Saquon would have to lead his team to a deep playoff push, be the main engine of that success, and overcome the award’s natural QB bias for this to happen.
Let’s keep in mind that despite Saquon being New York’s best offensive weapon in 2018, the Giants still went 5-11. If they have more success this season, it’ll likely be because of some other element besides him. For example, Daniel Jones flashes the ability to be a genuine franchise QB or Eli bounces back. And that would tank Barkley’s MVP chances right there, because the QB would get the credit.
And while the team made some improvements to its O-Line and secondary, their pass rush is still suspect, they’ll be either depending on Eli or a rookie at QB, and they lack a genuine WR1 after trading OBJ. So I question just how much success NYG is really going to see in 2019. They’ll probably be better than the last two years, but good enough to make a big playoff push? Well, stranger things have happened…
And then you get to the fact that voters will be looking to award MVP to a quarterback first and foremost. QB’s have won that award over 70% of the time. And if someone like Baker or Darnold goes off in 2019, best believe they’ll be awarded MVP, no matter how good Barkley is. We've seen Bell, Zeke, and Gurley have amazing seasons and lose out to a QB. So why would Barkley be any different?
And in addition to all of this, Barkley will have to stay healthy which is never a guarantee – especially at RB.
So, in short, I really doubt this happens. There’s just too much working against it.