There was genuine risk of Russia using nuclear weapons at start of Ukraine war, CIA boss reveals
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There was genuine risk of Russia using nuclear weapons at start of Ukraine war, CIA boss reveals
Bill Burns says sudden breakthrough of troops in the north east of the country stoked fears Putin would use the most extreme measures
Dominic Nicholls, Associate Editor (Defence) 7 September 2024 • 4:41pm
CIA said there was a flurry of diplomatic activity over the risk Putin would use nuclear weapons in autumn 2022 Credit: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
There was a “genuine risk” Russia
would have used tactical nuclear weapons in the early months of the Ukraine war, the head of the CIA has revealed.
Bill Burns said the sudden breakthrough of troops in the north east of the country stoked fears
Putin would use the most extreme measures, causing a flurry of diplomatic activity.
Speaking alongside the head of Britain’s foreign intelligence agency, MI6, for the first time, Mr Burns said: “There was a moment in the fall of 2022 when I think there was a genuine risk of a potential use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Addressing the FT Weekend Festival in London, he added: “The president sent me to talk to our Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, at the end of 2022 to make very clear what the
consequences of that kind of escalation would be, and we’ve continued to be very direct about that.
“I don’t think we can afford to be intimidated by that sabre rattling or bullying [but] we’ve got to be mindful of it.”
CIA boss Bill Burns (R) and Richard Moore, chief of MI6, spoke about their fears over nuclear weapons being used by Putin Credit: Belinda Jiao
Mr Burns had raced to Ankara, Turkey, in November 2022 to confront Mr Naryshkin in what was thought to be the first in-person meeting between senior officials of the two countries since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In a statement issued at the time, the White House said: “He is conveying a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and the risks of escalation to strategic stability.”
In October 2022, fears were sparked of a
potential Russian false-flag attack after defence minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Ukraine was going to use a radioactive “dirty bomb”.
Russian state media claimed Kyiv was gathering nuclear material to use on the battlefield in a dirty bomb or “low-yield nuclear weapon”
The claims were immediately dismissed by the UK while Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said it was clear that Russia was itself planning a dirty bomb attack.
‘Deeply irresponsible’
Putin had previously used false accusations to justify his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
On Saturday, Sir Richard Moore, the head of the Secret Intelligence Service, better known as MI6, said: “There’s only one party talking about nuclear escalation and that’s Putin.
“It’s deeply irresponsible [but] nobody in the West is going to be intimidated by such thoughts or any other behaviour by the Russian state”.
Asked about the Kremlin’s continued stoking of fears in the West that the war in Ukraine might see nuclear weapons used, the CIA director said: “I had never thought, however, and this is the view of my agency, that we should be unnecessarily intimidated by that.
“Putin’s a bully. He’s going to continue to sabre rattle from time to time.”
Sir Richard said he and the CIA director were appearing in public for the first time to explain their work as they had to “earn [the] licence to operate in a democracy”
He said the use by Russia of criminal elements showed Putin was becoming “desperate”.
Russian intelligence services have “gone a bit feral” he said, resorting to “reckless” actions such as the Novichok attack in Salisbury in 2018.
Dawn Sturgess, a mother of three, was killed after becoming contaminated by poison used to target Sergei Skripal, a former colonel in the GRU.
Mr Burns said his organisation along with MI6 had provided “credible, early [and] accurate warning” of
Russia’s plan to invade Ukraine, noting many other Western intelligence agencies had dismissed warnings of a Russian assault.
“Almost all the others thought it was a bluff on Putin’s part,” Mr Burns said.
The joint SIS-CIA action “put Putin in the unaccustomed and uncomfortable position of being on the wrong foot,” Sir Richard added.
He said the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, which started on August 6, has “brought the war home” to ordinary Russians.
The Kursk operation had “put a dent” in Putin’s “cocky and smug” attitude, the CIA director said, although he said he saw no evidence Putin’s grip on power was weakening.
Sir Richard said the use by Russia of criminal elements showed Putin was becoming 'desperate' Credit: Sergei Ilyin
Speaking of the emerging axis of states opposed to the West, Sir Richard said there was “pragmatic cooperation” between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, but the relationships are of a “profoundly different quality” to that between the US and the UK.
Mr Burns said Russia will eventually “chafe” at being the junior partner to China, and that although Beijing is not thought to have directly supplied weapons, many dual-use technological items that could be converted for military use had been sent from China to Russia.
This has allowed Putin to significantly rebuild his defence industrial base, Mr Burns said.
The head of the CIA refused to be drawn on
whether Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia and said such a move “would be a dramatic escalation”.
However, he said the export from North Korea of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia has made Pyongyang a “more dangerous threat” to regional allies such as Japan and South Korea.
The SIS Chief said that despite Beijing’s increasing belligerence under President Xi, both he and the CIA head speak to their Chinese counterparts.
“Keeping those intelligence channels open is really important even in competitive relationships to avoid unnecessary misunderstandings,” Mr Burns added.
Both Mr Burns and Sir Richard said the international world order is 'under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War' Credit: Em Fitzgerald
Discussing the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Sir Richard said that without a ceasefire the world will continue to be in “a very highly fragile place in the Middle East”.
Mr Burns said after the “barbaric Hamas attack” the Israelis had severely degraded Hamas’s military capabilities. However, he warned that the “despicable terrorist organisation” is as much an idea as a military force.
Reiterating the need for a two-state solution, Mr Burns said: “In my experience, the only way to kill an idea is with a better idea, and that’s why it’s so crucial to offer some sense of hope for the day after [a ceasefire]”.
“It is easy to be a pessimist about the Middle East…but there is a possibility here that will offer, not just Israel but all our friends in the Arab world, the ultimate counter to the ambitions of this particular Iranian regime.”
Both Mr Burns and Sir Richard said the international world order is “under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War”.
In a joint article for the FT, they wrote: “There is no question that the international world order – the balanced system that has led to relative peace and stability and delivered rising living standards, opportunities and prosperity – is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War.”
