Who you think is going to win those categories?
Its between Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift or Beyonce. I think this will be the ceremony where Beyonce wins AOTY. The fact she got ELEVEN nominations across like 4 different genres indicates she’s got a wide range of support but if she wins AOTY then one of the white women will definitely take home SOTY and ROTY. There’s less passion for Swift this go round but I really can’t see a world where she’s actually shut out of the general field but if she is then Eilish would be the one to usurp her as she’s an industry darling.
We could see a rare three-way split where different artists take home AOTY (Beyonce) SOTY (Eilish) and ROTY (Swift) or vote splitting between Swift & Eilish could lead to somebody like Sabrina Carpenter taking home both Song and Record. Its a little too early to tell but what I do know is for Kendrick to win he’d have to get a rather large chunk of Pop and other genre voters to throw their weight behind him and I just don’t see it with Not Like Us. He’ll have the rap and r&b voters in the bag but voters for lets say Jazz, Classical, Country, Rock, etc all get votes for the general category and i’m not sure everyone outside of rap is ready to say essentially “Drake is a pedophile”.
Remember Kendrick has been nominated in these categories before with much stronger songs that had much more uplifting messages (Alright, The Heart Part 5) or much more palatable messages ( Humble) and never won. Matter of fact the ONLY Rap song to ever win SOTY and ROTY is Childish Gambino’s This Is America. Rap has a terrible track record in the general field.
Not Like Us will sweep the two rap categories guaranteed. The culture knows what that song stands for as both a complete sonning and as the most impactful rap song of probably the last 5 years. I’d say it also has a very good chance of taking home Best Music Video but the road to General Field wins is a bit too steep.