at this point anything is possible, he’s feeling pretty confident right now
This is a lot more dangerous than people want to admit. European Wars always have a tendency to spread and unlike the prior occupations this looks like a war
The Red Flag/Cold War II has officially started. Are you dense? Putin is going West. You probably didn't think Putin would attack western Ukraine.
This is just the Russian version of "shock and awe." Hoping to push Ukraine to negotiating table before a full on invasion. Obviously this is compelling news so everyone will be talking about how this might be WoRLD waR 3!!!
The US and EU/NATO has known this day was coming for years.
If they actually cared to prevent this from happening they would've allowed Ukraine into NATO.
Most of the messaging coming out now from the US/Europe is for public consumption. They want you guys to think that they are "shocked" and "appalled" by Putin's behavior bc that keeps your energy on Russian misbehavior/belligerence, rather than the weakness (and greed) of SUCCESSIVE US and European governments which basically rolled out a red carpet for this invasion.
If you guys really want to understand this process you should go to
WaPo Columnist Jamal Khashoggi killed by Saudis in Turkey; Senators Mull Magnitsky Sanctions
Remember when Khashoggi's murder was all that everyone wanted to talk about? How it was going to fundamentally change US Saudi relationship?
Remember how the media was all up in arms about one of their own being murdered?
Remember all of the big time CEOs pulling out of the Davos Conference being held in Saudi Arabia?
But then nothing happened, the world moved on.
I said this EXACTLY one month ago (JANUARY 24).
Everything the US and EU are doing and saying right now is just to save face - they have already sacrificed Ukraine.
The Germans need Russian gas.
The British are addicted to Russian money.
The French actually like Putin.
The US would happily allow Putin to take Eastern Ukraine in exchange for help with issues like Iran and to chill out with hacking US computer networks.
A week later I pointed out the following:
Kremlin Slams ‘Alarming’ British Threat to Seize Oligarchs’ Property - The Moscow Times
This is the only thing putin fears. Remember that Russia is actually ruled as a partnership. Putin is the face/elected leader. The oligarchs/intel services are his constituency. It's one of those uneasy alliances. Putin can't allow the oligarchs to be sanctioned etc bc that fuks up all of their money. If he can't successfully use the Russian state to protect their interests they can easily replace him. At the same time the oligarchs as a whole have to help project the notion that putin is all powerful...if individual oligarchs start challenging him or act in a way that undermines their authority he will punish them, either publicly (remember those videos of putin embarrassing deripaska, or look at what he did to khorodovsky) or privately (killing Berezovsky).
Whatever sanctions imposed right now will end up falling on the backs of ordinary Russians, not the power structure. And that is by design. These sanctions are again for public consumption purposes. It makes people think that the US/EU is standing up to Russia bc they are only looking on the surface. When push comes to shove any sanctions that would DIRECTLY attack Putin's power base are REJECTED. Germany is REFUSING to block Russian banks from SWIFT and the UK will never go after illicit Russian money/assets.
Germany made a big fuss of not certifying Nordstream 2, but again this is a MEANINGLESS gesture. First of all the pipeline is ALREADY BUILT and the EU financed it. There is ZERO percent chance that the Germans, Brits etc are going to be OK with having spent billions of dollars to build a pipeline and just let it sit unused. Secondly, the pipeline wasn't even scheduled to be open for use until the end of the year (by which point no one will even give a fukk about Ukraine anymore). Finally the EU has been preparing for this and have already imported a ton of gas from the US to make sure any short term supply issues can be mitigated.
Oil at $125 and rising
who said the commodity booms are dead?
Germany only cares about oil /energy prices
EXACTLY. One of the things trump did successfully was to convince the Germans to create more space between themselves and the US. In their minds why provoke the Russians (who don't pose a danger to Germany) if in 2 years the next GOP president goes back to kissing Russian ass?
"Respect for US foreign policy threats is the lowest it's ever been in modern history. It is too late to stop Putin if they decide to launch a war. If they don't attack it means they've exacted a HUGE concession (bribe) from the US/EU. Another part of me thinks he's also motivated to stir shyt up bc it keeps oil prices high. Russia has been making BANK recently. Maybe they're worried that if the world economy starts cooling down, falling oil prices will take big chunk from bottom line."
That started the clock to this shyt. That’s one of the things I didn’t forget from the Kiev Beyond Thunderdome thread in 2014. It was clear that Ukraine was a red line then and is still a red line now.
Russia has been crossing so called red lines since 2007/8 with no real response.
People are failing to understand that Putin is exactly what we have been joking about for years. Dude is hardcore ex KGB, he is not going out like Sadam or Gaddafi, dude has literally said he will take half of the civilized world with him.
Breh why is everything the end of the world with you lol. Now that COVID is no longer going to kill us all now it's nuclear war
Doesn't Putin have Parkinson's or something? Dude seems like a maniac rn. If u not gonna occupy Ukraine, then what r u going to do?
He's going to occupy big chunk of Eastern Ukraine. With US/EU tacit approval.
Said this Monday
They'll take over parts of Ukraine. Sanctions will be imposed, Russia will suffer economically, Putin and Co. will blame the west for Russian troubles, sanctions regime will be weakened or circumvented so zero chance it will affect Russian behavior.
Then in 6 months the media and a lot of you guys will move onto concentrating fully on midterm elections.