As good as it sounds.. It still makes no sense. They sat with Butchie and they gave up Phil. They had a truce.. Who else could put a hit on Tony? Carmine? DEAD! Johnny Sac? DEAD! Phil? DEAD! So who put the hit on Tony?-The scene with sil and the NY guy at the restaurant, sil doesnt even realize whats going on until dude has already been shot like 3 times
-Bobby and tony at the lake talkin bout "you probably dont even see it coming when it happens"
- phil getting popped while saying goodbye to his grandkids, never sees it coming
That master of sopranos essay explains it more indepth,