RFE/RL: Whether or not Russia did it, it will impede the Ukrainian counteroffensive and buy the Russians time. Would that be a fair assessment?
Ryan: Absolutely. From the Ukrainian side, the flooding has to delay any major operation or movement in that region. It may be that Ukraine had foreseen the flooding and the breaking of the dam, and maybe they hadn't planned for their major offensive to be in that area. But whatever was planned will be delayed, at the very least, and slowed down.
RFE/RL: Some claim Russia has shot itself in the foot by depriving the north of Crimea water supply from the Nova Karkhovka dam "for decades." Others claim it's not likely to have any significant effect as Crimea was also supplied from Russia for the past eight years, between the 2014 annexation and last year's full-scale invasion.
Ryan: The destruction of the dam creates a more serious problem than existed when Ukraine owned the territory and had simply cut off the canal to deprive Crimea of freshwater.
The Russians coped with that over the years, so we know that the Russians are able to cope without the water from the north and they will likely do so for a while. But the destruction of the dam makes restarting that waterflow a much more difficult problem even if the war ended today.
This will take a long time for Russia to regain water from the north, the major source of water into the region, and this will have an impact not only on the people and the civilian communities but also on the military and its operations out of the Crimean Peninsula.
RETIRED US GENERAL opinion on War
----
