THE PIVOT TO AFRICA 🌍 THREAD

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Kamala Harris, Antony Blinken Head to Africa in a Bid to Counter China
U.S. officials want to show Washington could be ally in economic development, conflict resolution

By William MauldinFollow
in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and Nicholas BariyoFollow
in Kampala, Uganda
March 14, 2023 at 10:01 am ET

The U.S. is seeking to grow more involved in African countries facing conflict, debt and hunger, boosting its presence in an effort to counter diplomatic inroads from China and Russia.

U.S. officials want to show that Washington isn’t only a donor for Africa’s humanitarian needs but also a resource in countering terrorism and insurgency and a potential source of investment and other economic support. As the U.S. confronts Russia and China, Biden administration officials are visiting regions where the great powers are competing—Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa.

Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia later this month, the White House said Monday. In January, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited three countries in Africa, and pledged further U.S. investment and trade. The visits are efforts to follow up on commitments the U.S. made in a summit of African leaders in Washington last year.

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Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, appears to be emerging from a bloody conflict and is grappling with ethnic tensions, debt and hunger. In addition to war and a record regional drought, Washington has blamed food shortages on Russia’s war against Ukraine and partial blockade of Black Sea ports.


A militia member in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which fought the government in Addis Ababa until a cease-fire struck last year.Photo: Eduardo Soteras/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
In the semidesert strip south of the Sahara known as the Sahel, the U.S. and its allies are counting on Niger to help stop the latest spread of al Qaeda and Islamic State. Mr. Blinken’s visit there will be the first by a U.S. secretary of state.

“African leaders naturally want to partner with the U.S., but we don’t spend enough time meeting with them and asking them how they can help,” said Mark Green, former U.S. ambassador to Tanzania and the president of the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “China and Russia are more nimble and more responsive to requests in Africa for assistance.”

The conflict in Ukraine strained grain and cooking-oil shipments to Africa last year. Closer to home, climate change and sectarian and ethnic conflict have also affected food supply in some countries.

“Conflict resolution holds the key to the future of Ethiopia, and in Niger as well,” said Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, head of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “All these conflicts are typically an expression of the failure of the social contract in one form or another.”

Mr. Blinken is set to arrive in Ethiopia’s capital Tuesday to meet with the country’s leadership, including an expected discussion with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and officials from the Tigray region, which fought the government in Addis Ababa in a bloody conflict until a cease-fire was struck last year.

Mr. Blinken will also meet Moussa Faki Mahamat, chairman of the African Union Commission, which helped broker the Ethiopian cease-fire.


Moussa Faki Mahamat, chairman of the African Union Commission, is expected to meet with Antony Blinken. Photo: amanuel sileshi/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Ethiopia has long supported U.S. efforts to tackle security challenges in East Africa, most prominently by contributing thousands of troops to an African Union mission fighting the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab terror group in Somalia. The U.S. has been a major provider of humanitarian aid to Ethiopia, including to combat the effects of a record drought that has left millions of Ethiopians in need of food aid.

Yet the two-year war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has upset that relationship. Mr. Blinken and other U.S. officials accused fighters allied with the Ethiopian government of committing atrocities, including ethnic cleansing, in their war against rebels from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Last year, the Biden administration suspended preferential access of Ethiopian goods to the U.S. market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, dealing a major blow to the country’s textile industry.

The government of Mr. Ahmed said Washington was unfairly siding with the TPLF, which the government said was trying to regain its dominance of Ethiopian politics that preceded Mr. Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018. The Ethiopian government has denied supporting atrocities, but says it is investigating alleged abuses, including by government-allied fighters from neighboring Eritrea.

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An African Union envoy estimated last month that as many as 600,000 people died in the war, including from starvation and lack of medical services, until the government and the TPLF signed a truce in November.

Since then, banking and telecommunications services have resumed across most of Tigray, and the TPLF has surrendered most of its heavy weaponry to the federal army. But only around 16% of the 5.4 million Tigrayans who need food aid had received assistance by February, according to the United Nations. The Ethiopian health ministry estimates that it needs some $1.4 billion just to rebuild damaged health facilities in Tigray.

Ethiopia is a hub for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a gargantuan overseas infrastructure push, with 400 Chinese construction and manufacturing projects valued at more than $4 billion, according to the U.S. Institute for Peace.

Ethiopia and other African countries eager for investment are less interested in taking sides in geopolitical power struggles and instead would rather form longer-term partnerships that convey economic benefits, analysts said.

“You don’t need to tell the Africans that China is here, that Turkey is here, that the Gulf Arab countries are here,” Mr. Dizolele said. “If the U.S. wants to work on competition, that’s fine, but competition shouldn’t be the mantra that the United States is telling Africans everywhere it goes.”

Write to Nicholas Bariyo at nicholas.bariyo@wsj.com
 

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Russia is trying to overthrow the government in Chad







U.S. Intelligence Points to Wagner Plot Against Key Western Ally in Africa - WSJ​

Benoit FauconFeb. 23, 2023 at 7:58 am ET
im-729951




“Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin is actively planning to destabilize the Chadian transition government and offered Chadian rebels material and operational support to execute a plot, which may include plans to eliminate Chadian Transition President Mahamat Idriss Déby, in order to seize control of the government of Chad,” said a senior U.S. official.

A senior African official said that Chad had been informed about the U.S. intelligence on a Wagner-supported threat to its government, Mr. Déby and other senior Chadian officials. Chad “takes that threat very seriously,” said the African official. “It’s like the sword of Damocles.”

Current and former European security officials also confirmed the U.S. had shared intelligence with Chadian officials about a suspected plot supported by Mr. Prigozhin and that the information was considered credible. Aziz Mahamat Saleh, Chad’s minister of information, didn’t return requests for comment on the U.S. intelligence.

Mr. Prigozhin said questions sent to him by The Wall Street Journal about the U.S. intelligence were baseless and declined to address them.

The Biden administration and European governments have been pushing leaders in Africa to stop working with Wagner.

im-729949
The U.S. has shared intelligence with Chadian officials about a suspected plot supported by Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin, current and former European officials said.Photo: sergei ilnitsky/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
The U.S. Treasury Department last month designated the group as a transnational criminal organization over its actions in combat operations in Ukraine on behalf of Russia.

The Treasury said Wagner personnel also are involved in alleged criminal activity, including mass executions, rape and physical abuse in the Central African Republic and Mali, echoing accusations made by human-rights groups and locals.

Mr. Prigozhin declined to comment on the allegations. He had previously denied that Russian fighters were involved in massacres and other abuses in Africa and elsewhere.

Supporting a plot against a sitting president would add a new page to Wagner’s known playbook in Africa, where the group has signed military and security assistance contracts with governments and a Libyan faction.

Companies run by Mr. Prigozhin have also been given licenses to mine gold, including in Sudan and the Central African Republic, handing him access to precious resources at a time Wagner Group mercenaries are a central force in Russia’s war in Ukraine.


In addition to oil, Chad has large, although mostly unexplored, mineral resources, including gold.

Mr. Déby became Chad’s president in April 2021 after his father, Idriss Déby, was killed in battle by a Chadian rebel group that had also been stationed alongside Wagner mercenaries in Libya.




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part 2:



im-729961
Russian mercenaries, right, in northern Mali, in a photo provided by the French military.Photo: French Army/Associated Press
A spokesman for the rebel group, the Front pour l’Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad, or FACT, said at the time that while the group had been stationed in the same base as Wagner in Libya, it hadn’t been trained, armed or directed by Wagner.

Chad, under Mr. Déby and his father, has worked closely with France and the U.S. in the war against Islamic State and al Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel region. The majority-Muslim country hosts U.S. Special Forces and drones, and its own soldiers have been deployed to fight jihadist groups in neighboring Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger, where other local militaries have struggled.

Within Chad, however, there have been protests against Mr. Déby’s ascent to power after his father’s death, which didn’t follow the line of succession outlined in the constitution and extended his family’s more than three-decade-long rule of the country, one of the world’s poorest. Some of those protests have also targeted France, accusing the government of President Emmanuel Macron, who attended the elder Mr. Déby’s funeral, of prioritizing its influence in the region over human rights and democracy.

The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chad’s Information Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment.

France has previously urged Chadian authorities to hold elections and criticized the government for the deadly repression of protests that followed an October announcement by Chad’s ruling junta that elections would be delayed for two more years. The junta said the delay was agreed to as part of a national dialogue with opposition parties, although not all opposition parties were included in those talks.

The current threats to Mr. Déby’s government, which has been criticized by the West for putting off democratic elections, come from alliances between Chadian rebels and Wagner, including in Libya and the Central African Republic, according to the U.S. and African officials.

In a recording circulated on social media in February 2022, Timan Erdimi, the leader of Chadian rebel group Union des Forces Républicaines, asked Abdoulkassim Algoni Tidjani, then a special adviser to the president of the Central African Republic, President Faustin Archange Touadera, to convince “Russians” to come to Chad to “drive out Mahamat (Déby) and France,” a U.N. sanctions panel on the Central African Republic said last year.

How Wagner Group Is Using Pop Culture to Recruit New Russian Fighters
How Wagner Group Is Using Pop Culture to Recruit New Russian Fighters

How Wagner Group Is Using Pop Culture to Recruit New Russian Fighters
From action movies to techno music clips, videos on Russian social media urge young men to join the Wagner mercenary group to fight in Ukraine. The pop culture push is even more important as Wagner’s losses mount on the battlefield. Illustration: RIA FAN/Aurum Production/Cyber FrontZ
The Central African Republic’s government and a Wagner representative in the country denied at the time that they planned to destabilize Chad.

But the American and African officials interviewed for this article said the current U.S. intelligence relied on new, separate evidence of joint plans by Wagner and Chadian rebels to destabilize the country.

“When you combine [the killing of Mr. Déby’s father] with what we are seeing today, a pretty clear picture of a concerted, persistent Prigozhin/Wagner plan to destabilize the transitional government of Chad emerges,” the senior U.S. official said.

The FACT rebel group that killed the former president until recently had 700 fighters stationed in Jufra, a military base in southern Libya where Wagner is also present, according to United Nations reports on sanctions in Libya. The facility is controlled by Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar. In recent months, the Chadians have relocated further south, according to a North African official familiar with their movements.

Mr. Haftar worked both with Wagner and the Chadian FACT rebels to try to oust Libya’s internationally recognized government before backing a unified Libyan government as part of a 2021 peace deal. He continues to control large parts of eastern Libya and Wagner mercenaries remain in the country, U.N., Libyan and American officials say.





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