Stewart Mandel’s early Top 25 for the 2020 college football season
In the past, I would warn people not to take these “way-too-early” rankings too seriously. But … um, eight of the top nine teams in this same column a year agodid in fact finish the 2019 season ranked in the top nine. (Thanks a lot, Texas, for preventing the clean sweep.)
Maybe that’s a sign that college football has become too predictable. Or maybe I’m a genius. Either way, here’s my first crack at nailing it in 2020.
1. Clemson (14-1 in 2019)
Cheers to another year of Trevor Lawrence. Ditto star WR Justyn Ross. RB Travis Etienne and WR Tee Higgins may turn pro, but Lyn-J Dixon, Amari Rodgers and Joseph Ngata are proven playmakers. Clemson will have to replace All-American LB Isaiah Simmons, four offensive line starters and likely most of its secondary, but the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class will help with reloading.
2. Ohio State (13-1)
QB Justin Fields is back for another Playoff run, as are top WR Chris Olave and three key O-lineman. Second-year RB Master Teague is ready to follow in J.K. Dobbins’ footsteps. The Buckeyes’ defense loses stars Chase Young, Davon Hamilton and Jeffrey Okudah, but D-linemen Tyreke Smith and Zach Harrison will lead the charge up front, with CBs Shaun Wade and Cam Brown back to lead the secondary.
3. Alabama (11-2)
Whether incumbent Mac Jones or five-star freshman Bryce Young winds up the QB, he’ll be throwing to stud WRs DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, with Brian Robinson Jr., touted redshirt freshman Trey Sanders and possibly starter Najee Harris returning in the backfield. All-American LB Dylan Moses’ return from injury will help boost a defense that struggled in 2019. The Tide could return as many as eight other defensive starters.
4. Georgia (12-2)
The offense is in flux, but the defense will be loaded yet again, led by LB Monty Rice, pass rusher Azeez Ojulari and S Richard LeCounte. QB Jake Fromm is off to the NFL, but the Dawgs already have his replacement: Wake Forest grad transfer Jamie Newman. Four starting O-linemen left, but Georgia has recruited well at those positions. And the Bulldogs still have RBs Zamir White and James Cook.
5. LSU (15-0)
LSU is not just losing Heisman winner Joe Burrow (junior Myles Brennan is his likely successor.) As many as nine juniors could turn pro, most notably S Grant Delpit, WR Justin Jefferson and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Stars WR Ja’Marr Chase, CB Derek Stingley Jr. and DT Tyler Shelvin return. A bunch of younger defenders like LB Damone Clark and CB Cordale Flott are poised to break out.
Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase returns to LSU next year. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
6. Penn State (11-2)
Former Minnesota OC Kirk Ciarrocca was a great hire by James Franklin. All four running backs who combined for nearly 400 yards in the Cotton Bowl are expected to return, along with QB Sean Clifford, standout TE Pat Freiermuth and four O-line starters. Penn State will have a few holes to fill on defense, but LB Micah Parsons will be an All-America candidate.
7. Florida (11-2)
QB Kyle Trask returns and will lean on standout TE Kyle Pitts. Rising sophomore WR Jacob Copeland could be a breakout candidate. Former five-star and Miami transfer RB Lorenzo Lingard becomes a top candidate to replace Lamical Perine. Returning CBs Marco Wilson and Kaiir Elam lead another potentially stout defense, with Georgia transfer Brenton Cox joining pass rushers Mohamoud Diabate and Zachary Carter.
8. Oregon (12-2)
The Rose Bowl champs will be solid at nearly every position, but they need to replace QB Justin Herbert, possibly with a grad transfer. All-American T Penei Sewell returns, but the rest of the O-line will be new starters. The defense should be loaded. Four key juniors announced their returns Monday, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is a future first-rounder and S Brady Breeze headlines a deep secondary.
9. Oklahoma (12-2)
Redshirt freshman QB Spencer Rattler is likely next in line for Lincoln Riley. No more CeeDee Lamb, but the Sooners still have Charleston Rambo and stud RB Kennedy Brooks, and highly regarded C Creed Humphrey headlines the O-line. The defense remains a question, especially with All-American LB Kenneth Murray gone, but DT Jalen Redmond and LB Nik Bonitto look like future stars.
10. Notre Dame (11-2)
QB Ian Book returns, as will the Irish’s entire offensive line. They’ll have to develop a new set of pass-catchers, though sophomore Kevin Austin, who was suspended last season, is a breakout candidate. Five-star freshman RB Chris Tyree could contribute immediately. Star LB/S Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Drew White lead a strong front seven, and freshman S Kyle Hamilton is a budding star.
11. Wisconsin (10-4)
QB Jack Coan was quietly a top 20-rated passer this season, and you know Wisconsin will have a strong running game even without Jonathan Taylor — Nakia Watson may head a committee — but all-purpose speedster Aron Cruickshank is in the transfer portal. The Badgers will miss top pass rushers Zack Baun and Chris Orr (24 combined sacks), but they return every other defensive starter, plus injured S Scott Nelson.
12. Auburn (9-4)
The Tigers’ prospects will hinge on QB Bo Nix progressing under the direction of new OC Chad Morris. They won’t be lacking for playmakers with WRs Seth Williams, Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove, and five-star RB Tank Bigsby should upgrade the backfield. Auburn has to replace some big names on defense (mainly DT Derrick Brown) but still has LBs K.J. Britt and Zakoby McClain and S Christian Tutt.
13. Iowa (10-3)
Replacing QB Nate Stanley will be tough, but Iowa returns every key running back and receiver, most notably Holiday Bowl MVP Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and highly regarded LT Alaric Jackson opted to put off the NFL. The Hawkeyes will certainly miss star DE A.J. Epenesa, but the defense led by DE Chauncey Golston should still be strong. Groza Award finalist Keith Duncan returns as well
14. USC (8-5)
The Trojans should contend for the Pac-12 title. Standout freshman QB Kedon Slovis gets back WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London and adds five-star Bru McCoy (a redshirt) and four-star Gary Bryant Jr. All the running backs return. Whoever Clay Helton hires to revamp USC’s disappointing defense inherits promising talent like DE Drake Jackson, LB Palaie Gaoteote and S Talanoa Hufanga.
15. Oklahoma State (8-5)
National rushing leader Chuba Hubbard (2,094 yards) announced Monday he’s returning. QB Spencer Sanders also gets back his entire receiving corps, including 2018 Biletnikoff finalist Tylan Wallace, who missed the second half of 2019. LB Amen Ogbongbemiga emerged as a force coordinator in Jim Knowles’ improving defense, and standout Calvin Bundage will be back from injury.
16. Minnesota (11-2)
P.J. Fleck made an interesting OC hire in much-traveled Mike Sanford Jr., who spent last season at Utah State. He inherits a lot of key pieces in QB Tanner Morgan, electric WR Rashod Bateman, breakout RB Mohamed Ibrahim and the whole O-line. Minnesota will be more challenged on defense to replace eight starters, most notably DB Antoine Winfield Jr. DE Esezi Otomewo and others will have to step up.
17. Texas (8-5)
Yes, Texas will be back — at least in the Top 25. QB Sam Ehlinger returns for his fourth season as starter, now under the direction of former Ohio State pass game coordinator Mike Yurcich. Five-stars Jordan Whittington and Bijan Robinson should inject life into the ’Horns’ rushing attack. New DC Chris Ash will build around star pass rusher Joseph Ossai and S Caden Sterns, after the latter was limited by injury last season.
18. Cincinnati (11-3)
The Bearcats have quietly posted back-to-back 11-win seasons under coach Luke Fickell. QB Desmond Ridder returns but without standout RB Mike Warren. Michigan transfer James Hudson, who debuted in the bowl game, upgrades the O-line. The D-line and secondary should remain mostly intact, plus S James Wiggins, one of the standouts of UC’s 2018 defense, returns from a torn ACL.
19. Tennessee (8-5)
The Vols ended the season on a six-game winning streak, with their young defense finishing in the top 25 nationally in yards per play. The entire D-line, freshman LB Henry To’o To’o and CB Bryce Thompson lead a host of returning starters. We’ll see if the never-ending QB derby between Jarrett Guarantano and Brian Maurer finally resolves itself. The offensive line could improve considerably with G Trey Smith returning.
20. Michigan (9-4)
The Shea Patterson era ends and the Dylan McCaffrey (or perhaps Joe Milton?) era begins. The Wolverines bring back top WRs Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins and RB tandem Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins, but they must replace four O-line starters. Redshirt freshman LB Cameron McGrone and sophomore DE Aidan Hutchinson could become the faces of Jim Harbaugh’s perennial top-10 defense.
21. Memphis (12-2)
Newly promoted head coach Ryan Silverfield will try to keep the Tigers atop the AAC behind veteran QB Brady White, star WR Damonte Coxie and dynamo Kenneth Gainwell, who racked up 2,069 yards from scrimmage as a freshman. All-AAC kicker Riley Patterson returns, too. New DC Mike MacIntyre faces a challenge replacing several key players from an already average unit.
22. Texas A&M (8-5)
The Aggies fared poorly in the wins-loss column against a murderous 2019 schedule but ranked near the top 20 in ESPN’s SP+. QB Kellen Mond returns for a fourth season, and RB Isaiah Spiller ran for nearly 1,000 yards as a freshman, but A&M needs to shore up the offensive line. DC Mike Elko’s unit could make a big jump behind young talent like DL DeMarvin Leal, S Demani Richardson and freshman CB Jaylon Jones.
23. North Carolina (7-6)
UNC improved by five wins in Mack Brown’s first season, and all six of its losses were by one score. QB Sam Howell, who finished his freshman season as a top-10 passer nationally, could be one of 10 returning starters on offense after top WR Dazz Newsome put off the NFL. The Heels were middle-of-the-pack defensively in the ACC but got a big boost when standout LB Chazz Surratt announced his return.
24. Arizona State (8-5)
New OC Zak Hill from Boise State gets to work with breakout freshman QB Jayden Daniels, but replacing standout RB Eno Benjamin will be tough. ASU also needs to upgrade its offensive line. But the Sun Devils could field a deep, experienced defense under new coordinator Tony White, led by DE Jermayne Lole, LB Darien Butler, S Aashari Crosswell and CB Jack Jones.
25. Cal (8-5)
The Bears were 7-1 when QB Chase Garbers was healthy, lifting a previously woeful offense that could return nearly every starter — most notably RB Chris Brown and top WR Nikko Remigio. Cal’s stout defense will endure considerable losses, including all-everything LB Evan Weaver. But Justin Wilcox can still count on several veterans, and freshman DT Brett Johnson is a budding talent.
Just missed: Boise State, Iowa State, Washington, Baylor and UCF