3. Minnesota Timberwolves | Northwest: 3rd
Conventional Wisdom: Minnesota is on the upswing, but let's not get ahead of ourselves -- at least until Ricky Rubio is out of street clothes.
Actual wisdom: Remember the Thunder! Is it heresy to think this team can be the next OKC, suddenly emerging from the NBA's netherworld to wreak havoc? Granted, Minny hasn't made the playoffs since 2004 and hasn't broken 30 wins since '06-07. But even without Rubio, the Wolves are deeper than ever. As long as Love, the league's second-best Kevin, continues to pack his own kind of MVP stat line, they will be fine. And if out-of-mothballs Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko have something to bolster the 25th-ranked D, Minnesota will be way better than that. -- B.D.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 57.9-24.1
If Rubio plays 60 games: 58-24 (2-seed)
If Rubio plays 20 games: 56-26 (5-seed)
4. Los Angeles Lakers | Pacific: 1st
Conventional Wisdom: Dwight Howard! Steve Nash! Kobe Bryant! Pau Gasol! How can the Lakers not be on their way to another title?
Actual wisdom: The roster is definitely stacked at the top, but then what? The bench remains a cobbled-together afterthought. Certain teams can get away with no reinforcements, but not this one: Bryant, Gasol, Nash, Metta World Peace & they're all on the wrong side of their career bell curves. Worse, Kobe is not gliding gently into his golden years. Last season, he posted the lowest true shooting percentage and second-highest usage rate of his career. What good is an A-list core if one of its members refuses to blend into the crowd? -- B.M.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 57.5-24.5
If Howard plays 60 games: 56-26 (5-seed)
If Howard plays 20 games: 49-33 (6-seed)
shytty list, even though it has my squad as #1 in the West.
leave the stat geek forecasts to Hollinger.