WEEKAHEAD-AFRICA-FX-East African currencies seen under pressure next week
NAIROBI Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:36am EST
Jan 15 (Reuters) - The Kenyan, Ugandan and Tanzanian shillings are expected to lose ground in the next week after hitting multi-year lows, due to increased importer demand and a generally stronger dollar globally, traders said.
KENYA
Kenya's shilling is expected to weaken, undermined by importer demand that may pick up as the month draws to an end.
At 1218 GMT on Thursday, the shilling was quoted at 91.45/55 to the dollar, compared with last Thursday's close of 91.10/20.
During the session, the shilling touched a new three-year low of 91.50/60 to the dollar.
Traders said the shilling could test 92.00 to the dollar as firms seek dollars to meet commitments at the end of the month.
"From next week, we expect the usual end-month demand coming in. That is now going to be even more critical for the shilling," said Robert Gatobu, trader at Bank of Africa, adding inflows of dollars were limited.
The shilling weakened gradually last year, in part because of a downturn in the vital tourism industry in the wake of a several militant attacks. The industry, a major source of foreign exchange, is still struggling to draw back visitors.
UGANDA
The Ugandan shilling is expected to trade weaker on the back of soaring dollar appetite from commercial banks and the global strength of the greenback.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,893/2,903, weaker than last Thursday's close of 2,850/2,860.
On Thursday, the shilling hit 2,900/2,910 to the dollar, a level it last neared in September 2011, when it traded at 2,910/2,920, according to Thomson Reuters data.
"Every bank is going long and also hitting the psychological level of 2,900 is triggering fear," said Ahmed Kalule, trader at Bank of Africa. "People are also being unnerved by the dollar's appreciation against other currencies."
The local currency, which has so far lost 4.2 percent so far this month.
Since the second half of last year the shilling has been retreating although the pressure has escalated sharply in recent days, mainly driven by commercial banks' appetite for dollars.
Bank of Uganda, the central bank, has so far intervened twice this year to try to tame the depreciation although there has been little impact.
TANZANIA
The Tanzanian shilling is seen facing continued pressure against the dollar and could further weaken unless the central bank steps in.
Commercial banks in the east African economy quoted the shilling at 1,770/1,780 to the dollar on Thursday, weaker than 1,740/1,750 a week ago.
The last time the shilling was at its present level was in November 2011, according to Thomson Reuters data.
"The shilling is uncharacteristically under pressure at this time of the year. If the central bank does not intervene, it could further weaken next week," said Theopistar Mnale, a trader at TIB Development Bank.
"There are usually no significant inflows at the start of the year. Therefore if the situation remains the same, the outlook is for a weak shilling next week."
Market participants expected the shilling to trade in the 1,780-1,790 range over the coming days.
The Bank of Tanzania said on its website it had traded $23.8 million on the interbank foreign exchange market over the past week.
GHANA
Ghana's cedi is expected to remain under marginal pressure next week as corporate dollar demand climbs and major offshore inflows dry up, analysts said.
The local currency had been stable at the beginning of January until last week when it began to decline as greenback demand by local firms surged.
The cedi traded at 3.2350 to the dollar at 1238 GMT on Thursday, down 1.2 percent from January's open.
Barclays Bank Ghana dealer Michael Akpakli forecast that the local currency could dip further next week because of a lack of offshore inflows.
"Offshore (businesses), who were a major supporter of foreign exchange inflows late last year, have also shifted to the left-hand-side (buying)" Akpakli said, projecting this could drive the cedi to the 3.2600-3.2800 to the dollar next week.
ZAMBIA
The kwacha is seen retreating due to political uncertainty before a presidential election on Tuesday and as the price of copper, its major export, tumbles.
At 1238 GMT on Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa's second biggest copper producer at 6.5400 per dollar from 6.5100 a week ago.
"Uncertainty surrounding the presidential elections, together with a major decrease in the supply of U.S. dollars on the local market, could see major swings on the unit in the days ahead," the local unit of South Africa's FNB Bank said in a note.
Copper, which was pushed below $6,000 per tonne, was likely to put pressure on the mines and the local unit, it said.
The central bank was expected to be on the lookout to ensure the kwacha's stability and FNB expect a wide trading range of 6.500/6.600 to the dollar. (Reporting by
George Obulutsa, Elias Biryabarema, Fumbuka Ng'wanakilala, Kwasi Kpodo and Chris Mfula; Editing by Hugh Lawson)