The 49ers roster has gotten worse, so how does the team get better?
The 49ers roster isn’t as good now as it was 10 days ago.
How can it be? The team lost the anchor of its defensive line, the unit that more than any other fueled its 2019 turnaround. The 49ers also watched as the veteran receiver who made everyone around him better — including the quarterback — signed with a conference rival.
So how do the 49ers make up for the losses of DeForest Buckner and Emmanuel Sanders?
For one, we’re in the second phase of free agency, when teams start adding discounted veterans. The 49ers could still do that at wide receiver, tight end and defensive line (and linebacker; see the notes at the bottom), although it’s hard to think that incoming players at this stage would come close to having the impact of the outgoing players.
Still, there are other areas where the 49ers can make up ground. How does a team that fell short in the Super Bowl win the big game without an iron-man defensive tackle and a savvy, veteran receiver? Here are some reasonable possibilities:
Jimmy Garoppolo
The last seven minutes of the Super Bowl — as well as a persistent Tom Brady-to-49ers rumor — effectively smudged what was largely a
strong season by the 49ers quarterback.
Only four qualifying QBs had a better completion percentage than Garoppolo in 2019. Only two averaged more yards per attempt. Garoppolo made huge throws to either win the game or set up the winning field goal four times last season: against the Steelers, the Cardinals, the Saints and the Rams.
The theme that Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have struck repeatedly since the end of the season is that Garoppolo has room to grow. That’s what Shanahan is implying when he notes that Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield still has more regular-season starts under his belt than Garoppolo. He’s still a young quarterback when it comes to game experience.
There are two areas with room for improvement. The first is reckless throws.
Garoppolo’s 2.77 interception rate ranked 24th-best in the league this season and he threw two touchdowns against three interceptions in the playoffs and Super Bowl. (The last interception was a desperation heave when the Super Bowl outcome was decided.) Garoppolo’s main issue when it came to interceptions seemed to be not recognizing when a defender was lurking in zone coverage.
That’s something that should improve with more experience overall and more time in Shanahan’s system. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, for example, threw 16 interceptions in his first year under Shanahan. That number fell to seven in Year 2. Garoppolo threw 13 in his first full season under Shanahan, although he also had considerably fewer attempts than Ryan had in 2015, 615 vs. 476.
The other area in which he can get better is the deep ball.
Last year, Garoppolo attempted just 31 passes of 20 yards or more, according to Pro Football Focus, which was by far the lowest number for a 16-game starter. He connected on 19 of those passes — an excellent deep-ball percentage — but the long ball never has been a regular part of Garoppolo’s repertoire and his passes, even the ones that are complete, often fall short.
If the 49ers use their first-round pick on a burner like Alabama receiver Henry Ruggs III, for example, Garoppolo will have plenty of opportunities to sharpen his deep-ball delivery.
The draft
Don’t underestimate the lift the team’s draft class can bring, especially after the 49ers added the 13th overall pick in last week’s trade for Buckner. Last season, 49ers rookies played 2,988 snaps on either offense or defense.
One of them, Nick Bosa, was named the defensive rookie of the year. Another, Deebo Samuel, finished fifth among NFL receivers in yards after the catch and tied for first in tackles avoided, per Pro Football Focus. A third, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, made the 49ers’ defensive play of the year, one that was literally the difference between the No. 1 and No. 5 seeds in the playoffs.
The upcoming draft is considered the best in recent memory for wide receivers. If the 49ers use the 13th overall selection at that spot, the incoming rookie would be expected to become a starter right away and a No. 1 receiver over time.
The returnees
Three 49ers missed all of 2019 after dealing with setbacks from injuries. The team can’t depend on all three to be perfectly healthy for the upcoming season, but you’d have to think that some combination would begin to make up for the loss of Sanders.
Those three:
• Running back Jerick McKinnon. He has been fully cleared after undergoing a follow-up surgery on his 2018 ACL tear. Of course, he was cleared for practice twice last summer only to suffer setbacks and the 49ers won’t have full assurance until he plays in a real game. But if McKinnon, 27, does return to his pre-injury form, the 49ers would have an excellent pass-catching option out of the backfield. During the 2018 offseason, the last time McKinnon was fully healthy, he was very hard to cover and had an easy rapport with Garoppolo.
• Wide receiver Trent Taylor. Staying on the topic of players who have good chemistry with Garoppolo — Taylor obviously had that at the end of the 2017 season. It also was apparent before Taylor broke his foot in August. He was Garoppolo’s favorite training-camp target on third downs and around the goal line and was having a strong offseason. Sanders played 27 percent of his snaps in the slot after joining the 49ers last year. A healthy Taylor would help pick up that slot slack.
• Wide receiver Jalen Hurd. He’s another receiver who mostly lined up in the slot before suffering a back injury in August. Considering the one-time tailback still is learning the position and didn’t participate in position meetings, much less practices, last year, the 49ers certainly can’t rely on Hurd. Instead, he’ll enter the season as a de facto rookie, but a very intriguing one. Lynch has said that Hurd is on track to be fully cleared next month.
Law of averages
The 49ers are going to have injuries in 2020. There will be a major player — or two or three or four — who will miss multiple games in the upcoming season. But you’d also have to think the law of averages will kick in at some point and the 49ers will have a healthy season or at least be relatively healthy compared to the last three years.
According to the Associated Press, the 49ers went to the Super Bowl last season despite
leading the league in games missed because of injury. The team finished the year with 16 players on injured reserve while another 11 starters missed at least two games during the season.
One of those 11 was defensive end Dee Ford, who played just 22.3 percent of the team’s defensive snaps due to a combination of knee tendinitis and a late-season hamstring strain. The 49ers might struggle to duplicate Buckner’s production at defensive tackle, but even if Ford plays just a third of the team’s snaps in 2020, the team’s edge rush will be significantly better.