I don't think any team MSU has played has a winning record...IMO scUM's win in Lincoln; however sloppy it was, is more impressive than MSU's home shytshow win against that same UNL team. MSU won on the road against Miami only looks impressive that week while Miami was ranked, looking back it's an obvious game that any solid team should win. We gave up 21 points to Northwestern, at least scUM held them to 7.
IMHO neither MSU nor UM are as good as their ranking indicates. MSU's defense is super suspect and UM's offense isn't all that impressive.
MSU's been off for two weeks and I fully expect early game mistakes due to a lull in the momentum that was built up. I expect some early penalties and mistakes that hopefully don't lead to scoring opportunities for the opposition. If harbaugh is smart, he takes advantage of this on their first couple possessions by going vertical and throwing on first down to catch some easy PI's, Holding calls, etc.
I think this comes down to TO's, dumb penalties, and probably a field goal or less will win the game. I say 20-17 good guys but it could easily go their way too, especially if we are giving up 4.5 yards a carry to two great RB's that can rotate in and avoid fatigue.