Republicans have long been fooled by PA because of all the small towns in the state. No Democrat has failed to get 242 electoral college votes since 92. The Republicans will always be in this position because they will always kowtow to social conservatives, I don't even think Trump cared much about issues like abortion but you cannot make it through the primary without that bloc. It even looks like Clinton will win by a wider margin in Pennsylvania because she is over-performing white female voters compared to Obama. Some of the states that used to be reliable Republican like Virginia, North Carolina have turned and in this cycle there is Arizona within the margin of error. The Republicans have not turned any reliable blue state except West Virginia but the Democrats there once gave a convicted felon 40% of their vote against Obama in 2012. Losing Texas would be a lock for Democrats with how the map already looks.