Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

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1/13
1/ Despite China's professed support for Russia, Russian drone-makers complain that Chinese companies are providing them with poor-quality, defective, overpriced components that are delivered late or not at all. They attribute it to China covertly seeking to weaken Russia.

2/13
2/ Russian drone manufacturers are heavily dependent on imported Chinese components. According to research by the Yermak-@McFaul International Expert Group, 67% of the components in the Shahed-136/131, Lancet and Orlan-10 drones come from China.

3/13
3/ The 'Vostok Battalion' Telegram channel reports that Ukraine's recent successes in its Kursk offensive were aided by a previously unseen ability to evade enemy electronic warfare systems. The Russians say they themselves lack this ability due to problems with Chinese supplies:

4/13
4/ "After the operation undertaken by Ukraine, military analysts subjected all the features of Ukrainian tactics to a detailed analysis. Technical nuances were noted that provided Ukraine with an advantage.

5/13
5/ "For example, the frequency ranges of the UAVs used turned out to be outside the range of suppression by our electronic warfare – shifted, as analysts say.

6/13
6/ "This allowed the units going for a breakthrough to act more effectively than it could have been with equal competitive capabilities. And what provides these capabilities? Or who?

7/13
7/ "With your help, we participate in this technology race, and being a small division by the standards of state corporations, we strive to be as flexible as possible: we constantly monitor changes at the front and make adjustments to the equipment that we transfer to the front.

8/13
8/ "But the most powerful obstacle in this matter for us is our dear China. Recently, we finally received a batch of components in the "shifted" range - that is, different from the most common ones.

9/13
9/ "Almost the entire batch turned out to be defective, despite the fact that the products were not cheap.

10/13
10/ "Delivery times, payment terms, quality of deliveries, periodic bans on shipping certain types of goods - we can say that China honestly follows all Western guidelines in relation to us.

11/13
11/ "Ukraine, however, does not encounter such problems - no one prohibits China from trading with it goods of either dual or direct use.

12/13
12/ "It is wildly annoying to feel such dependence on such a "friend" who will only be glad of our weakening - to bargain for even more discounts on oil." /end

Sources:

2/3 of foreign parts in Russian drones made in China

13/13
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[Won Won]

How the fukk do you start a war that kills hundreds of thousands and be mad no condemns it spilling into your backyard

Someone tell Putin it’s a special military operation and not an invasion

 

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1/10
1/ A Russian soldier captured by Ukraine recorded himself looting an abandoned house in the Kursk region. The video was reportedly retrieved from his mobile phone. It potentially corroborates reports of widespread looting from their own civilians by the Russian military.

2/10
2/ In the video, the man shows himself wandering around the house's ransacked interior. The building appears to have been damaged, probably by shelling. He complains that "the Ministry of Defence" (i.e. the Army) have been there before him and have stripped the house.

3/10
3/ At least three of his colleagues are visible in and around the building's garage. Describing it as "rich" (in loot, presumably), he says they are "cleaning it [out]".

4/10
4/ It's not clear which force the man is from, but his reference to "the Ministry of Defence" suggests that he's not Army. It's most likely that he's a member of the Rosgvardiya (Russian National Guard) which answers directly to Putin.

5/10
5/ The video helps to corroborate a report today that "rampant looting" by Russian forces has broken out in frontline regions in the path of the Ukrainian advance. It appears that the Russians are having serious problems with military indiscipline.

6/10
6/ The video suggests that both the Army and, possibly, the Rosgvardia are engaged in wanton looting. This is likely to have a number of seriously negative effects on Russia's response to the Ukrainian offensive:

7/10
7/ Time spent looting is time lost to defend territory.

Carrying loot uses up and slows down logistical capacity. (This was a major problem for Russia at the start of the full-scale invasion, when soldiers commandeered much-needed trucks to carry loot back into Russia.)

8/10
8/ Soldiers who are looting aren't likely to go straight to the front line – they'll try to get it to safety (and perhaps the nearest functioning post office) to get it home. Again, this reduces defensive capacity.

The looted civilians won't be happy, to say the least.

9/10
9/ The video suggests that there's been a major breakdown in Russian command and control along the frontlines – they would probably not be looting if they had an officer with them. The men in the video were most likely wandering around without any orders. /end

10/10
Source:



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1/11
1/ As Ukrainian forces advance in the Kursk region, law and order in frontline Russian-held areas is reported to have collapsed completely. "Rampant looting" is said have broken out – being done by the Russians themselves – while local residents say they feel abandoned.

2/11
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that "in the border areas of the Kursk region, where fighting has been going on all week, there are no police, no firefighters, no doctors, no representatives of the administration.

3/11
3/ "According to official information, more than 76,000 people left the settlements (most of them left on their own, since there was no organized evacuation, despite the statements of the authorities), but there are still people there, mostly elderly."

4/11
4/ The channel says that "the desertion of villages and towns has become a catalyst for rampant looting". The disorder is being carried out by the Russians themselves, though it isn't clear if opportunistic civilians or indisciplined soldiers are responsible.

5/11
5/ A local resident says: "They are robbing stores, there is a collapse in Korenevo, the “Magnit” [supermarket, pictured below] was simply destroyed. There is no water, no gas, no electricity.

6/11
6/ "There was no organized evacuation, and if there was, then why didn’t we hear anything about it in Lobanovka [an outlying area of Korenevo]?"

According to VChK-OGPU, "a similar situation exists in other border municipalities."

7/11
7/ It reports that "Kursk residents are sure that representatives of the [regional] administration, having abandoned people to their fate, themselves provoked the collapse in the border areas.

8/11
8/ "Currently, it is impossible to get through to the administration of the Korenevsky district of the Kursk region. People are forced to self-organise in order to protect themselves and their property and essentially perform the functions of state and law enforcement agencies."

9/11
Source:


10/11
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

11/11
Addendum: The Ukrainians have now published a video which shows soldiers, possibly from the Rosgvardia, looting an abandoned Russian house in the Kursk region. New thread here:


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1/11
1/ As Ukrainian forces advance in the Kursk region, law and order in frontline Russian-held areas is reported to have collapsed completely. "Rampant looting" is said have broken out – being done by the Russians themselves – while local residents say they feel abandoned.

2/11
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that "in the border areas of the Kursk region, where fighting has been going on all week, there are no police, no firefighters, no doctors, no representatives of the administration.

3/11
3/ "According to official information, more than 76,000 people left the settlements (most of them left on their own, since there was no organized evacuation, despite the statements of the authorities), but there are still people there, mostly elderly."

4/11
4/ The channel says that "the desertion of villages and towns has become a catalyst for rampant looting". The disorder is being carried out by the Russians themselves, though it isn't clear if opportunistic civilians or indisciplined soldiers are responsible.

5/11
5/ A local resident says: "They are robbing stores, there is a collapse in Korenevo, the “Magnit” [supermarket, pictured below] was simply destroyed. There is no water, no gas, no electricity.

6/11
6/ "There was no organized evacuation, and if there was, then why didn’t we hear anything about it in Lobanovka [an outlying area of Korenevo]?"

According to VChK-OGPU, "a similar situation exists in other border municipalities."

7/11
7/ It reports that "Kursk residents are sure that representatives of the [regional] administration, having abandoned people to their fate, themselves provoked the collapse in the border areas.

8/11
8/ "Currently, it is impossible to get through to the administration of the Korenevsky district of the Kursk region. People are forced to self-organise in order to protect themselves and their property and essentially perform the functions of state and law enforcement agencies."

9/11
Source:


10/11
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

11/11
Addendum: The Ukrainians have now published a video which shows soldiers, possibly from the Rosgvardia, looting an abandoned Russian house in the Kursk region. New thread here:


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1/11
Russians currently having a normal one on Telegram as they claim to be engaged with and destroying "two battalions" of the "French Legion," taking no prisoners, and looking forward to sending "thousands of body bags to Paris".

2/11
P.S I swear to god I can write and that absolute gore of a second and third paragraph is just me trying to maintain a faithful translation of the absolutely unhinged, fifteen comma, no full stop, writing style of the original.

3/11
“We’re not taking a single prisoner”, sounds a lot like “no quarter” to me. I love some casual admission of war crimes in the morning

4/11
He said it TWICE.

5/11
A thousand French mercs but they'll send thousands of graves? Empty or who else is going to fill them?

6/11
Mistranslation on my part, that word means "Coffins".

So they're basically saying they're going to send thousands of dead French legionaries back to Paris.

7/11
What's the name of that channel ?

8/11
"Srochneye Novostyi"
"Urgent News"

9/11
I like the image of graves heading towards Paris

10/11
It's 'coffins' I mistranslated.

11/11
Someone alert Napoleon!


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1/11
Kursk: Believing Putin is under pressure or has lost prestige is a Western perspective. Russian information ecology works differently. The Kremlin seems to feel secure. It has been transparent, sharing videos from SecCouncil meetings and governors' messages about the impact. 1/3

2/11
2/3 Second, Putin has used the situation to argue that "it is now clear why Ukraine rejects our proposals to return to the peace settlement plan." While Western commentators may mock Putin's "provocation" narrative as ridiculous, it resonates with Russian citizens in the country.

3/11
3/3 Third, there's a clear, long established distinction between the bad state bureaucracy and the "good" President. Russian milbloggers will blame Gerasimov (whom they hate anyway) and the Ministry of Defense, while locals will blame the incompetence of the regional governors.

4/11
Local residents don't seem to think it has been transparent, though.

5/11
Yes, that's true, but they still blame the state admin. I refer here to the overall communication policy though. The Kremlin was under no pressure to publish videos of meetings or let Kommersant publish the article you might refer to. Usmanov surely would've intervened if told so

6/11
That's why they've been broadcasting fake videos of Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian forces in Kursk, right? "Transparency"? Russian MoD videos claim “successful strikes” against Ukrainian forces in Kursk Region — but the footage is old and filmed elsewhere

7/11
Yeah, that’s why it took them 3days to acknowledge the incursion.

8/11
Why you would believe the statements of oblast governors in Russia is the more interesting information ecology aspect of your post.

9/11


10/11
kremlin ist transparent, lmao

11/11
Many politicians in the West seem to have lost the ability to put themselves into the shoes of others for the purpose of understanding the consequences of own actions. And many journalists, too, I should add.
At least thats how I perceive it.


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1/11
As I pointed out yesterday, the Russians are now taking very seriously the fact that the AFU in the Kursk region are here to stay. This morning, several bloggers are talking about this, warning that victorious reports are harmful. Dislodging even the existing group of the AFU will be extremely challenging.

2/11
That gives Ukraine enough time to start a referendum.

3/11
Super

4/11
"Forming false illusions in people..."

And he thinks that he's doing what exactly?
He's even paid to do it by Russia...

5/11
It's been a while since I wrote about Ukraine-Russia, but it's been a while since anything this big has happened in this war: my take on why this amazing Kursk operation has the chance to transform this war https://realcontextnews.com/kursk-belgorod-operation-ukraines-transformational-ace-up-its-sleeve/

6/11


7/11
Amidst all the ‘expert’ analysis of this ‘incursion’ it’s interesting that one outcome is the effective compromising of Putin’s strategy of freezing the war. Whatever else is achieved, that changes the calculus a bit.

8/11
All wars end with negotiations.
Ukraine didn't had anything to offer so far.
But Kursk, a NNP...
These are good to trade.

9/11
Oh well

10/11
FAFO moment.
Russians will need more of those because their level of intelligence is historically terribly low.
Slava Ukrajini!

11/11
Haha they still haven’t figured out they’re just Chinese slaves.


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Ukrainian STORMER HVM Downs 70 Russian Drones in Two-Year Span

The Ukrainian unit operating the British Stormer HVM anti-aircraft system has already managed to hit 70 air targets

mil.in.ua

12 August, 2024 Starstreak missile launcher of the Stormer HVM air defense system of the Ukrainian military. August 2024. Ukraine. Frame from the ArmyInform video

​

Ukrainian STORMER HVM Downs 70 Russian Drones in Two-Year Span​

Air Defense Occupants elimination SAM Ukraine War with Russia

The Ukrainian unit operating the British Stormer HVM anti-aircraft system has already managed to hit 70 air targets.

Soldiers of the 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment say they have managed to do this in two years of full-scale war.

“I’ve been serving since 2022, and since then the unit has destroyed 70 drones: Zala, Supercam, Orlan-10, Orlan-30, Merlin-VR,” said the Stormer HVM operator.

In addition to the skill of the operators, this result was achieved thanks to the use of laser-guided anti-aircraft missiles, which, unlike missiles with an infrared seeker, do not need to lock on the target by thermal signature.

The British STORMER air defense system destroys targets day, night, and in any weather. It is armed with Starstreak missiles.

Each missile has three “arrows” that separate in the air and hit the target with fragments.

A Russian drone was shot down by the Stormer HVM air defense system of the Ukrainian military. Ukraine. Frame from the ArmyInform video

The STORMER can detect targets at a distance of 18 kilometers, with a kill range of 7 kilometers.

At the same time, the launchers of the British anti-aircraft system can accommodate eight Starstreak missiles, with a total of 12 missiles.

Starstreak missile

“The missile is effective against aircrafts, nothing interferes with it. If a helicopter uses flares, the missile is guided by a laser to the target,” the military says.

In addition to the Starstreak missile, there is the possibility of using Martlet missiles, which provide a range of up to 9 kilometers.

The Ukrainian military said that, on average, it takes about a month to master the British system.

Starstreak missile launcher of the Stormer HVM air defense system of the Ukrainian military. August 2024. Ukraine. Frame from the ArmyInform video

The UK government announced the transfer of these systems to Ukraine in April 2022. Hundreds of Starstreak missiles have also been delivered for these systems.

 

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1/28
Russia begins its response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch:

2/28
Russia has declared its defense operation to be a "counter-terrorist operation" (KTO in Russian). This is a domestic operation and the FSB and Rosgvardia have roles along with the military. This is what the war in Chechnya was called from 1999 until it ended./2

3/28
Putin has instructed the FSB (+ its border troops) and Rosgvardia to defend the borders and assist this operation. He also told the military today that their main task is driving out Ukrainian forces from Russian territory and countering Ukrainian recon and sabotage groups /3

4/28
Who is responsible for what in Kursk? FSB Border troops and Rosgvardia have responsibility for the border and ensuring its defense. For the military: Kursk is located in Moscow Military District, but the troops forward deployed IVO Ukraine belong to the Leningrad MD. /4

5/28
The entirety of the area was formerly the Western Military District (2010-24). Russia decided to split it up in March-April 2024 to cope with NATO expansion. It named two commanders: Lapin (LEMD) and Kozovlev (MOMD). / 5

6/28
The Operational Group of Forces North received a name change and upgrade about 1-2 weeks before it attacked Kharkiv in May. Prior to May it was a territorial defense group. So for the past 3 months it's been transitioning from a defensive to offensive orientation, meaning /6

7/28
..that this Russian Op Group was much weaker than the others: from May - Aug it had a major reorganization, a new commander, and attacked Kharkiv early. It's MOD units are now bogged down in Kharkiv and that offensive is not making progress. / 7

8/28
Someone in Ukraine knew where to press. The AFU attacked a weak spot (Kursk) of the weakest Op Group. A C2 scramble between FSB border guards, Akhmat fighters, and any MOD forces that could rally ensued in week 1. /8

9/28
Russia has experience in creating a combined C2 structure that involves internal security agencies and the military from its experience in the second Chechen war. In the 90s, a joint command was established in what was then the North Caucasus MD HQ. /9
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1289/RAND_MR1289.pdf

10/28
I raise this because Bortnikov and Gerasimov worked with this specific C2 arrangement in Chechnya. While today's situation is much different, they remember how to work together. Implementation is a different matter of course, but I note the experience. /10

11/28
I haven't seen a KTO headquarters established yet. Who could lead it? All military district commanders are dual hatted as operational group commanders and their forces are engaged. MOD options could be: Lapin, Kozovlev, Nikiforov, Gerasimov. /11

12/28
It's Lapin's AOR, but Op Group North is weak. The territory is Moscow MD, but Kozovlev and many of his forces are in eastern Ukraine. Nikiforov is Ground Forces commander and former op group commander, his name is circulating online. Gerasimov also given the stakes/12

13/28
Rosgvardia's tasks will be to set up cordons, roadblocks, and other barriers. FSB border guards in the area have been taken prisoner already, to include conscripts , a very politically sensitive issue for Putin. /13

14/28
FSB assets will be doing recon and trying to sweep up AFU teams, and interrogation. Russian forces are already taking small numbers of AFU teams as prisoner. Here I worry about what comes next because the FSB uses horrible torture methods. /14

15/28
Russia's MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) is also now engaging with evacuations of towns. Russia is showing videos of some armor moving and eventually I would anticipate more helicopter, VKS assets. They will probably use artillery especially if the towns are emptied. /15

16/28
This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures. /16

17/28
AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins. /17

18/28
This war has left Russia's borders weak, the army engaged in Ukraine and not immediately available to defend border regions, and FSB border troops not supported. The Russian system's instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk. /end

19/28
Are there conscripts in the border guards run by FSB or did I misunderstand?

20/28
Yes— there are conscripts in the FSB border guard. There are conscripts in the Russian army as well.

21/28
Oh yeah they, got the brain trust together again. Those guys couldn’t change a lightbulb without 10,000 casualties

22/28
@Readwise save thread

23/28
@threadreaderapp please unroll.

24/28
@JD_Overthinking Hello, here is your unroll: Thread by @MassDara on Thread Reader App See you soon.

25/28
Please unroll @threadreaderapp

26/28
@LiliPapaveri Saluti, you can read it here: Thread by @MassDara on Thread Reader App Enjoy

27/28
Recommended reading @CarloMasala1 @Bundesheerbauer @Konflikt_Sicher @GresselGustav @Tendar @FHeisbourg @Phil_Eder

28/28
But can Ukraine (unlike their timidity in October 2022) truly exploit their initial success to gain major victory over Russians like destroying an Army Group or seizing hundreds of miles of territory? If this is just a raid it will amount to nothing.


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1/11
Russian channels report that Ukrainian attack drones are currently operating around Moscow, targeting Chkalovsky Airbase, home to a number of Russian special mission aircraft.

2/11




3/11
Location (55.8844031, 38.0512990)

4/11
Lmao. Imagine being unable to stop a bunch of modded DJI drones? And we're led to believe Russia is some big scary military superpower?

5/11
Nice

6/11
It's been a while since I wrote about Ukraine-Russia, but it's been a while since anything this big has happened in this war: my take on why this amazing Kursk operation has the chance to transform this war https://realcontextnews.com/kursk-belgorod-operation-ukraines-transformational-ace-up-its-sleeve/

7/11
Are they having any luck hitting anything?

8/11
Yikes.

9/11


10/11
Your thread is going viral! /search?q=#TopUnroll Thread by @Osinttechnical on Thread Reader App @rulepanic for unroll

11/11
Why are we allowing this escalation


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1/1
Ukraine currently controls about 1,000 km² of the territory of Russia, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi says.


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[Piff Perkins]

 

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1/1
A Ukrainian military unit driving through the centre of
Sudzha, Kursk Oblast.

Note how the town remains almost undamaged, unlike the majority of Ukrainian towns "liberated" by Russian forces, which are invariably reduced to rubble.


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1/11
Russian forces have set fire to a pile of tyres at the base of one of the cooling towers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

It's probably intended as a threat, even though it poses no hazard to the plant's nuclear reactors, which are currently all in cold shutdown.

2/11
It is a terroristic act however and its long, long overdue for the @whitehouse @VP to declare officially that /search?q=#RussiaIsATerroristState

This declaration would have a strong impact on russia's ability to fund its war and genocide machine.

3/11
It's evidently intended to convey "look what we could do, if you provoke us enough".

4/11
One thing this could mean is that Putin feels threatened by events in Kursk and now Belgorod. When Putin feels threatened his first instinct to to threaten nuclear mayhem. Would he cause a meltdown at Zaporizhzhia? Not if he believes it would spark a meaningful NATO response.

5/11
"Like"

6/11
That's a relief, if true.

7/11
Confirmation of that?

8/11
Take it back. Do it now.

9/11
Media stunt.

10/11
They would not dare, because it was very clearly explained to them that if the Geiger counters start to beep, they will start crying in Moscow.

11/11
Ukraine bombed it.


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