allen from their bitter rivals in Boston.
As I said, they figured it out. And in the offseason, Miami doubled down on its bet. The Heat let all the veteran backup centers go and didn't bother chasing any new ones this time around. Instead, Miami's offseason was all about its newfound, unguardable offensive identity. Check out these moves:
Traded a 2012 first-round pick to Philadelphia for a future first-rounder and the No. 45 pick; drafted Justin Hamilton: This was a heck of a trade. Miami chose to massage its luxury tax hit by using a first-rounder at some point down the road instead of picking 27th this year. The pick from Philly is top-14 protected each of the next three seasons and then turns into second-rounders in 2015 and 2016; most likely, it will be a pick in the late teens in 2013 that will replace the one the Heat owe the Cavs from LeBron's sign-and-trade.
The Heat moved down 18 spots and selected project center Justin Hamilton, who will play in Europe this season. Apparently Miami's lovefest with players of this ilk couldn't be completely cured in one go, but last season's playoffs came pretty close to extinguishing the malaise.
Signed Ray Allen for two years, $6.3 million: You want shooting? We've got your shooting right here. The Heat landed arguably the best shooter on the planet by using their taxpayer midlevel exception on Allen, and while it's possible he'll be around for only a year (he has a player option after this season), it should be one heck of a fun year. Or not, if you're an opposing defense: Would you like to stop LeBron's drive and leave Allen open for a corner 3, or concede the dunk?
This also speaks to one huge advantage the Heat will have going forward -- any veteran shooter looking for a ring is going to seriously consider coming to Miami at a discount. Allen could have taken a lot more money with other teams (like his previous one, for instance) but found a season of shooting wide-open 3s and lazing by the pool more palatable.
Signed Rashard Lewis for two years, veteran minimum: I wasn't crazy about this move simply because I'm not sure Lewis has anything left in the tank, but again you see the idea: Shootingshootingshootingshootingshooting. Lewis can play as a floor-spacing 4 much like he did in Orlando, except now he'll be shooting the shorter corner 3 instead of from the elbows and top of the key like he did with the Magic.
As with Allen, Lewis has a player option on this deal, so if he plays well (or if LeBron and Wade make it seem that way), he's likely to walk after one season.
Signed Josh Harrellson for one year, minimum: A nice pickup by the Heat after the Rockets waived him, Harrellson signed a non-guaranteed deal but is almost certain to make the roster as a rare floor-spacing center. The Heat could potentially use him as the backup 5 and keep Anthony out of the rotation entirely, relying on Harrellson and Bosh to provide a constant floor-spacing presence. The nice thing about Harrellson is he can rebound too, although his lack of mobility on defense may be problematic.
2012-13 Outlook
Dwyane Wade, Rashard Lewis, Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Ray AllenIssac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty ImagesWith more shooting to surround the Big Three, Miami is looking formidable for another NBA title run.
Watch out, world. I hesitate to call any team an "overwhelming favorite," because there are just too many things that can go sideways in an 82-game season. In a 30-team league the odds of any single team winning a title will almost always be lower than that of the field.
But if I were to drum up a scenario where I'd favor a single team over the field, this might be it. The Heat have the best player, and the best team, and they've figured out how to make it work, and all those things are important. But an even better reason to like Miami is the general state of the Eastern Conference.
I have Miami projected to finish a dozen games ahead of the next-closest team, and if the Heat are healthy in the playoffs it's hard to imagine any Eastern club giving them much of a fight. Even last season, the two times Boston played Miami with Bosh in the playoffs, the Celtics lost by 19 and 13; also, their best shooter last season now plays for the Heat.
As a result, the Heat have, by far, the best odds of any team of appearing in the NBA Finals. And you can't win the title until you get to the final round. Moreover, the playoffs tend to magnify most of Miami's advantages -- mainly, its top-heavy roster is a greater strength in the postseason because the starters play additional minutes.
Finally, having such a stress-free stroll through the regular season should allow Miami to have everyone relatively fresh for the playoffs. I'm sure there will be a hiccup or two along the way -- the point guard spot still looks iffy, with Chalmers as erratic as ever and Norris Cole a huge disappointment as a rookie, and it's not clear how much Mike Miller's worn-out body can give them -- but if the Heat's three stars make it to June healthy, they have a great chance at a repeat.
Prediction: 64-18, 1st in Southeast Division, 1st in Eastern Conference
doe brehs. 
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