Kelley L Cox/US Presswire
The way things are going, Oregon will have a chance to celebrate in Miami.
One year and one week ago, we discussed the possibility of a one-loss Alabama team getting back into the BCS title picture after its loss to LSU. That team needed three undefeated teams in front of them to lose -- Boise State, Oklahoma State and Stanford -- and all three of them did. We know how the rest of the season played out.
Now this year's Alabama team, along with Georgia, is in a similar situation, needing two of the three undefeated teams in front of them to lose. But it's also a possibility that the Crimson Tide could be left out of the BCS entirely, as they are in my latest BCS bowl projections. Let's take a look at those projections for this week, as well as the next teams in line for each bid.
Discover BCS National Championship Game
Current prediction: Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Next up for BCS No. 1 and No. 2 spots: Notre Dame, Georgia, Alabama, Florida
Right now I've got Oregon playing Kansas State in the final, and unless one or both of them lose, I don't see that changing. If Notre Dame wins out and the Ducks or Wildcats lose, the Irish will move into the title game. There isn't any way a one-loss SEC champ is going to jump an undefeated team in the BCS standings; they'd have to be in front of them in the polls for that to take place, and I don't see it happening.
But as I mentioned above, it's too early to count out Georgia or Alabama. Consider this: Of the SEC's eight BCS championships, five were won by teams that had at least one loss.
I would be surprised if Oregon loses, but the Ducks are not invincible. And Kansas State hasn't been here before. The Wildcats finish their season against a Texas team that has better athletes than them, so I see that as a potential trouble spot. And it's possible that Notre Dame could be an underdog in its road game against USC.
Until one of the three undefeated teams lose, the five teams mentioned above make up the entire title picture. If one or more stumbles, we can start looking at the scenarios where a team like Florida could potentially re-enter the mix.
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio
Current prediction: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Next up for Nebraska's spot (Big Ten): Wisconsin, Michigan
Next up for Notre Dame's spot (at-large): Oregon, UCLA, USC, Stanford
The Big Ten side of this equation continues to be pretty straightforward. I'm picking Nebraska for now, because the Cornhuskers have a clear division title path, and I like them to beat Wisconsin in a championship game matchup. But both the Badgers and Wolverines are still possibilities.
The other side is much more complicated. If Oregon runs the table, which would put the Ducks in the BCS title game, every other team in the Pac-12 is likely to not be BCS-eligible. If that happens, I expect that the Rose would take Notre Dame with its replacement pick.
(One side note: If Kansas State were to finish No. 1 in the BCS standings, then the Fiesta Bowl would have the first pick of at-large teams, not the Rose. But I think the Fiesta would still take a two-loss Oklahoma team if given the chance.)
Oregon could end up here by losing to Oregon State and then winning the Pac-12 title, and UCLA and USC could still win the league and punch a ticket to the Rose Bowl. Stanford is still alive as well, but it will have to either beat Oregon Saturday or play the Ducks really close for that to happen.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Current prediction: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Next up for Oklahoma's spot (Big 12): Kansas State, Notre Dame, Clemson
Next up for Texas A&M's spot (at-large): LSU, Florida, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon
A two-loss Oklahoma team is most likely to land here. If Kansas State were to lose a game but still win the Big 12, the Wildcats could wind up here as well. If KSU wins out, lands in the national title game, and OU loses, leaving the Big 12 with no other BCS-eligible teams, the Fiesta could take Notre Dame.
As for the at-large spot, an SEC team is a likely choice here, assuming its champ winds up in the Sugar Bowl and not the national championship game. For the Fiesta, Texas A&M is the best fit (assuming the Aggies win out), because it's the furthest West, would bring with it a very excited fan base and has the most marketable player in the conference in Johnny Manziel. If Florida were to finish 11-1, it would be a tough call choosing between the Aggies and Gators, but I think they'd go with A&M.
Remember, this isn't about what's fair. It's about creating the matchups that are going to sell the most tickets and attract the largest TV audience. So while Florida would have a better record, including a head-to-head win over A&M, I could see the Gators getting passed over.
If the SEC champ does land in the BCS title game, then teams like Notre Dame (if the Irish lose), Clemson and Oregon (if the Ducks lose) are all possibilities to fill this spot.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Current prediction: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Clemson Tigers
Next up for Georgia's spot (SEC): Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU
Next up for Clemson's spot (at-large): Louisiana Tech, Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati
I'm picking Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC championship game, mostly because of momentum and how the Bulldogs have been playing compared to the Crimson Tide's recent performances. But if Alabama wins that game and doesn't crack the BCS top two, it'll be in the Sugar.
South Carolina has been my pick here in past weeks, but the only way the Gamecocks will make the BCS now is if the SEC champion is in the national championship game. They aren't going to be as attractive a choice to the Fiesta as they would have been for the Sugar, because of geography. A&M and LSU are also possibilities to land here.
As for the at-large choice, right now I'm going with Clemson (which would require the Tigers to beat South Carolina). But Louisiana Tech is a possibility here as well, in the event that the Bulldogs crack the top 16 and either the Big Ten or Big East champs do not. I think in that scenario, the Sugar would take the in-state Bulldogs, but the Big East champ would be another option.
Discover Orange Bowl
Current prediction: Florida State Seminoles vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Next up for Florida State's spot (ACC): Coastal champ, Clemson
Next up for Louisville's spot (Big East or at-large): Louisville, Cincinnati, Louisiana Tech
FSU remains my pick to win the ACC and make the Orange Bowl, but Clemson and whichever team wins the Coastal Division (it's far too complicated right now for me to pick one, and no matter which team it is, I think it'll lose to the Seminoles) could also land here.
Right now I'm picking Rutgers to win the Big East, because the Scarlet Knights will get to play Louisville at home and have momentum on their side. The Cardinals, Bearcats and Bulldogs are also in the mix.
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