It's just one of many ways that Russia sows discord in the West. Weaponized migration, smh...
Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)
- Thread starter newarkhiphop
- Start date
You have people in the Senate last month saying the US should go to war with Iran. Yet weapons stockpiles are being drawn down for Ukraine and even the Israelis.
Excerpt:
The Biden administration is working with Congress to try and thrash out a broader funding deal that would include additional support for Ukraine.
However, weapons supplies are under additional pressure from the war in the Middle East.
Just ahead of Austin’s trip, a Ukrainian official told ABC News that U.S. deliveries of NATO-standard artillery shells to Ukraine have fallen "by more than 30%" since Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began last month.
155mm artillery shells are arguably the most important munition for Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian forces, and some U.S. stocks, which were designated for Ukrainian forces, have been diverted to Israel.
U.S. officials have claimed, on several occasions in recent weeks, that the supply of munitions to Israel would have no impact on the war in Ukraine.
"They (U.S. officials) were telling us it wouldn’t influence the commitments (from the U.S.), but it did," a Ukrainian official said.
The official, who spoke to ABC News on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, said supplies of these vital artillery shells make up "about 60-70% of Ukraine’s overall supply."
A senior U.S. defense official, however, said the reduction in munitions has "absolutely nothing to do with what's happening in Gaza." Presidential drawdown authority packages "start to get put together weeks in advance, so there is no link between what's happening in Gaza to what’s happening in Ukraine," the official said.
During his trip to Ukraine, Austin announced a new $100 million security aid package for Ukraine, which included an unspecified number of those NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells.
The latest U.S. military aid package is being drawn from existing funding which has already been approved by Congress. However, that pot of money is already running relatively low.
At the end of last month, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said he was "confident" the United States could "continue to support both Ukraine and Israel."
Despite receiving a wide array of weaponry from Western partners, Russia has key battlefield advantages such as more artillery firepower, more explosive attack drones and superior types, and greater numbers of fighter jets and attack helicopters.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have been trying to steal the initiative on the battlefield by launching significant attacks on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, in an interview with The Economist, recently described the war as being at "a stalemate."
Speaking in Kyiv on Monday, Secretary Austin insisted Ukrainian troops would "have the means … to be successful in fighting in the wintertime."
However, the Ukrainian official who spoke anonymously to ABC News expressed real concern about U.S. weapons supplies in light of the disagreement in Congress.
"We’re in big trouble … basic munitions are not coming," the official said.
The official warned that Ukraine risked losing its position on the battlefield "at a very high price."
Excerpt:
The Biden administration is working with Congress to try and thrash out a broader funding deal that would include additional support for Ukraine.
However, weapons supplies are under additional pressure from the war in the Middle East.
Just ahead of Austin’s trip, a Ukrainian official told ABC News that U.S. deliveries of NATO-standard artillery shells to Ukraine have fallen "by more than 30%" since Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began last month.
155mm artillery shells are arguably the most important munition for Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian forces, and some U.S. stocks, which were designated for Ukrainian forces, have been diverted to Israel.
U.S. officials have claimed, on several occasions in recent weeks, that the supply of munitions to Israel would have no impact on the war in Ukraine.
"They (U.S. officials) were telling us it wouldn’t influence the commitments (from the U.S.), but it did," a Ukrainian official said.
The official, who spoke to ABC News on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, said supplies of these vital artillery shells make up "about 60-70% of Ukraine’s overall supply."
A senior U.S. defense official, however, said the reduction in munitions has "absolutely nothing to do with what's happening in Gaza." Presidential drawdown authority packages "start to get put together weeks in advance, so there is no link between what's happening in Gaza to what’s happening in Ukraine," the official said.
During his trip to Ukraine, Austin announced a new $100 million security aid package for Ukraine, which included an unspecified number of those NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells.
The latest U.S. military aid package is being drawn from existing funding which has already been approved by Congress. However, that pot of money is already running relatively low.
At the end of last month, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said he was "confident" the United States could "continue to support both Ukraine and Israel."
Despite receiving a wide array of weaponry from Western partners, Russia has key battlefield advantages such as more artillery firepower, more explosive attack drones and superior types, and greater numbers of fighter jets and attack helicopters.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have been trying to steal the initiative on the battlefield by launching significant attacks on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, in an interview with The Economist, recently described the war as being at "a stalemate."
Speaking in Kyiv on Monday, Secretary Austin insisted Ukrainian troops would "have the means … to be successful in fighting in the wintertime."
However, the Ukrainian official who spoke anonymously to ABC News expressed real concern about U.S. weapons supplies in light of the disagreement in Congress.
"We’re in big trouble … basic munitions are not coming," the official said.
The official warned that Ukraine risked losing its position on the battlefield "at a very high price."
Russia offered to end its invasion of Ukraine if it dumped plans to join NATO, but Kyiv feared a double cross, says negotiator
Rebecca RommenNov 26, 2023, 9:22 AM EST
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Getty Images
- A Ukrainian politician said Russia proposed ending the war if Ukraine abandoned its NATO ambitions.
- Russia made the proposal during peace talks soon after the full-scale invasion began.
- "There is no, and there was no, trust in the Russians that they would do it," the politician said.
Russia offered to stop its invasion of Ukraine on the condition that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government abandon its ambition to join NATO, the Kyiv Post reported.
David Arakhamia, the leader of the Servant of the People party and the head of the Ukrainian delegation in the talks, said that Russia had proposed a resolution to the conflict in spring 2022.
Thepeace talks took place during the early stages of the full-scale war on the border of Ukraine and Belarus and in Turkey.
The Russian delegation reportedly proposed ending the war if Ukraine dropped its NATO aspirations and took a neutral position.
Arakhamia said that a shift toward neutrality would require a constitutional change, considering Ukraine's current constitutional commitment to NATO membership.
Arakhamia told Natalia Moseychuk, a Ukrainian journalist, that Russia saw Ukraine's neutrality as a key condition for a potential peace agreement. "They really hoped almost to the last that they would put the squeeze on us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality. It was the biggest thing for them," he said.
Arakhamia said there was a lack of trust in Russia's sincerity. "There is no, and there was no, trust in the Russians that they would do it. That could only be done if there were security guarantees," he explained.
Signing an agreement without such assurances, Arakhamia argued, would leave Ukraine vulnerable to a potential second incursion because it would have given Russia an opportunity to regroup and prepare for another round of military aggression.
War crimes
Communal workers prepare to carry a corpse in a body bag in a street of Bucha, about 18 miles from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, in April 2022. SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty ImagesFormer British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's unexpected visit to Kyiv on April 9, 2022, had an impact on the potential cease-fire. Johnson advised against signing any agreement with Russia and encouraged Ukraine to continue the fight. Arakhamia recalled Johnson's stance, saying Ukraine "shouldn't sign anything with them at all — and let's just fight."
While both sides expressed readiness for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, discussions abruptly halted when Russian troops retreated from Kyiv. The withdrawal exposed the extent of apparent war crimes committed, including the Bucha massacre.
Three days after Johnson's departure from Kyiv, Putin publicly declared that talks with Ukraine had "turned into a dead end."
NATO expansion has been underway since the beginning of the war, with the formerly neutral Finland joining in April.
Business Insider reported in January that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a miscalculation because the war backfired by uniting NATO in support of Ukraine.
While the bloc has been a crucial ally to Ukraine, there is a reluctance to initiate Ukrainian membership while the country is at war. The US opposes extending NATO membership to Ukraine in the immediate future to avoid escalating the West's tensions with Russia.
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@noelreports@mstdn.social)
Attached: 1 video The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense tested UAVs from six Ukrainian manufacturers for work under the influence of electronic warfare. One of the manufacturers is already ready to scale up production. At this moment, several hundreds manufacturers work independently on new UAVs.
Russian forces are crashing headlong into another city using some of the same catastrophic tactics that bloodied its army in Bakhmut
Jake EpsteinNov 26, 2023, 9:00 AM EST
Members of Ukraine's National Guard Omega Special Purpose fire a SPG-9 anti-tank grenade launcher toward Russian troops in the front line town of Avdiivka, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 8, 2023. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Serhii Nuzhnenko via REUTERS
- Russia has faced a slaughter fighting for the eastern city of Avdiivka.
- Ukrainian forces say they've destroyed heaps of armor, equipment, and personnel.
- Experts say Moscow has employed similar military tactics to those in Bakhmut.
Several weeks have passed since Russia began its renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine, and Moscow's relentless efforts to capture the city of Avdiivka are being met by a steadfast Ukrainian defense.
As the days go by, Russia's military losses continue to mount. War experts say the slaughter around Avdiivka bears similar hallmarks to the months-long battle for Bakhmut, where Moscow's catastrophic tactics badly bloodied its army, even though it eventually captured the city.
Avdiivka is one of a few areas across the sprawling front line that has seen "the most intense ground combat" in recent days, according to a November 18 intelligence update from Britain's defense ministry. There, it added, Russian forces are suffering "particularly heavy casualties."
Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic International Studies, said Russia's quest for Avdiivka appears to be driven by the same intent as with Bakhmut, which is the opportunity to pinch off a Ukrainian salient (a pocket of territory surrounded by the enemy on three sides).
"They've tried to do that many times," Cancian told Business Insider, including in Bakhmut and in other areas like the northeastern city of Izium. "That's a classic military maneuver, something that the Soviets did repeatedly in the latter days of the Second World War."
George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said Avdiivka presents a similar situation for Ukraine as Bakhmut did. If Kyiv loses the city, it won't necessarily threaten to completely unravel Kyiv's defense of the broader Donetsk region, though Ukraine will want to avoid letting Russia surround and trap its forces there.
Russian armored vehicles moving near Avdiivka. Screengrab/Special Operations Forces of Ukraine via Telegram
Russia is also employing a military strategy in Avdiivka that's similar to what it did in Bakhmut, which is sending forward a tremendous amount of combat power in brutal attacks — "throwing good money after bad," Barros told Business Insider.
Shortly after Russia began its assault on Avdiivka, a top White House said in mid-October that Moscow was again relying on "human wave tactics" — a gruesome strategy that was widely seen in Bakhmut — for its renewed offensive and was back to sending poorly trained soldiers into battle without proper training or equipment.
Combat footage that has since emerged from the area around Avdiivka shows what Ukraine says is destroyed armor, indicative of the heavy losses in personnel and equipment that Moscow has suffered during the fighting. Russian sources from the front lines of the slaughter have also pinned blame on a lack of coordination and preparation from military leadership, as well as unrelenting Ukrainian artillery attacks.
War analysts estimated earlier this month that in a period of three weeks, Russia lost more vehicles fighting for Avdiivka than Ukraine lost in several months of intense fighting in the south. Britain's defense ministry said on November 18 that small drones and artillery — including deadly cluster munitions — are playing a "major role" in the fighting there, citing eyewitness reports.
A Ukrainian soldier fires during battle in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, August 18, 2023. Libkos/ AP Photo
Ukraine's commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on November 10 that in the month since Russia launched its offensive against Avdiivka, its armed forces have lost over 100 tanks, 250 other armored vehicles, 50 artillery systems, seven warplanes, and suffered around 10,000 casualties. Business Insider is unable to independently verify these figures.
"That's a bad way to conduct military operations," Barros said, adding that it's a "needlessly costly" way to carry out offensives as Russia continues to fight attritional battles and incur more losses than necessary.
"Bakhmut was like that too. It was a tactical victory — I'd argue operational failure — contributing to the continued Russian strategic failure," Barros said. "Avdiivka so far, they've not even yet achieved tactical victory, and it's unclear that they necessarily will. But even if they do at this price point, I would characterize it as an operational failure."
But for all the similarities between the two bloody battles, Avdiivka is different from Bakhmut in several ways. For one, it's long been heavily fortified by Ukraine given its role as a strongpoint during the fighting between Kyiv's forces and Russia-backed separatists that began nearly a nearly a decade ago.
It's also a smaller city than Bakhmut (with a pre-war population of around 33,000 compared to 73,000) and is more operationally significant from a military perspective. While Bakhmut was a place for Ukraine to bleed and destroy Russian combat power, Avdiivka is right on the doorstep of Donetsk, a strategic region that's currently held by Moscow.
Aerial footage released November 2 by Ukraine shows a Russian armored vehicle exploding near Avdiivka. 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade via Reuters Connect
Maintaining this forward presence by Donetsk is important for the planning and phasing of Kyiv's future operations, Barros said, adding that Avdiivka is also seen as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance having been on the front lines of the separatist fighting for years.
As for Moscow's motivations in taking Avdiivka, beyond anything strategic, Barros said that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be seeking some sort of political victory that he can point to ahead of the country's presidential elections next year.
For now though, Russian forces continue to conduct "failed assault operations" near Avdiivka, according to an update from Ukraine's military on November 16, and the effort doesn't look like it's going to let up anytime soon.
Just as it did when Bakhmut became the focus of the war, the battle for Avdiivka appears to represent a shift in the war and the coming culmination of the counteroffensive.
"The offensive in Avdiivka indicates that the Russians now have the initiative, that the Ukrainian offensive is over," Cancian said, describing the current fighting for the city as another phase of the 21-month-long war. "These offensives don't go on forever."
Putin fears the wrath of soldiers' wives as the Kremlin tries to buy off potential protesters, report says
Russian troops and their relatives are increasingly considering extended rotation-free deployments unsustainable, the UK Ministry of Defence said.
www.businessinsider.com
Putin fears the wrath of soldiers' wives, as the Kremlin tries to buy-off potential protestors, report says
Alia ShoaibNov 26, 2023, 7:09 AM EST
A man walks past the Kremlin wall as the Russian national flag flutters above the residence of the Russian president in Moscow on June 24, 2023. NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP via Getty Images
- Russian soldiers and their wives are becoming increasingly unhappy with long deployments without rotation.
- The Kremlin is trying to prevent wives from protesting by speeding up salary payments.
- Wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers have proved influential in shaping public opinion in past conflicts.
The Kremlin is concerned that the disgruntled wives of conscripted soldiers unhappy with long deployments could become a significant political headache, reports say.
To prevent the women's discontent from bubbling over, regional officials have been instructed to give soldiers' salary payments to their wives as quickly as possible, two told Russian opposition outlet Verstka.
The Kremlin believes that most wives are more concerned about the paycheck than their husbands returning from war, the outlet reported.
The report comes after the wives of deployed soldiers held a rare public protest in Moscow on November 7.
The women gathered in the city's Teatralnya Square with banners demanding that their husbands be rotated away from the front line, the UK Ministry of Defense said, but police broke it up "within minutes."
"The apparently indefinitely extended combat deployments of personnel without rotation is increasingly seen as unsustainable by both the troops themselves and by their relatives," the UK department said.
Officials were also instructed to prevent protests from spreading at a three-day conference near Moscow, The Times of London reported, citing reporting by Russian outlet The Insider.
They were told: "Persuade, promise, pay. Anything, as long as it doesn't go out onto the street, in any quantity, even 50 people."
Recent requests by soldiers' wives to hold protests in Moscow and St Petersburg have been denied.
The Kremlin appears to be increasingly concerned with public discontent, especially with the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
They are "inexplicably concerned," think tank The Institute for the Study of War said in a recent update, considering "apparent widespread Russian approval" of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Levada Center, an independent Russian polling organization, said that 82% of Russians approve of Putin as of October 2023.
Some analysts note that the accuracy of these polls are unclear, as many fear expressing opposition to Putin.
But Putin faces no serious threats at the ballot box because of long-term crackdowns on the opposition and the prevalence of state-controlled media.
However, in previous Russian conflicts in Afghanistan and Chechnya, wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers have proved influential in shaping public opinion, and analysts believe Putin fears they could become the kernel of an anti-war movement.
"In a country without an independent media or other effective systems of government oversight, and that has repressive state policies toward all kinds of civil society activism, mothers and wives are really the only legitimate critics of the military," wrote openDemocracy, an independent international media platform.
The war in Ukraine has put Putin under pressure, with international sanctions hitting the economy, and the partial mobilization of more than 300,000 reservists sparking protests in September last year.
The Russian Central Election Commission chairperson, Ella Pamfilova, made claims this week about Russians who have left the country trying to discredit the upcoming elections.
The ISW noted that her statements suggest "the Russian government will continue to intensify censorship efforts under the guise of fighting attempted internal election meddling ahead of the presidential elections."
"The Kremlin believes that most wives are more concerned about the paycheck than their husbands returning from war"
damn russia is a cold cold place.
damn russia is a cold cold place.
Ukraine getting warships? 
How are they gonna get to the Black Sea. Doesn't Turkey keep warships from entering or leaving under the Montreux Convention or can they just as easily turn a blind eye and let whatever in or out?
www.pravda.com.ua
How are they gonna get to the Black Sea. Doesn't Turkey keep warships from entering or leaving under the Montreux Convention or can they just as easily turn a blind eye and let whatever in or out?
Zelenskyy: Ukraine to receive warships to escort vessels in Black Sea grain corridor
Ukraine has arranged with its partners that it will be receiving warships to ensure the safety of ships in the grain corridor in the Black Sea.
www.pravda.com.ua
Turkey playing both sides 
you honestly would have to be an idiot to buy russian weapons at this point. their shyt sucks and they're keeping the best. imagine the shyt they'll sell you. might as well burn your money.
Erdogan looking at his S-400's like
