Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)
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Kremlin Bans Sales of Russian Oil to Countries That Impose Price Cap
The action follows moves by the Group of Seven nations that bar Western companies from insuring, financing or shipping Russian crude at above $60 a barrel.
www.wsj.com
Opinion | Putin Can’t Count on the Global Oil Market
The Russian ruler quotes Milton Friedman, but cuts in production could harm Russia and its allies.
www.wsj.com
Putin Can’t Count on the Global Oil Market - WSJ
Dec. 26, 2022 at 3:10 pm ET
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The oil market became truly global only three decades ago with the collapse of both the Soviet Union and the barriers created during the Bolshevik Revolution a century earlier. That coincided with the economic rise of China, which turned an energy self-sufficient albeit poor country into the world’s largest importer of oil. While there have been some restrictions in the global market since then—notably, sanctions on Iran and Venezuela—economic efficiency has largely determined how barrels flowed around the globe.
Until now. In the months following Mr. Putin’s invasion, the European Union and the U.K. announced they would prohibit the import of Russian crude oil effective Dec. 5. They also agreed to ban insurance and shipping “services” by their companies for Russian crude-oil shipments anywhere in the world. This meant that Moscow would be cut off from what had been its largest market—nearly four million barrels a day—and that much of the world’s tanker fleet would no longer be able to carry Russian barrels.
The U.S. was alarmed by Europe’s impending prohibition, fearing it could lead to a world oil shortage and spike in prices. Thus the Biden administration developed an ingenious idea: a price cap. The policy is intended to keep Russian oil flowing while reducing the Kremlin’s earnings from oil exports.
After intense negotiation, the U.S., EU and Group of Seven adopted a cap at $60 a barrel, to be reviewed periodically. As long as Russian oil is bought below $60, a trader can handle it, a broker can insure it, and a tanker can carry it. The details of the cap are complicated. Players along the value chain, from initial purchaser to shippers, must “attest” that they didn’t exceed the price cap. The penalties range from public shaming by their governments to large fines and outright sanctions.
The policy is working so far, thanks to a slowing world economy that has weakened petroleum prices, fear of unknown liability among market actors for violating the cap, and higher tanker rates. The current price of Russia’s main export barrel is in the mid-$40s—about 45% below the benchmark price for oil and more than 33% below the estimated $70 price on which Russia’s 2023 budget is based. This steep drop is welcomed by countries like India, which imports 85% of its oil and has gone from a negligible importer of Russian oil to vying with China to be the largest importer, albeit at heavily discounted prices.
Weak global economic growth will continue to facilitate the effectiveness of the price cap, keeping the market in a surplus and holding prices down. That could change if global oil demand spikes—say, on the heels of China’s lifting its zero-Covid policy. But such a rebound is down the road.
The more immediate challenge comes in February, when the price cap will be extended to “products” produced by Russian refineries. That includes gasoline and diesel, the latter of which is essential to European transport.
Mr. Putin, who has denounced the price cap as “stupid” and “robbery,” has made clear that he can’t stand Western countries’ setting the price of his oil. The Kremlin has assembled a “shadow” armada of 100 or more secondhand tankers that will attempt to evade the ban on Western tankers. Chinese and Indian companies can provide some of the missing maritime insurance, but that will still leave a significant gap.
The most potent weapon in Mr. Putin’s arsenal is a production cut. He has already pursued that strategy with natural gas, inflicting significant hardship on the Continent. In an October speech, Mr. Putin cited Milton Friedman: “If you want to create a shortage of tomatoes,” put on price controls, and “instantly you will have a tomato shortage. It’s the same with oil or gas.” (Mr. Putin noted that Friedman can’t be “branded a Russian agent of influence.”) He has renewed the threat of “a possible cut in production” and this week is expected to issue a decree banning sales to countries observing the price cap.
Mr. Putin has been nudging the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus—the group of oil-exporting countries of which Russia is a part—to embrace another production cut, but so far to no avail. In its place, Russia might cut its exports by a million or more barrels, hoping to tighten the market and send prices upward. The Kremlin might calculate that the resulting increase in price would more than offset the losses from the lower volumes of exports.
The aim would be to create a shortfall, additional economic pain and a mad scramble for supplies, with the ultimate goal that countries would be pitted against each other and the coalition supporting Ukraine would splinter. That has been Mr. Putin’s playbook on European natural gas, too, which he’s hoping will succeed this winter, possibly aided by further disruption in gas supplies.
Yet there’s a crucial distinction between the gas and oil markets—and an additional constraint with which Moscow must contend. Sharp oil cuts and the attendant price increases would be felt not only by European countries but also by those important to Russia, namely India and China, which together received about 70% of the country’s total seaborne crude-oil exports in December.
A Russian production cut would require more-intense collaboration among Western countries and companies, but they might be able to offset the effects by withdrawing more from the billion-plus barrels held by the U.S. and other allies in strategic reserves. Even then, such drawdowns might not be necessary given the current downward pressure on oil demand.
A production cut could well end up adding to the Kremlin’s long line of miscalculations. In cutting output, it would be assuming that higher prices would compensate for the reduction in volume. But after a spike, Russia might find that prices don’t make up for the lost production. The result would be a further cap on its critical oil revenue. And this it would have done to itself.
Mr. Yergin is vice chairman of S&P Global and author of “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations.”
not again 
www.businessinsider.com
Dec 27, 2022, 10:34 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to the welcoming ceremony in Yerevan, Armenia, on November 23, 2022.Contributor/Getty Images
A second critic of Vladimir Putin died Sunday after reportedly falling out of a window, Russian media outlet TASS reported.
According to reports, Pavel Antov fell from a hotel window in Rayagada, India, just days after celebrating his 65th birthday. He was visiting the state of Odisha in eastern India.
Antov was the chairman of the Committee on Agrarian Policy, Nature Management and Ecology of the Legislative Assembly of the Vladimir Region and was well known in the region, according to TASS.
"Our colleague, a successful entrepreneur, philanthropist Pavel Antov passed away," Vice Speaker of the Regional Parliament Vyacheslav Kartukhin said on his Telegram channel, TASS reported. "On behalf of the deputies of the United Russia faction, I express my deep condolences to relatives and friends."
The speaker of the legislative assembly, Vladimir Kiselyov, called Antov's death a "difficult and irreparable loss" in a statement on the website of the regional parliament, TASS reported.
Antov was a known critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the BBC reported.
The BBC reported that a since-deleted June WhatsApp message linked to Antov's account — and shared after a Russian missile strike in Kyiv that killed a man and left his wife and seven-year-old daughter wounded — was seen as critical of Putin's war in Ukraine.
"It's extremely difficult to call all this anything but terror," the WhatsApp message said. Antov quickly deflected on social media, insisting he was a supporter of the war and Putin, adding that the message came from a war critic with whom he does not agree and it was all a misunderstanding, the BBC reported.
Antov is the second Putin critic to die after falling from a window.
In September, Russian energy oligarch Ravil Maganov, 67, died after falling from a hospital window, Insider reported at the time.
The 67-year-old oil tyc00n died after his oil company, Lukoil, released a statement expressing "deepest concerns" about President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.
Another Russian traveling with Antov also reportedly died at the hotel in India on Friday, according to The BBC.
The BBC reported Odisha police Superintendent Vivekananda Sharma said Budanov died of a stroke. Sharma added that Antov "was depressed after his death and he too died."
Alexei Idamkin, The Russian consul in Kolkata, told the TASS that police did not see a "criminal element in these tragic events," The BBC reported.
Russian sausage tycoon Pavel Antov dies in Indian hotel fall
Meat millionaire Pavel Antov, who recently denied criticising the war in Ukraine, had just turned 65.
www.bbc.com
Another Putin critic dies after falling out a window
Pavel Antov died Sunday after falling from a hotel window in India, making him the second critic of President Vladimir Putin to die this way in 2022.
www.businessinsider.com
Another Putin critic died after falling out of a window
Rebecca CohenDec 27, 2022, 10:34 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to the welcoming ceremony in Yerevan, Armenia, on November 23, 2022.Contributor/Getty Images
- A second Vladimir Putin critic has died after falling from a hotel window.
- Pavel Antov, 65, died Sunday in India just days after celebrating his 65th birthday.
- A June WhatsApp message linked to Antov's account was seen as critical of Putin's war in Ukraine.
A second critic of Vladimir Putin died Sunday after reportedly falling out of a window, Russian media outlet TASS reported.
According to reports, Pavel Antov fell from a hotel window in Rayagada, India, just days after celebrating his 65th birthday. He was visiting the state of Odisha in eastern India.
Antov was the chairman of the Committee on Agrarian Policy, Nature Management and Ecology of the Legislative Assembly of the Vladimir Region and was well known in the region, according to TASS.
"Our colleague, a successful entrepreneur, philanthropist Pavel Antov passed away," Vice Speaker of the Regional Parliament Vyacheslav Kartukhin said on his Telegram channel, TASS reported. "On behalf of the deputies of the United Russia faction, I express my deep condolences to relatives and friends."
The speaker of the legislative assembly, Vladimir Kiselyov, called Antov's death a "difficult and irreparable loss" in a statement on the website of the regional parliament, TASS reported.
Antov was a known critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the BBC reported.
The BBC reported that a since-deleted June WhatsApp message linked to Antov's account — and shared after a Russian missile strike in Kyiv that killed a man and left his wife and seven-year-old daughter wounded — was seen as critical of Putin's war in Ukraine.
"It's extremely difficult to call all this anything but terror," the WhatsApp message said. Antov quickly deflected on social media, insisting he was a supporter of the war and Putin, adding that the message came from a war critic with whom he does not agree and it was all a misunderstanding, the BBC reported.
Antov is the second Putin critic to die after falling from a window.
In September, Russian energy oligarch Ravil Maganov, 67, died after falling from a hospital window, Insider reported at the time.
The 67-year-old oil tyc00n died after his oil company, Lukoil, released a statement expressing "deepest concerns" about President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.
Another Russian traveling with Antov also reportedly died at the hotel in India on Friday, according to The BBC.
The BBC reported Odisha police Superintendent Vivekananda Sharma said Budanov died of a stroke. Sharma added that Antov "was depressed after his death and he too died."
Alexei Idamkin, The Russian consul in Kolkata, told the TASS that police did not see a "criminal element in these tragic events," The BBC reported.
They dropped his friend too
Russian sausage tyc00n Pavel Antov dies in Indian hotel fall
7 hours ago
Antov had set up the Vladimir Standard company in the 2000s and became a well-regarded lawmaker in VladimirPavel Antov/VK
Antov had set up the Vladimir Standard company in the 2000s and became a well-regarded lawmaker in the city of Vladimir
Russian sausage tyc00n Pavel Antov has been found dead at an Indian hotel, two days after a friend died during the same trip.
They were visiting the eastern state of Odisha and the millionaire, who was also a local politician, had just celebrated his birthday at the hotel.
Antov was a well known figure in the city of Vladimir, east of Moscow.
Last summer he denied criticising Russia's war in Ukraine after a message appeared on his WhatsApp account.
The millionaire's death is the latest in a series of unexplained deaths involving Russian tyc00ns since the start of the Russian invasion, many of whom have openly criticised the war.
Reports in Russian media said Mr Antov, 65, had fallen from a window at the hotel in the city of Rayagada on Sunday. Another member of his four-strong Russian group, Vladimir Budanov, died at the hotel on Friday.
Superintendent Vivekananda Sharma of Odisha police said Mr Budanov was found to have suffered a stroke while his friend "was depressed after his death and he too died". The Russian consul in Kolkata, Alexei Idamkin, told the Tass news agency that police did not see a "criminal element in these tragic events".
Tourist guide Jitendra Singh told reporters that Mr Budanov may have "consumed a lot of alcohol as he had liquor bottles".
Pavel Antov founded the Vladimir Standard meat processing plant and in 2019 Forbes estimated his fortune at some $140m (£118m) at the top of Russia's rich list of lawmakers and civil servants.
He played an important role at the legislative assembly in Vladimir, heading a committee on agrarian policy and ecology. The assembly's deputy chairman Vyacheslav Kartukhin said he had died in "tragic circumstances".
Late last June he appeared to react to a Russian missile attack on a residential block in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv that left a man dead and his seven-year-old daughter and her mother wounded.
A WhatsApp message on Antov's account described how the family were pulled out of the rubble: "It's extremely difficult to call all this anything but terror."
The message was deleted and Antov then posted on social media that he was a supporter of the president, a "patriot of my country" and backed the war.
The WhatsApp message had come from someone whose opinion on the "special military operation in Ukraine" he strongly disagreed with, he insisted. It had been posted accidentally on his messenger and was a highly annoying misunderstanding, he said.
Several high-profile Russian tyc00ns have died in mysterious circumstances since the war began.
In September the head of Russia's oil giant Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, apparently fell from a hospital window in Moscow.
Russian sausage tyc00n Pavel Antov dies in Indian hotel fall
7 hours ago
Antov had set up the Vladimir Standard company in the 2000s and became a well-regarded lawmaker in VladimirPavel Antov/VK
Antov had set up the Vladimir Standard company in the 2000s and became a well-regarded lawmaker in the city of Vladimir
Russian sausage tyc00n Pavel Antov has been found dead at an Indian hotel, two days after a friend died during the same trip.
They were visiting the eastern state of Odisha and the millionaire, who was also a local politician, had just celebrated his birthday at the hotel.
Antov was a well known figure in the city of Vladimir, east of Moscow.
Last summer he denied criticising Russia's war in Ukraine after a message appeared on his WhatsApp account.
The millionaire's death is the latest in a series of unexplained deaths involving Russian tyc00ns since the start of the Russian invasion, many of whom have openly criticised the war.
Reports in Russian media said Mr Antov, 65, had fallen from a window at the hotel in the city of Rayagada on Sunday. Another member of his four-strong Russian group, Vladimir Budanov, died at the hotel on Friday.
Superintendent Vivekananda Sharma of Odisha police said Mr Budanov was found to have suffered a stroke while his friend "was depressed after his death and he too died". The Russian consul in Kolkata, Alexei Idamkin, told the Tass news agency that police did not see a "criminal element in these tragic events".
Tourist guide Jitendra Singh told reporters that Mr Budanov may have "consumed a lot of alcohol as he had liquor bottles".
Pavel Antov founded the Vladimir Standard meat processing plant and in 2019 Forbes estimated his fortune at some $140m (£118m) at the top of Russia's rich list of lawmakers and civil servants.
He played an important role at the legislative assembly in Vladimir, heading a committee on agrarian policy and ecology. The assembly's deputy chairman Vyacheslav Kartukhin said he had died in "tragic circumstances".
Late last June he appeared to react to a Russian missile attack on a residential block in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv that left a man dead and his seven-year-old daughter and her mother wounded.
A WhatsApp message on Antov's account described how the family were pulled out of the rubble: "It's extremely difficult to call all this anything but terror."
The message was deleted and Antov then posted on social media that he was a supporter of the president, a "patriot of my country" and backed the war.
The WhatsApp message had come from someone whose opinion on the "special military operation in Ukraine" he strongly disagreed with, he insisted. It had been posted accidentally on his messenger and was a highly annoying misunderstanding, he said.
Several high-profile Russian tyc00ns have died in mysterious circumstances since the war began.
In September the head of Russia's oil giant Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, apparently fell from a hospital window in Moscow.
ADevilYouKhow
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Whoops
ADevilYouKhow
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Bruh Russia is in shambles… their losing money in that India oil deal… their ally’s are falling back… getting bombed in Russia now… footage of bank runs… Zelenskyy went to the White House and kissed the ring, Biden states unlimited support and is sending the big dikks… And the numbers have dropped and they’ve lost 50% of their military.
Biden the next Roosevelt
Biden the next Roosevelt
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