PoorAndDangerous
Superstar
all of this is so insane.
Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade
- Thread starter Armchair Militant
- Start date
Thread
But I’ve been saying this for 2 years now and been saying gop is going to lose in grand fashion in Nov but you keep telling us the polls
DrBanneker
Space is the Place
That would be karma.But I’ve been saying this for 2 years now and been saying gop is going to lose in grand fashion in Nov but you keep telling us the polls
1/32
On the 2nd anniversary of the Dobbs decision, I figured I'd share a reminder of how abortion rights has become the most powerful single issue in politics, and is likely more salient now than it was in 2022.
2/32
When the decision was handed down two years ago today, it was a shock but not a surprise, given the leak several weeks earlier. We were left with an open question of how it might impact the 2022 elections. The first answer would come 39 days later, from Kansas of all places.
3/32
This election was chosen to be unfavorable to abortion rights, a GOP state in a traditionally low turnout election. The only public poll showed the constitutional amendment contest very close. I remember seeing this tweet not long after polls closed:
4/32
I wasn't shocked by the result, again, polls showed it close. But I was surprised that the margin was seemingly so large for the pro-abortion rights side that Wasserman could call it so quickly. I immediately set out to understand how this transpired.
5/32
Looking at new voter registrations in KS between the Dobbs decision and the primary registration deadline, I found a stat that I assumed I had miscalculated. So I ran it again and again. The same thing every time. Almost 70% of Kansans registering to vote were women.
6/32
I shared that finding in a tweet and a hastily assembled chart the next day. To be clear, I have never seen a registration surge among any specific group like this before, and don't expect to again.
7/32
The next day I ran a count of new registrants by gender in a few other states and found that substantial gaps were emerging in some places (WI, MI, CO), but not others (NY). This was the first sign of what we would see happen in November, an uneven effect.
8/32
Two weeks later, Democrats won a special election to the US House in Alaska. Then another the following week in upstate New York, where the Democratic candidate ran on abortion, and urged Dems to run fearlessly on the issue N.Y. Special Election Shows Power of Abortion Debate to Move Democrats (Published 2022)
9/32
In early Sept of '22 I wrote this NYT opinion piece stating my belief that abortion had reshaped the midterm elections, presenting the ample evidence from the August elections. Most of the political establishment seemed sold. Opinion | Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It (Published 2022)
10/32
Fast forward to October 17th. The NYT released its latest national poll, with shocking results. Independent women, who gave Dems a 14 pt margin in their September survey, had supposedly swung to give GOPs an 18 pt advantage.
11/32
What happened next should have been (and still should be) a cautionary tale when it comes to poll subgroup driven media narratives being treated as reality. This article, and the pictured paragraphs below especially. Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds (Published 2022)
12/32
Given the strong track record of the NYT poll, the results were taken as gospel for many. Dems had overplayed their hands on abortion, failing to focus on the economy and immigration, and were paying the price. Abortion had faded as a salient political issue, or so we were told.
13/32
I encountered this myself, when appearing on a panel on a CNN program opposite a GOP consultant. When I spoke about how I believed abortion rights would change the election, the host asked if that was plausible, given how long ago the Dobbs decision was.
14/32
Those polls were wrong. While the narrative today is that the '22 polls were historically accurate, the reality is they failed when depicting what issues were most salient. Nate Cohn later referred to this error as on par with the misses of '16.
15/32
So what happened in the '22 elections? In states and races where abortion rights were perceived as at stake, Democrats overperformed massively. MI, PA, WI, AZ, etc.. but elsewhere (NY, CA, etc), the election was as you would have expected in a "normal" midterm.
16/32
The lesson was clear - Democrats must put abortion rights on the ballot everywhere, be it literally, or figuratively through the messaging of the candidate campaigns.
17/32
In '23 I wrote a follow-up to my original NYT piece, making the case that abortion rights had only increased in salience. By then we had seen how GOPs had failed to run from their record on the issue in VA, and lost by massive margins in an OH amendment. Opinion | American Elections Are About Abortion Now
18/32
This year we had our first sign of the issue expanding into places where it hadn't reached in '22. The special election to fill George Santos' NY district saw Dems communicating heavily on abortion rights, and outperforming the polls and past precedent massively (and winning).
19/32
Here we are, two years later. There is little to celebrate in this post-Dobbs hellscape where millions of women remain deprived of a fundamental human right, thanks to Donald Trump's extremist judges, and GOP elected officials around the country. But there's also hope.
20/32
That hope comes from the many Americans who are organizing around this issue, fearlessly, holding Republicans accountable, making it clear that it isn't nearly enough to not pass a national ban, and that nothing short of restoring rights will be enough.
21/32
This is why I am confident that abortion rights will be even more salient in the 2024 elections, and those who run on the right side of the issue will stand a far better chance of winning.
22/32
Sorry, I went on a lot longer than I meant to, there's just a lot of data to share!
23/32
It’s like #10 on importance of issues in polls you shameless hack
24/32
I wish you'd try reading the thread before insulting a stranger on the internet.
25/32
Great thread. Thanks for posting this.
26/32
Your thread is very popular today! /search?q=#TopUnroll Thread by @tbonier on Thread Reader App
@DidRight34224 for 
unroll
27/32
28/32
29/32
Alas, no one appears to care about it anymore. Trump wouldn't be winning if it still had much salience.
30/32
Yeah women are pretty ticked off right now!
31/32
Thank you for getting this right. You’ve been accurate on this issue which has often been treated as a non-issue or secondary by others. It’s infuriating to not only lose my rights but to then have my electoral power treated so dismissively. We are righteously angry & will vote
32/32
TY for this great
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
On the 2nd anniversary of the Dobbs decision, I figured I'd share a reminder of how abortion rights has become the most powerful single issue in politics, and is likely more salient now than it was in 2022.
2/32
When the decision was handed down two years ago today, it was a shock but not a surprise, given the leak several weeks earlier. We were left with an open question of how it might impact the 2022 elections. The first answer would come 39 days later, from Kansas of all places.
3/32
This election was chosen to be unfavorable to abortion rights, a GOP state in a traditionally low turnout election. The only public poll showed the constitutional amendment contest very close. I remember seeing this tweet not long after polls closed:
4/32
I wasn't shocked by the result, again, polls showed it close. But I was surprised that the margin was seemingly so large for the pro-abortion rights side that Wasserman could call it so quickly. I immediately set out to understand how this transpired.
5/32
Looking at new voter registrations in KS between the Dobbs decision and the primary registration deadline, I found a stat that I assumed I had miscalculated. So I ran it again and again. The same thing every time. Almost 70% of Kansans registering to vote were women.
6/32
I shared that finding in a tweet and a hastily assembled chart the next day. To be clear, I have never seen a registration surge among any specific group like this before, and don't expect to again.
7/32
The next day I ran a count of new registrants by gender in a few other states and found that substantial gaps were emerging in some places (WI, MI, CO), but not others (NY). This was the first sign of what we would see happen in November, an uneven effect.
8/32
Two weeks later, Democrats won a special election to the US House in Alaska. Then another the following week in upstate New York, where the Democratic candidate ran on abortion, and urged Dems to run fearlessly on the issue N.Y. Special Election Shows Power of Abortion Debate to Move Democrats (Published 2022)
9/32
In early Sept of '22 I wrote this NYT opinion piece stating my belief that abortion had reshaped the midterm elections, presenting the ample evidence from the August elections. Most of the political establishment seemed sold. Opinion | Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It (Published 2022)
10/32
Fast forward to October 17th. The NYT released its latest national poll, with shocking results. Independent women, who gave Dems a 14 pt margin in their September survey, had supposedly swung to give GOPs an 18 pt advantage.
11/32
What happened next should have been (and still should be) a cautionary tale when it comes to poll subgroup driven media narratives being treated as reality. This article, and the pictured paragraphs below especially. Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds (Published 2022)
12/32
Given the strong track record of the NYT poll, the results were taken as gospel for many. Dems had overplayed their hands on abortion, failing to focus on the economy and immigration, and were paying the price. Abortion had faded as a salient political issue, or so we were told.
13/32
I encountered this myself, when appearing on a panel on a CNN program opposite a GOP consultant. When I spoke about how I believed abortion rights would change the election, the host asked if that was plausible, given how long ago the Dobbs decision was.
14/32
Those polls were wrong. While the narrative today is that the '22 polls were historically accurate, the reality is they failed when depicting what issues were most salient. Nate Cohn later referred to this error as on par with the misses of '16.
15/32
So what happened in the '22 elections? In states and races where abortion rights were perceived as at stake, Democrats overperformed massively. MI, PA, WI, AZ, etc.. but elsewhere (NY, CA, etc), the election was as you would have expected in a "normal" midterm.
16/32
The lesson was clear - Democrats must put abortion rights on the ballot everywhere, be it literally, or figuratively through the messaging of the candidate campaigns.
17/32
In '23 I wrote a follow-up to my original NYT piece, making the case that abortion rights had only increased in salience. By then we had seen how GOPs had failed to run from their record on the issue in VA, and lost by massive margins in an OH amendment. Opinion | American Elections Are About Abortion Now
18/32
This year we had our first sign of the issue expanding into places where it hadn't reached in '22. The special election to fill George Santos' NY district saw Dems communicating heavily on abortion rights, and outperforming the polls and past precedent massively (and winning).
19/32
Here we are, two years later. There is little to celebrate in this post-Dobbs hellscape where millions of women remain deprived of a fundamental human right, thanks to Donald Trump's extremist judges, and GOP elected officials around the country. But there's also hope.
20/32
That hope comes from the many Americans who are organizing around this issue, fearlessly, holding Republicans accountable, making it clear that it isn't nearly enough to not pass a national ban, and that nothing short of restoring rights will be enough.
21/32
This is why I am confident that abortion rights will be even more salient in the 2024 elections, and those who run on the right side of the issue will stand a far better chance of winning.
22/32
Sorry, I went on a lot longer than I meant to, there's just a lot of data to share!
23/32
It’s like #10 on importance of issues in polls you shameless hack
24/32
I wish you'd try reading the thread before insulting a stranger on the internet.
25/32
Great thread. Thanks for posting this.
26/32
Your thread is very popular today! /search?q=#TopUnroll Thread by @tbonier on Thread Reader App
@DidRight34224 for unroll27/32
28/32
29/32
Alas, no one appears to care about it anymore. Trump wouldn't be winning if it still had much salience.
30/32
Yeah women are pretty ticked off right now!
31/32
Thank you for getting this right. You’ve been accurate on this issue which has often been treated as a non-issue or secondary by others. It’s infuriating to not only lose my rights but to then have my electoral power treated so dismissively. We are righteously angry & will vote
32/32
TY for this great
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Are the Democrats going to work to vote into the federal law the "Right To Choose"? I ask, because they had the chance multiple times in the past, and yet did not do it. Will they do it this time now that the Supreme Court has pushed it back to the States to decide?
They want the women on board, every Democratic candidate from the Executive to the Legislative Branch in the next 2 years should be running on the issue of voting it in. Then, once they have the numbers in the House & Senate, they actually do what they promised to do...This time and not leave it as some wedge issue they can use every election.
Fix the damn issue this time, for good.
They want the women on board, every Democratic candidate from the Executive to the Legislative Branch in the next 2 years should be running on the issue of voting it in. Then, once they have the numbers in the House & Senate, they actually do what they promised to do...This time and not leave it as some wedge issue they can use every election.
Fix the damn issue this time, for good.
Infants died at higher rates after abortion bans in the US, research shows
By Deidre McPhillips, CNN
4 minute read
Updated 1:27 PM EDT, Mon October 21, 2024
The infant mortality rate was higher than expected in the US in several months after the Dobbs decision and never dropped to rates that were lower than expected, a new study found.
Cavan Images RF/Getty Images
CNN —
In the year and a half following the Supreme Court Dobbs decision that revoked the federal right to an abortion, hundreds more infants died than expected in the United States, new research shows. The vast majority of those infants had congenital anomalies, or birth defects.
Earlier research – spurred by a CNN investigative report - found that infant mortality spiked in Texas after a 6-week abortion ban took effect in 2021, and experts say the new data suggests that the impacts of the bans and restrictions enacted by some states post-Dobbs have been large enough to affect broader trends.
“This is evidence of a national ripple effect, regardless of state-level status,” said Dr. Parvati Singh, an assistant professor of epidemiology with The Ohio State University College of Public Health and lead author of the new study.
In the new paper, published Monday in JAMA Pediatrics, Singh and co-author Dr. Maria Gallo, a professor of epidemiology and associate dean of research with the Ohio State University College of Public Health, compared infant mortality rates for the 18 months following the Dobbs decision against historical trends.
They found that infant mortality was higher than usual in the US in several months after the Dobbs decision and never dropped to rates that were lower than expected.
In the months that infant mortality was higher than expected – October 2022, March 2023 and April 2023 – rates were about 7% higher than typical, leading to an average of 247 more infant deaths in each of those months.
About 80% of those additional infant deaths could be attributed to congenital anomalies, which were higher than expected in six of the 18 months following the Dobbs decision, according to the new research. Congenital anomalies can range from mild to severe cases, and some of the most common types can affect an infant’s heart or spine. In some cases, babies with a birth defect may only survive a few months.
“This is the tip of the iceberg,” Singh said. “Mortality is the ultimate outcome of any health condition. This is a very, very acute indicator. It could be representative of underlying morbidity and underlying hardship.”
Other research has found that births have increased in states with abortion bans, and experts say that some of that increase is linked to a disproportionate rise in the number of women who are carrying fetuses with lethal congenital anomalies to term.
“Whether the pregnancy was wanted or unwanted, we know that many of these are pregnancies that would have ended in abortion had people had access to those services,” said Dr. Ushma Upadhyay, an associate professor in the department of obstetrics, gynecology and reproductive science at the University of California, San Francisco. She was not involved in the new study, but does research abortion trends in the US.
Experts say that abortion bans can also affect access to broader health care, which can lead to increased risk for both babies and mothers.
“The well-being of a pregnant person is inextricably linked to the well-being of the pregnancy,” Upadhyay said. Abortion bans may affect access to and willingness to seek prenatal care and broader support systems, she said, and the barriers compound.
“People who face the most structural barriers in terms of poverty, lower levels of education, food insecurity, and other life stressors can’t access abortion care, and these factors also increase their risks of poor pregnancy and birth outcomes,” she said.
Infant mortality includes deaths that occur before a baby has turned one, so it is difficult to parse out exactly what was happening during the months that did see rates that were higher than expected, Singh said. But the timing – four, nine and 10 months after the Dobbs decision – line up with about the time that congenital anomalies can be identified in the fetus and a full-length gestation term.
“These studies are providing a signal that people aren’t getting the care that they need, and because of that, there are spillover effects,” said Dr. Alison Gemmill, a demographer and perinatal epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University who led the research identifying the link between rising infant mortality and abortion restrictions in Texas. “It’s never going to be the case that everybody’s going to be able to overcome the barriers of these bans.”