RamsayBolton
Superstar
It is true that current polling shows Trump faring better than he did with Black voters in 2020 and that the gap between his support and support for President Biden is far narrower than it was four years ago. But — as is the case with other apparent shifts since 2020 — that’s more a function of apathy about Biden than enthusiasm about Trump.
We have recent polling that allows us to demonstrate the point. YouGov recently completed national polling on behalf of the Economist that measured support among Black voters. Over the weekend, USA Today published polling conducted by Suffolk University that looked solely at Black voters in two swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Exit polling from 2020 (an admittedly imperfect measure) shows that Biden won among Black voters nationally and in those swing states by 75 points and 85 points respectively. Now, he leads by 49 points nationally, by 39 points in Michigan and by 45 points in Pennsylvania.
The polls suggest Trump has only added single-digit support. He’s up 8 points in Michigan (in a poll with a margin of error of 4.4 points) and up 4 points in Pennsylvania. Nationally, YouGov has Trump matching his support from 2020 exit polls. The difference is in Biden’s support, down 26 points nationally, and just under 40 points in the swing states.
That matches the extent to which voters view the candidates favorably. Younger and male Black voters were more likely to say they viewed Trump favorably than were older and female Black voters. Favorability of Biden didn’t vary much by gender.
Even among younger Black voters and Black men, though, Biden gets more support than Trump by a wide margin. It’s just not as wide as Biden’s campaign would hope and, in states that were among the closest on the map in 2020, that’s a source of concern for the incumbent.
Shame that black voters are still growing apathetic despite the fact that republicans would sue if anything specifically for Black voters was passed, as they are currently doing and have been doing since Trump's Supreme Court got rid of Affirmative Action for black people