McShay's 2017 NFL draft buzz: Everything I'm hearing
With the 2017 NFL draft rapidly approaching, I've been making calls to my sources in the league to get a sense for when some of the big-name prospects could come off the board. I've compiled a bunch notes from those conversations below, starting with one of the questions I get the most ...
1. How many QBs will go in Round 1? My guess is three, based on talking to folks in the league: North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky, Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes. The one name I keep hearing a bunch is Cal's Davis Webb. Some people like him a lot more than I do. I'm not sure that means he'll go in Round 1, but he's a name to keep an eye on.
2. Alabama ILB Reuben Foster and Florida State RB Dalvin Cook are two players who have gotten a lot of attention in draft circles for off-field concerns. Their status varies depending on the team you're talking to, but Cook appears to have the potential to fall a little bit more than Foster. Here's the latest based on what I've heard:
On Foster: One person I spoke to said the Indianapolis Colts could end up being the parachute pick for Foster at No. 15 overall, given how they're trying to overhaul the defensive side of the ball. If he doesn't go there, the Redskins two picks later could be in play.
On Cook: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers really like Cook and will strongly consider him if he's on the board at No. 19. The concerns with Cook are who he surrounds himself with, so keeping him in the state of Florida would be a risk, considering that's where he went to college and grew up (Miami).
3. Are the Browns really waffling on taking Myles Garrett No. 1 overall? One person in the league told me you can bet as much as you want on Cleveland taking the Texas A&M pass-rusher. The biggest question facing the Browns: Do they sit patiently at pick No. 12 or try to move up for a quarterback? Everything I've pieced together is that they like Trubisky the best out of the quarterbacks. There's some thought that Cleveland might have to trade ahead of the Jets at No. 6 if they really want the North Carolina QB.
4. Speaking of the Jets: I've been getting mixed reports on whether they're really interested in Trubisky, or if they're just trying to making it appear like they are so some team (like Cleveland) trades ahead of them. The latter strategy would make sense. Think about it: If Jets know they don't want to spend the sixth pick on a QB, the best possible scenario is to have someone trade above them and take a passer, leaving one more non-QB for the Jets to choose from.
5. Two teams continue to come up in conversations about Mahomes: the Arizona Cardinals and Kansas City Chiefs. The closer we get to the draft, I'm not sure the Texas Tech QB will still be around when the Chiefs are on the clock at No. 27 overall.
6. One interesting nugget I've picked up on when talking to teams about quarterbacks: Those that don't need a passer prefer Watson. They cite his intangibles and the ability to raise his play in the biggest moments. Trubisky and Mahomes seem to be of more interest among teams that actually need a QB. I'm having a hard time narrowing down exactly where Watson will go.
7. From the people I talk to, the Carolina Panthers are getting a lot of love as a landing spot for Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey at No. 8 overall -- even if LSU's Leonard Fournette is still on the board. You can certainly make the case for the Panthers going that direction, considering they have a need at both running back and slot receiver, and McCaffrey could help fill both holes. One interesting connection: Lance Taylor, who's now Carolina's receivers coach, was McCaffrey's running backs coach for three seasons at Stanford.
8. If McCaffrey slips past Carolina at No. 8, New Orleans would be an interesting landing spot for him at No. 11, but I'm not sure how Adrian Peterson potentially signing with the Saints would affect that thinking. Regardless, there's a strong likelihood New Orleans will end up taking a pass-rusher or defensive back at No. 11. Three names to keep an eye on: Tennessee DE Derek Barnett, Temple ILB Haason Reddikk and Ohio State S Malik Hooker. During the Saints' three-year playoff drought, they've ranked near the bottom of the league in a host of defensive categories, including points per game. It wouldn't surprise me to see New Orleans use each of its first-round picks to address its defense.
9. Everyone I've talked to has mentioned the same three teams as being the most interested in trading down. Let's run through them individually:
Tennessee Titans: This is the team in the top 10 that's most likely to trade down. Jon Robinson showed a willingness to move up and down the board in his first draft as GM, and the Titans want to recoup the second-rounder they lost in the deal to move up and draft OT Jack Conklinlast year. So there could be mutual interest between Tennessee and a team looking to trade above the Jets for a QB. If the Titans are unable to work out a deal, I'm hearing they'll take the best defensive back on the board, with Jamal Adams and Marshon Lattimore being the two favorites. Hooker, the Ohio State safety, is also an option, but his recent surgeries are a wild card.
Assuming they get a DB with their first pick, the Titans will be hoping that Clemson WR Mike Williams falls to No. 18, where Tennessee picks again. Based on what I'm hearing, though, Western Michigan's Corey Davis is much more likely than Williams to fall that far.
Chicago Bears: The Bears have five picks in the first four rounds, but they wouldn't mind adding a few more to the pile. If they're unable to find a trade partner, I keep hearing Adams' and Solomon Thomas' names come up in connection with Chicago. For a while I thought Alabama DL Jonathan Allen was in play -- and he could still be -- but I'm not hearing as much buzz about that anymore. Everyone is speculating whether Allen could fall over concerns surrounding his shoulder. I've gotten mixed opinions throughout the league on his medical prognosis.
San Francisco 49ers: The thinking here is that there's just not a big difference between a player you're going to pick at No. 2 and the one coming off the board around No. 12. Plus, this is a very deep draft in Rounds 2-4. The three names I hear the most for the 49ers if they're unable to move down: Thomas, Adams and Lattimore. Adams would make a ton of sense. He's probably the cleanest player in this entire draft, both on and off the field. It's not hard to imagine former safety John Lynch using his first pick as San Francisco's GM on Adams, considering it's a position of need.
10. Maybe it's recency bias, but it feels like this draft has more top players with character or durability issues than any other I can remember. Just in the past week, we've had Foster and Michigan S Jabrill Peppers test positive for dilute samples and Florida DT Caleb Brantley get charged with battery for allegedly punching a woman. More of my conversations than in other years seem to be centered around teams searching for the cleanest players in the draft. It's one of the reasons guys like Adams, McCaffrey and Alabama TE O.J. Howard -- all of whom could be top-10 picks -- are picking up steam while others are falling.
11. According to folks I've talked to, it's not likely Hooker comes off the board in the first five picks, but I feel really good about saying he'll be selected somewhere between Nos. 6 and 13. The Jets, Chargers, Saints, Browns and Cardinals all have a varying degree of need at safety in that range.
12. Reddikk, the Temple LB, really boosted his stock with his performances at the Senior Bowl and combine. Multiple people I talked to think he will be a top-15 pick and wouldn't be shocked if he went in the top 10.
13. Houston pass-rusher Tyus Bowser is another player who will probably go earlier than the public perception. I was told from a high-ranking personnel exec that Bowser will be a first-round pick. Multiple teams picking near the bottom of Round 1 have a need at pass-rusher.
14. Barnett, the Tennessee pass-rusher, is one of the most debated players within draft rooms right now. Those advocating for him point to his elite production, instincts and hand usage as pass-rusher, while others are holding his athletic limitations/tightness against him. He could come off the board as high as No. 9 overall to the Bengals, according to one person I spoke to. I feel good saying Barnett will end up being a top-20 pick when it's all said and done.
Here are a few other players being widely debated, along with the range in which they could be selected:
- Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama: Pick No. 15 to the end of Round 1
- T.J. Watt, OLB Wisconsin: Late first round to late second round
- Kevin King, CB, Washington: Late first round to middle second round
- Marlon Humphrey, CB Alabama: Between picks 20 and 50
- Adoree' Jackson, CB, USC: Late first round to middle second round
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