The method
FIFA has announced how many places each confederation is guaranteed, with Asia, Africa, and North America the big winners.
Eight Asian teams will receive spots (they currently have guaranteed four places), nine African teams (up from five), and six North American teams (up from three guaranteed places).
Those confederations will receive chances to progress through the play-offs, still slated to be the pathway for two teams in 2026.
Europe will receive three more places, bringing them to a total of 16, South America will go up from four to six and Oceania will receive a guaranteed seat at the table for the first time in tournament history. The latter two will each have a team in the play-offs.
Working out a 48-team World Cup is simple. Go through the qualifying process, and calculate which teams would qualify based on the new quotas (with a little help from world rankings).
Right?
Europe (UEFA)
Ten European teams have qualified for the World Cup by winning their groups: Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Holland, Serbia, Spain and Switzerland.
With six spaces left to fill, it makes sense to choose the six best losers. These would be North Macedonia, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Scotland, and Turkey.
However, with Russia suspended from international competition by FIFA following the nation’s invasion of Ukraine, their place will be taken by the next best loser — meaning reigning European champions Italy scrape in.
North Macedonia are the only tournament debutants, although Scotland make their first appearance at a World Cup since 1998.
Under present plans, UEFA will not be given a play-off spot.
South America (CONMEBOL)
South American qualifying’s round-robin format means that calculating the participants is simply a case of siphoning off the top six rather than top four.
This year, that is Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Uruguay, Peru, and Colombia.
Chile, who finished seventh, will enter the play-offs.
North America (CONCACAF)
One of the major beneficiaries of the expansion, six teams will qualify automatically from the octagonal.
There will be no danger of the United States missing out this time. They will be joined by Canada, Mexico, Panama, Costa Rica, and El Salvador (featuring for the first time since 1982).
Seventh-place Jamaica have been on a recruiting mission of British-born talent of late, convincing players such as Michail Antonio, Ravel Morrison, Andre Gray, and Ethan Pinnock to play for them. They will receive a chance in the repechage.
Africa (CAF)
A frustratingly odd-numbered nine African teams will be guaranteed a place.
That creates a small calculation problem, with 10 sides having won their group in the second stage of qualifying.
World rankings seem to be the fairest way to decide, which means that Morocco, Mali, Tunisia, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and Egypt will qualify.
Mali will reach their first tournament but DR Congo are consigned to the play-offs.
Asia (AFC)
This is a complicated one. Qatar qualify automatically as hosts, to be joined by seven more Asian teams. As the host confederation, the AFC will receive two play-off slots.
The final stage of Asian qualifying is split into two groups of six, which means the top three will reach the finals. A 48-team format would then see the fourth-place finishers play-off for the final guaranteed space, with the loser entering the inter-confederation play-offs alongside the best fifth-place finisher — in this case, Iraq.
Iran, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia qualify by finishing in the top three. Oman and Lebanon will play for the final space, with Oman making their World Cup debut due to their 16-place world ranking advantage over Lebanon.
Lebanon and Iraq will enter the inter-confederation play-offs.
Oceania (OFC)
Expansion means that Oceania will receive their first guaranteed place at a World Cup. This is good news for New Zealand, who won their confederation’s qualifying in 2014 and 2018 but lost in the play-offs, first to Mexico then to Peru four years later.
They will take the automatic place, with the Solomon Islands entering the play-offs as continental runners-up.
The play-offs
Six teams, two places. Based on world rankings, the two top seeded teams will receive a bye to the play-off semi-finals.
The participants are Chile (26th in the world rankings), Jamaica (62nd), DR Congo (66th), Iraq (74th), Lebanon (95th), and the Solomon Islands (142nd).
Assuming that results go according to ranking, Chile and Jamaica will take the final two slots of the 48. It will be the Reggae Boyz’s first appearance since 1998.
The draw
The line-up is complete. Despite Infantino’s desire to open up the World Cup to the masses, there will only be three tournament debutants (North Macedonia, Mali and Oman).
To see how this might look in a tournament, The Athletic held a draw based on world ranking. The 16 pools are:
GROUP A QATAR (H), EGYPT, JAMAICA
Group B
Portugal, Peru, Algeria
Group C
Italy, Iran, Panama
Group D
USA, Uruguay, UAE
Group E
Croatia, Nigeria, El Salvador
Group F
Germany, Tunisia, Mali
Group G
Brazil, Canada, Ghana
Group H
Switzerland, Senegal, Costa Rica
Group I
Spain, Serbia, North Macedonia
Group J
Argentina, Poland, Cameroon
Group K
England, Japan, New Zealand
Group L
Denmark, Chile, Ecuador
Group M
Mexico, South Korea, Oman
Group N
Belgium, Colombia, Saudi Arabia
Group O
Netherlands, Australia, Scotland
Group P
France, Morocco, Turkey
Group B
Portugal, Peru, Algeria
Group C
Italy, Iran, Panama
Group D
USA, Uruguay, UAE
Group E
Croatia, Nigeria, El Salvador
Group F
Germany, Tunisia, Mali
Group G
Brazil, Canada, Ghana
Group H
Switzerland, Senegal, Costa Rica
Group I
Spain, Serbia, North Macedonia
Group J
Argentina, Poland, Cameroon
Group K
England, Japan, New Zealand
Group L
Denmark, Chile, Ecuador
Group M
Mexico, South Korea, Oman
Group N
Belgium, Colombia, Saudi Arabia
Group O
Netherlands, Australia, Scotland
Group P
France, Morocco, Turkey
What are the initial impressions, aside from the patent absurdity of a “Group P”?
Well, if a 48-team tournament has brought one thing, it has offered the enjoyment of the USA, Uruguay and the UAE being drawn in the same pool.
England vs Japan would be a fun, competitive group stage match. Scotland and Australia’s Lyndon Dykes-derby of Group O may be worth watching. But that is about it.
In Qatar’s Group A, no team is ranked above 34th in the world.
For others, such as L and M, an optimist would describe them as well-matched. A cynic would call them weak.
Most gallingly, the era of a “group of death” is over. There would be clear jeopardy if only one team from each pool qualified for the next stage. But FIFA wants two teams to progress, finding value in the extra knockout round.
It does not take a master tracker to detect a strong scent of pre-qualifying.
Like the dodo, Pinta Island tortoise and Tasmanian tiger, the 32-team World Cup is dead and gone. The move to 48 does not resemble evolution.
or if they were to only choose one
