Before this year? We're the #5 team in the country and we might be underdogs(currently -1) against the #22 team. I don't care how good that #22 team is, what #5 team gets disrespected like that? It's not because of the players on the field I can tell you that much.
I mean its late money coming in pushing that to -1 whereever you're seeing that, it was 3.5 to 2.5 just late yesterday, but if you look at that matchup as an actual matchup and not just numbers, what spread would you put on that?
1. shouldnt be more than a touchdown: LSU's OL is down in the dumps at this point health wise and UF's defense is looking like the ones of old. At that point, the matchup to watch is a Mullen offense vs a LSU defense that has shown flashes of weaknesses...
2. HFA gives you 3 points
3. its Ed Orgeron vs Dan Mullen
those factors should lead to a push if anything, Id be thankful for being a favorite here tbh. Here's an example of money sometimes doesnt factor anything and how it should:
1. 2016 LSU vs UW, a 10 win UW team that was better than LSU the prior year didnt have a number by their name, and they came into this matchup AT HOME as a THIRTEEN point underdog. IDK why LSU was #5 but thats literally the only reason I can think for why money blew this matchup out of proportion. And those fellas got burnt
2. 2016 LSU vs AU, LSU was #18 while Auburn was unranked coming off two of their worst P5 offensive showings under the regime. Even though they were in JHS, just shooting off rankings would've likely made this a 6-7 pt spread for LSU, but it ended up only being 3.5. people factored in their (deservingly) timid trust in LSU and the HFA. Those factors were well justified based on the end result